The%20Challenges%20of%20Promoting%20Safety

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The Challenges of Promoting Safety
Dr. Todd Curtis The AirSafe.com Foundation NASA -
Ellington Field 24 March 2004 Slides and other
materials at airsafe.com/nasatalk.htm
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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Agenda

• Some General Realities about Safety
• Marketing and Selling Safety
• How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question
• Marketing and Selling Safety
• The Sociology of Safety
• The Key Role of the Human Element
• Safety and Innovation The Challenges Remain
• Are You Better Than Average?TM

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Some General Realities about Safety

• Safety Touches on Many Areas
• What is Important is Not Always Obvious
• Perception of Risk is Often the Key
• Improvement Takes More Than Technology
• No One Can Do It Alone
• The Individual is Still Important
• Never Underestimate the Human Element

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Key Concepts

• Safety A Constantly Changing Concept
• Risk Probability and Consequences
• The Power of Storytelling
• The Power of Public Perception
• The Interactions of People and Technology
• Safety Failures are System Failures

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Safety is More Than Numbers

• Definitions are Very Flexible
• The Level of Concern Can Vary Widely
• Hard to Agree on an Acceptable Level
• Common Measurements May Not Exist
• Issues can be Subjective or Objective
• How to Frame the Debate is an Issue
• Cost per Life and Cost per Life Saved
• Accomplishing the Mission and Protecting Lives

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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The Marketing and Selling of SafetyWhy is it So
Difficult?

• Safety Comes at a Continuing Cost
• Costs are Measurable, Benefits are Not
• Costs and Benefits Happen to Different Groups
• Desire to Maximize the Bottom Line
• Building Codes and Bird Hazard Reduction

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question

• Understanding the Question is the Foundation
• Specifying the Question is Necessary
• Need to Know and Understand the Audience
• Managing the Process is a Key to Success
• Presenting the Answer is Part of the Process
• Example Airliner Deaths of the U.S. Congress

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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How to Ask an Aviation Safety QuestionKey Phases
of the Process

• Goals and Objectives
• Identifying and Evaluating Data
• Identifying Appropriate Analysis Methods
• Resource Management
• Task Management
• Presentation Design
• Administration

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Marketing and Selling SafetyThe Birth of
BirdStrike.org

• Bird Strike Community Spread Around the World
• Communications Limited
• Elmendorf AWACS Accident Key Turning Point
• Recognized Need for Controlling the Debate
• Pitched the Idea to the Key Stakeholders
• Prototype Site within AirSafe.com

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Marketing SafetyAirSafe.com Design and
Development Criteria

• Markets Journalists, Passengers, Aviation
  professionals
• Target Audience Was Worldwide
• Initial Focus on Passenger Deaths in Jet
  Transports
• Limit Information to Publicly Accessible Sources
• Overall Design Optimized for Fast Loading
• Three Click Rule for Most Information

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Marketing SafetyKey Realities of AirSafe.com

• Lack of Resources Led to Better Planning
• Technology Takes a Back Seat to Content
• Balance Between Perceived and Actual Needs
• Internet Technology Plays a Central Role

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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The Sociology of Safety

• Aviation Safety Is a Community
• Individuals Have Limited Power
• Change is Usually Evolutionary
• Dramatic Events Can Drive Technology
• Dramatic Events Can Change the Debate
• Safety Policy Exists in a Social Context
• Storytelling is a Key Agent of Change
• The Unwritten Code of Silence

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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The Key Role of the Human Element

• Human Actions, Decisions, and Judgment in All
  Phases of the Safety Process
• Role of Interaction of People and Technology is
  Getting More Complex
• Improving the Human Element is Not Easy
• Examples Cockpit Resource Management,
  Operational Risk Assessment

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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The Key Role of the Human ElementExample Why
are Some Accidents More Well Known?

