Standard presentation format

1
Standard presentation format

• 1st quarter 2012

2
Agenda

• Central banks objectives and structure
• Real sector
• Monetary policy
• External sector
• Banking sector

3
Central banks objectives and tasks

• STABILITY OF PRICES
• SUPPORTING THE ECONOMIC POLICY OF THE GOVERNMENT,
  WITHOUT PREJUDICE TO ITS PRIMARY OBJECTIVE
• Management of the international reserves
• Issuing banknotes and coins
• Issuing and revoking licenses for banks and bank
  supervision
• Regulating, improving and supervising the payment
  system
• Performance of operations on behalf of the
  Republic of Croatia, as provided by law

4
Independence of the CNB

• Institutional decisions are reached
  independently of other institutions influence
• Functional clear by defined goal and
  independence in choosing the instruments and
  measures for achieving that goal
• Personal guarantees the protection of the
  Governor and the Council members from various
  kinds of pressure, precisely determines the
  conditions for the appointment and removal from
  office, and guards against the conflict of
  interest
• Financial revenues and expenditures of the CNB
  are solely determined by the nature of the
  monetary and exchange rate policies

5
Structure of the CNB
6
Agenda

• Central banks objectives and structure
• Real sector
• Aggregate demand and supply
• Labour market
• Prices
• Fiscal policy
• Monetary policy
• External sector
• Banking sector

7
Real GDP rates of change
Croatia
Peer countries
Average annual growth rate, 2001 2010 Sources
Eurostat, CBS, national statistical offices
First three quarters of 2011At the end of 2010
CBS released revised annual GDP data for period
from 1995 to 2007. The data from 2007 are
provisional. More information can be found on
www.dzs.hr Source CBS
8
Gross value added structure,in current prices,
2010
Source CBS
9
Contributions of domestic and net foreign demand
to GDP growth
First three quarters of 2011 Due to the
methodology of GDP calculation, its real annual
rate of change in first three quarters is not
equal to the sum of components'
contributions.The data from 2007 are
provisional. Source CBS
10
Unemployment rate
Croatia
ILO unemployment rate, peer countries, 2010
Since the beginning of 2007 results from the
Labour Force Survey have been published in
quarterly dynamics. ILO unemployment rate refers
to persons aged 15 years and over. CBS figure
January December 2011 (preliminary data) ILO
unemployment rate first three quarters of
2011Source CBS
Note ILO unemployment rate refers to persons
aged 15-74. Source Eurostat
11
Nominal and real net wages
January November 2011 Sources CBS, CNB
12
Total monthly labour costs in the economy, 2010
Total labour cost is shown as average monthly
gross wage.Sources CBS, national statistical
offices
13
Gross value added in industry per person employed
First three quarters of 2011Source CBS
14
Inflation
Croatia
Year-on-year inflation rates and components
contribution to consumer price inflation in
Croatia
CPI inflation (1996-1998 RPI inflation) and core
inflation, average year-on-year rate of change,
last data is year-on-year rate of change Source
CBS
Source CBS
15
Inflation in Croatia, eurozone and peer
countries
Average year-on-year rate of change. Inflation in
Croatia is measured by consumer price index, and
in the other selected countries by harmonized
index of consumer prices Sources CBS and Eurostat
16
Consolidated general government revenues and
expenditures
Croatia
Peer countries, 2010
All data are shown on cash basis, except data on
HAC and HC after 2004. Consolidated general
government revenues and expenditures are shown
according to GFS 2001 methodology. Expenditures
include acquisition of nonfinancial assets.
Source MoF
According to ESA 95 methodology.Sources
Eurostat, MoF
17
Consolidated general government balance
Croatia
Peer countries, 2010
Overall fiscal balance (GFS 2001) in the 2002 -
2003 period is shown on a cash basis and from
2004 on modified accrual basis. HAC, HC, HFP and
DAB are included from 2001, HAC is excluded in
2008. Pensioner debt repayments are included in
calculation of the balance (for more information
on the methodology of balance calculation see Box
4 in Bulletin 165).Sources Eurostat, MoF, CNB
According to ESA 95. Sources Eurostat, MoF
18
General government debt
Croatia
Peer countries, 2010
Government guaranteed debt includes other
sectors' domestic and external debt guaranteed by
central government (including HBOR). From 2008
general government debt does not include debt of
HAC.Source CNB
Sources Eurostat, CNB
19
Agenda

• Central banks objectives and structure
• Real sector
• Monetary policy
• Central banks policy
• Monetary developments
• Interest rates
• External sector
• Banking sector

