Understanding Complex Engineered Systems

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Understanding ComplexEngineered Systems

• A Presentation for the Royal United Services
  Institute
• Given by Professor David Stupples
• 10th September 2008

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Todays talk

• Definition of complexity
• Dimensions of complexity
• Examples of complex systems
• What were the outcomes
• Why these outcomes
• Designing complex systems
• Whole systems design

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• A complex system is a system formed out of many
  components whose behaviour is emergent, that is,
  the behaviour of the system cannot be simply
  inferred from the behaviour of its components.
  The amount of information necessary to describe
  the behaviour of such a system is a measure of
  its complexity. (Yaneer Bar-Yam)
• A hierarchical system is a system that is
  composed of interrelated sub-systems being, in
  turn hierarchic in structure until we reach some
  lowest level of elementary sub-system. It is the
  hierarchical interrelationships that gives rise
  to the complex emergent behaviour.
• (Herbert A Simon)

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Dimensions of complexity

• Systems complexity can be broadly categorised
• Engineering complexity
• Technology complexity
• Project complexity
• Operational complexity

It is acknowledged that most complex engineering
projects are multi-dimensional in nature, and
therefore require a systematic approach to cope
with the complexity involved.
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Three Gorges Dam - China
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Complexity involved

• Engineering complexity diverting the Yangtze
  river during build, management of flooding in the
  lower Yangtze, long distance power distribution
  and line loss, building of locks causing minimum
  economic disruption.
• Project complexity - largest hydro-electric
  generator (22 GWe by 2011), cost 25bn, project
  duration (20 years from design), management of
  over 10,000 contracts and over 1000 contractors,
  relocating 140,000 people, etc.
• Operational complexity - loss of river flushing
  effect (pollution), lack of silt deposit (coastal
  erosion) and sinking coastal areas. loss of
  13,000 farms, loss of forestation, change to
  rural environment

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Boeing 777 World Airliner
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Complexity involved

• Engineering complexity included fitting of the
  largest gas turbines to date, using Catia 3D
  design for the first time, use of a full glass
  cockpit for the first time, use of fully
  configurable avionics using fibre optics, first
  Boeing large commercial jet with fly-by-wire.
• Technology complexity included use of
  significant carbon fibre panels, revolutionary
  wing design and proof of fly-by-wire software.
• Project complexity design and build with more
  than 20 countries involved, more than 40 major
  contractors participating, tightly controlled
  budgets for cost and weight, multi
  company/country use of Catia, Boeing internal
  politics.
• Operational complexity all airline customers
  involved in the design.

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London Heathrow Terminal 5
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Complexity involved

• Engineering complexity building and
  commissioning a major terminal within a working
  airport adjacent to one of Europes busiest
  highways, relocating one of Londons major sewage
  processing plants and diverting waterways.
• Technology complexity developing and
  implementing one of the worlds most
  sophisticated baggage handing systems and
  passenger information systems.
• Project complexity developing and managing a
  sophisticated and efficient contracting strategy
  together with effective contractor management to
  contain cost and risk, and to maintain an
  exacting time schedule.
• Operational complexity transition from a
  project to operations with minimum disruption.

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GCHQ New Accommodation Programme
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Complexity involved

• Engineering complexity designing and
  implementing probably the worlds second largest
  and most complex computing system and transiting
  from the existing system whilst fully
  operational.
• Technology complexity designing and
  implementing new cutting-edge infrastructure to
  support the future needs of signals intelligence.
• Project complexity managing a PFI contract for
  the new building and numerous technical contracts
  to deliver the new facility on time and to
  budget.
• Operational complexity the transition from
  existing operations on one site to new operations
  on the new site without losing a single moment of
  operational capability, especially during 9/11,
  7/7 (and subsequent terrorist activity),
  Afghanistan and Iraq military operations.

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Project outcomes

• Three Gorges Dam expected to be delivered on
  time and to budget delivering 22 GWe but
  environmentally very damaging with substantial
  negative impact on rural economics caused by
  operational complexity.
• Boeing 777 technically and operationally
  successful, but will not deliver the level of
  profit planned owing to the project complexity.
• LHR Terminal 5 very successful engineering
  project but suffered substantial transition
  problems from project status to operations.
• GCHQ fully successful in all respects.

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Why is this?

• Government influence or pressure to ignore
  the wider system issues (China) successful
  project and facility but not environmentally
  acceptable
• Shareholder value or profits were paramount
  (BAA) successful project but poor transition
  to operations (BA).
• Marketing values override other, perhaps more
  important, project issues (Boeing) successful
  aeroplane but not project.
• Severe operational pressures coupled with
  tight schedules realised from the outset and
  full systems view taken (GCHQ).

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Designing complex systems

• The System of Interest (project) exists within a
  Wider System of Interest (WSOI) ie the
  containing environment
• The WSOI acts to constrain the System of Interest
  (SOI)
• The SOI makes assumptions regarding the behaviour
  of the WSOI

Wider System of Interest

Constraints
System Of Interest
Assumptions
importantly we can only contract to provide
the system of interest! But we must understand
the WSOI if we are to be successful.
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Whole systems design handles complexity
The amount of information necessary to describe
the behaviour of such a system is a measure of
its complexity. Requires a full system
understanding to achieve this! It is the
hierarchical interrelationships that gives rise
to the complex emergent behaviour. Requires a
full understanding of the interfaces involved to
achieve this!