• Public Policy Follows Public Interest
• Several Key Factors in Public Interest
• Body Bags with American Flags
• The New York Connection
• Public Interest Tied to High-Interest Events

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March 2004
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The Key Role of the Human ElementExample
AirSafe.com Traffic After Key Events
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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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The Key Role of the Human ElementExample
AirSafe.com Traffic After Key Events
Alaska Airlines
Concorde
American 587
9/11
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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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The Key Role of the Human Element Example
Operational Risk Assessment

• Basics are Widely Taught
• Can be Used at all Levels
• Issues can be of any Scale
• Works Best if All Relevant Parts of the
  Organization are Involved
• Assessment and Management Methods Allow for
  Effective Management
• Used Along With Other Methods

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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The Key Role of the Human Element Example
Cockpit Resource Management

• Recognition Came About Through Tragedy
• Necessary to Bring Change to the Entire Community
• Getting Consensus was a Long-Term Project
• Necessary to change basic traditions
• Widely Recognized but Not Universally Practiced

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Safety and InnovationThe Challenges Remain

• Higher Levels of Automation
• Unmanned and Autonomous Aircraft
• Unpredictable Requirements Evolution
• Sudden Appearance of New Threats
• Flight in Relatively Unknown Regimes
• Changing of Long-Held Assumptions

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Safety and InnovationWhat September 11 Revealed

• A Failure of Imagination
• Unwillingness to Debate Technical Issues
• The Separation of Safety and Security
• Catalyst for Rapid Change
• Relative Silence of the Technical Experts
• Extreme Social and Political Pressures

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Accident InvestigationA Once in a Lifetime
Experience

• Most Will Never Have Direct Experience
• On Site Investigation Has Many Players
• Most Personnel are not Safety Professionals
• Each Investigation has Unique Challenges
• Civil and Military Arenas Have Key Differences
• Process Can be Psychologically Challenging

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Accident InvestigationExample AWACS at Elmendorf

• Most Will Never Have Direct Experience
• On Site Investigation Has Many Players
• Most Personnel are not Safety Professionals
• Each Investigation has Unique Challenges
• Civil and Military Arenas Have Key Differences
• Examples of Psychological Challenges

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Are You Better Than Average?The Emotional Side
of Probability

• A game that illustrates the relationship between
  logic, emotion, and probability
• It also illustrates the likelihood of an unwanted
  event over a population of rare events
• Field tested from kindergarteners to PhDs
• One way to put risk into an easy to understand
  example

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Are You Better Than Average?The Rules of the Game

• There is one chance in three of a double or a
  seven
• On average, it takes three rolls for a double or
  a seven
• Get a double or seven on the first roll, you are
  better than average, if not, roll again
• Get a double or seven on the second roll, you are
  still better than average, if not you are no
  better than average
• If your emotions are bruised, keep playing the
  game until you win

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March 2004
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Are You Better Than Average?Possible Outcomes
Win on first roll, P(1/3)
Double or Seven
Win on second roll, P(2/9)
Double or Seven
No Double, no Seven
Lose on second roll, P(4/9)
No Double, no Seven
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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Are You Better Than Average?Expected
Distribution of Results
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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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Are You Better Than Average?Relevance to Flight

• Operational scenarios may look like an outcome to
  a game
• WWII example surviving 25 missions
• A 1 likelihood of a shootdown implies about a
  78 chance of making 25 missions (1st or 3rd
  outcome)
• A 2.4 likelihood of a shootdown implies about a
  55 25 chance of making 25 missions (1st or 2nd
  outcome)
• Acceptable losses for the fleet depends on the
  nature of the mission and the acceptance of the
  risk

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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B-17 Make it Home AliveThe Rules of the Game

• Same basic rules as Are You Better Than
  Average?
• Two versions 1 Risk or 2.4 Risk
• For 1 risk, 1st or 3rd outcome is a win
• For 2.4 risk, 1st or 2nd outcome is a win
• Unlike Are You Better Than Average?, each
  player only has one opportunity
• On a B-17 crew, there is no second opportunity

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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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B-17 Make it Home AlivePossible Outcomes for
the 1 Game
Finish 25 missions, P(1/3)
Double or Seven
Do not finish 25 missions, P(2/9)
Double or Seven
No Double, no Seven
Finish 25 missions, P(4/9)
No Double, no Seven
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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004
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B-17 Make it Home AlivePossible Outcomes for
the 2.4 Game
Finish 25 missions, P(1/3)
Double or Seven
Finish 25 missions, P(2/9)
Double or Seven
No Double, no Seven
Do Not Finish 25 missions, P(4/9)
No Double, no Seven
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Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24
March 2004