20
Foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate
Note EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is
calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate
and conversion factor (1.95583).Source CNB
21
Exchange rate movements before CNB intervention
and amount of intervention, 1996 2012
Exchange rate of the intervention day relative to
exchange rate 4 days prior to intervention
(y-axis) and the intervention amount
(x-axis).Note EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999
is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate
and conversion factor (1.95583). Source CNB
22
Creation and withdrawal of reserve money
Note Foreign exchange transactions include
purchases and sales of foreign currency by the
CNB with commercial banks, MoF and swap
agreements. Positive values ??reflect the
purchase of foreign currency. Values ??for the
reverse repo transactions and lombard loans are
shown as change in one quarter.Source CNB
23
Reserve requirements and minimum f/c liquidity
Shaded area represent periods when banks' credit
growth was regulated with compulsory CNB
bills. Source CNB
24
Liquidity surplus and overnight interest rate
Source CNB
25
Base money M0
Source CNB
26
CNB's international reserves and money supply
Source CNB
27
Banks assets
Source CNB
28
Bank placements to the non-banking sector
Bank placements to the non-banking sector
Credit to GDP ratio
Sources National central banks
Source CNB
29
Banks' loans
year-on-year rate of change Source CNB
30
Loans to households - structure
Source CNB
31
Currency structure of banks' credits to the
private sector
Note Loans in foreign currency include loans
denominated in that currency and loans indexed to
that currency.Source CNB
32
Broad money (M4)
including kuna deposits with a currency
clause Source CNB
33
Euroisation of the banking system
Source CNB
34
Average lending interest rates
Source CNB
35
Average deposit interest rates
Source CNB
36
Interest rate spread
without a currency clause with a currency
clause Source CNB
37
Yield on T-bills and kuna government bond
T-bills average price in a month BND price
on the last trading day in a month.Note Since
the five-year kuna government bond matured in May
28, 2008, the seven-year kuna government bond,
which matures in July 11, 2013, has been chosen
for the purpose of further display of government
bonds' yields movements.Sources MoF ZSE
38
Bonds listed on the ZSE
Stock as at 31 January 2012 Source ZSE
39
Agenda

• Central banks objectives and structure
• Real sector
• Monetary policy
• External sector
• Exchange rate
• Foreign trade
• Current account
• External debt
• FDI
• Banking sector

40
Exchange rate policy

• Managed floating
• Exchange rate is market determined and based on
  supply and demand
• Central bank intervenes on the forex market
  through the forex auctions, but it DOES NOT
  defend any predetermined rate or band

41
Foreign exchange market

• Kuna is fully convertible
• No restrictions on repatriation of profits and
  liquidation of investment
• Banks freely determine the exchange rate, engage
  in the foreign exchange operations and conduct
  international payment transactions

42
Current account deficit and FDI inflows in Croatia
Note FDI inflows to Croatia and current account
balance exclude Pliva's transfer of patent rights
to the affiliated company abroad in 2003. Source
CNB
43
Structure of the current account balance
Source CNB
44
Current account balance by countries, 2010
Sources Eurostat, CNB
45
Daily nominal exchange rates HRK vs. EUR, USD
and CHF
Source CNB
46
Index of nominal and real effective kuna
exchange rate
The fall of index denotes appreciation of the
kuna. Source CNB
47
Index of real effective exchange rate deflated
by CPI
The fall of index denotes real effective
appreciation.Sources BIS CNB
48
Merchandise trade
Seasonally adjusted data. Source CBS
49
External debt by debtors
Source CNB
50
External debt by creditors
Source CNB
51
Estimated future principal and interest payments
by debtors
Repayments made until end-November 2011 and
projected repayments for December. Source CNB
52
International reserves in EUR and in months of
imports of goods and services
Source CNB
53
External debt ratios
Source CNB
54
External debt ratios by countries, 2010
Outstanding external debt/Exports of GS
Outstanding external debt/GDP
Sources Eurostat, CNB and central banks websites
55
FDI inflows to Croatia
Croatia
Peer countries, 2010
Preliminary data Source CNB
Source WIIW
56
FDI per capita in selected transition economies,
1993 2010
Source WIIW
57
Foreign direct investment in Croatia
Preliminary dataSource CNB
58
FDI in Croatia
1993 Q3/2011 (25,617.5 million EUR)
Preliminary dataSource CNB
59
FDI in Croatia
Q1 Q3/2011 (1,048.5 million EUR)
Preliminary dataSource CNB
60
Foreign direct investments in Croatia
1993 Q3/2011 (25,617.5 million EUR)
Preliminary dataSource CNB
61
Foreign direct investments in Croatia
Q1 Q3/2011 (1,048.5 million EUR)
Preliminary dataSource CNB
62
Agenda

• Central banks objectives and structure
• Real sector
• Monetary policy
• External sector
• Banking sector
• Size, structure and concentration
• Leverage ratio and capital adequacy
• Profitability
• Coverages
• Structure of loans and deposits by institutional
  sectors

63
Total assets of the banking system
Source CNB
64
Number of banks
Source CNB
65
Banking system by ownership
Source CNB
66
Concentration index
share of assets of the 2(4) largest banks in
total assets
Source CNB
67
Herfindahl Hirschman index (HHI)
Source CNB
68
Leverage ratio
equity capital/total assets
Source CNB
69
Capital adequacy ratio
regulatory capital/total exposure to risks
Source CNB
70
ROAA and ROAE
Source CNB
71
Classification of placements and off-balance
sheet liabilities of banks
Source CNB
72
Coverages
Coverage 1 Total value adjustments and
provisions/Total placements and off-balance sheet
liabilities Coverage 2 Value adjustments and
provisions / B -1, B-2, B-3 and C placements and
off-balance sheet liabilitiesSource CNB
73
Structure of extended loans (gross) by
institutional sectors
30 September 2011
Includes non-profit institutions serving
households.Source CNB
74
Structure of received deposits by institutional
sectors
30 September 2011
Source CNB