Title: The knockout blow to AGW
1The knockout blow to AGW
The hotspot is missing
Dr David Evans
2Causes Leave Signatures
- Each cause of global warming heats up the
atmosphere in a distinctive pattern its
signature - Signatures are like fingerprints
3Signatures Are Important
- Most global warming debating
- points do not matter much.
- Signatures
- Are evidence about causes (rare!)
- Can rule out causes
- Can confirm or falsify IPPC Climate theory and
models quickly and definitively
4No One Knows About Signatures
- AGW proponents quiet about them
- 1999 Data collected
- 2003 Earliest technical publications
- 2007 First public outing
- Never published in mainstream media
- If signatures supported AGW, we
- would have heard ALL about them
5Observed Warming Pattern 1979 - 1999
No Hotspot
Broad stratospheric cooling
Height (km)
Pressure (hPa)
Broad tropospheric warming
US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) 2006,
part E of Figure 5.7 on page 116
This is ALL the data
6IPCC Models 1958 - 1999
US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) 2006,
Figure 1.3 on page 25
7IPCC Models 1890 - 1999
Volcanoes
Increased solar radiation
Increased greenhouse gases (other than water
vapor)
Ozone depletion
Sum of Signatures What IPCC models say happened
Aerosol emissions
IPCC Assessment Report 4 (AR4), 2007, Chapter 9,
Figure 9.1, on page 675
8Unknown Signatures
- Signatures of some leading possible causes of
global warming are unknown - Examples
- PDO, cosmic rays
- IPCC produces signatures, but vigorously ignores
non-human causes and so does not calculate
signatures for them
9Conclusion 1 IPCC Climate theory is wrong
IPCC Models 1958 - 99
Observed Warming 1979 - 99
- IPCC Climate theory predicts a hotspot
- There was no hotspot
- ? IPCC Climate theory is wrong
10Conclusion 2 CO2 is Innocent
Observed Warming 1979 - 99
IPCC Models 1958 99 Signature of warming due to
increased (non-water vapor) greenhouse gases
- To the extent that IPCC climate theory is
correct in predicting a hotspot due to extra
greenhouse, we know that carbon emissions did not
cause the recent global warming.
11IPCC Attacks the Data
- The missing hotspot
- Proves IPCC climate theory is false
- Undermines the theory that carbon emissions cause
global warming - Normally theory yields to data
- Too much money and power at stake, so...
- The IPCC chooses to attack the data and preserve
their theory without modification
12Santers Objection
- Stretches error bars
- Complex statistical argument that the hotspot
might be present yet went undetected
- But while an individual radiosonde might miss
hotspot, collectively hundreds could not - Radiosondes detect 0.1C, hotspot gt 0.6C
13Sherwoods Objection
- Throws away the radiosonde thermometer data
- Uses radiosonde wind gauge data instead
- Says the results cannot rule out a hotspot
- But thermometers are designed to measure
temperature, so its a bit of a stretch to claim
that wind gauges are accidentally better at it.
14Objections are Plainly Weak
- IPCC scientists do not claim that the hotspot
was found, only that we might have missed it
What hotspot?
US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) 2006,
part E of Figure 5.7 on page 116
15Water Vapor Feedback
The Heart of IPCC Climate theory
- IPCC Climate theory Any heating of the earths
surface causes a hotspot, due to water vapor
feedback
Increasing solar radiation by 2
Doubling CO2 levels
Theoretical Signatures From the GISS Model
16Responsible For Most of the Predicted Temperature
Rises
- IPCC Climate theory
- Water vapor feedback amplifies any surface
warming twofold
- Journalist Christopher Monckton has heroically
pieced together the most recent published
opinions of the IPCC into a single climate system
diagram
17dT ? dF / (1 b?)
? 0.313, dF 3.4 Wm-2 for a CO2 doubling
IPCC Values If b 1.80 - 0.84 0.26 0.69
0.25 2.16
then dT 0.313 3.4 / ( 1 2.16 0.313) 3.3
C
Low water vapor feedback If b 0.20 - 0.42
0.26 0.69 0.25 0.98
then dT 0.313 3.4 / ( 1 0.98 0.313) 1.5
C
18If We Turn Down the Water Vapor Feedback In the
IPCC Models
- Weak hotspot, compatible with the observed data.
- Reduces the predicted temperature rises by more
than half. - IPPC climate models much more stable
19The Big Temperature Picture
Dr Syun Akasofu, 2009 Heartland Conference on
Climate Change, New York, 2009.
20What Next with Signatures?
- Nothing
- Problem known for years
- Press wont touch it
- Even most skeptics dont understand why it is
important - Maybe IPCC scientists will announce that the
missing hotspot shows temperature rises wont be
so bad ? lose funding, jobs, status??? Ha ha ha.
21Science Was Always Irrelevant
- Science behind AGW was always weak
- Only evidence was old ice cores, 1985 to 2000
- By 1998 Kyoto, bureaucracy, roadmap
- Ice core data reversed by 2003. Ignored, even in
Gores 2005 movie. - Missing hotspot contradicts AGW. Ignored.
So what is going on?
22Follow the Money
- Skeptics and big oil
- 2 million per year on anti-AGW
- Big government and greens
- 2 billion per year on AGW
- Finance industry
- 120 billion traded last year, exploding
23Who Benefits from Emission Trading?
- Emission permits are created by fiat, out of thin
air, yet have value. - Trading favors the well-informed and those who
can move the market, so big financial firms will
routinely plunder the pockets of smaller market
participants. - The rest of us, one way or another, will pay for
both the emission permits and the trading profits.
24Banks The Big Picture
- 1. Fractional reserve banking 1694
- Banks create bank money
- Fiat currencies 1971
- Govts create base money
- Carbon trading 2010?
- Govts create emissions permits
We dont need any of these things, but they will
always be with us.
25Alarmist Science Used
- Skeptical scientists always ignored. Mainstream
never taken us seriously. - But alarmist scientists also irrelevant now. They
have been used. - Example James Hansens current call for a carbon
tax is correct and fair. But they are ignoring
you now Dr Hansen your baby is no longer yours!
26Missing Hotspot
Paper and Powerpoint available from