Security Planning and Transformation

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Security Planning and Transformation

• Institutionalizing Transformation
• Achieving Balance
• The Future Force

Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force
Transformation 22 Apr 04
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Strategic Transformation Appraisal
The TPG Process in
Action
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Broad Findings
Elements of Transformation

• Continuing process
• Creating / anticipating the future
• Co-evolution of concepts, processes,
  organizations and technology
• New competitive areas / competencies revalued
  attributes
• Fundamental shifts in underlying principles
• New sources of power
• Changing behavior values, attitudes, beliefs

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4-7
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Broad Findings Transforming the
Role of Defense

• National Security is more than defense
• More than responsive and punitive
  preventative
• More than stopping something keeping
  the world system up and running
• More than the big one the whole
  spectrum of military competition
• Homeland security defense in depth
• Increasing globalization and national security
  transaction rates compel increased
  internationalization and civilianization of
  defense

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Broad Findings Transforming the Force
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Broad FindingsTransforming the Way of War

• Whats Valued
• Networking
• Sensing
• Envelope management
• Speed maneuverability
• Numbers
• Risk tolerance
• Staying power

• New this year
• Increasing the speed of command of a networked,
  distributed force contributes to more rapid force
  projection and engagement
• High transaction rates
• Increased information rate and volume
• Increased complexity and scale of operations
• Tolerance for ambiguity and unpredictable demand

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Total Force Balance Security All Else
Defense
Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social
IntelligenceAll Sources of Power
The Close FightDecisive Operations LandLittoral
sLow Altitude
The CommonsThe Strategic Imperative High Seas
Air AboveSpaceCyberspace
Winning the Battle / Combat Military
IntelligenceCombat Power
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Total Force Balance Security All
Else Defense
Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social
IntelligenceAll areas of power
The CommonsThe Strategic Imperative High Seas
Air AboveSpaceCyberspace
The Close FightDecisive Operations LittoralsLow
AltitudeLand
Winning the Battle / Combat Military
IntelligenceCombat Power
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Total Force Balance
Security All Else Defense
Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social
IntelligencePolitical Power
Maximum Complexity
The CommonsThe Strategic Imperative High Seas
Air AboveSpaceCyberspace
The Close FightDecisive Operations LittoralsLow
AltitudeLand
Global Stability
Local Stability
Winning the Battle / Combat Military
IntelligenceCombat Power
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Trends in Security Competition
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Security System Balance?
Major
Movements
Strategic Posture/Balance Forces forward Deploy
from home Allies Operational
Maneuver From forward garrison
From the sea From strategic distances Deter
Forward 2d derivative force Sustaining
force Constabulary/Nation-building force
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Strategic Posture Exporting
security
The Red Zone
Our Response
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Top Level Issues Culture Values, Beliefs,
Attitudes
Policy Outcome f Power, Moral Principle
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Global Trends and Implications of Exporting
Security Risk Management Special Case

• Policy Choices
• Engagement Policy
• Substitution of Capital for Labor
• Civil Component of National Security
• Allied / International Component

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Transactions vs. Resources
T R A N S A C T I O N S
R E S O U R C E S
Anticipating Perfectly Predictable Surprises
t1
t2
t3
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The Collection Analysis Gap
Managing the inevitable
Policy Choices

• Automate Triage
• Automate Analysis
• We all become analysts

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The Advance to Baghdad

• Rate of Advance outruns logistics communications
  and transportation
• 2. Logisticians shift to push system use
  models, SitReps, to sense supply needs
• 3. Tactical Units shift to cross-supply to fill
  gaps

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Transforming Defense
Corporate Strategy

• Part I Continuous small steps
• Part II Many exploratory jumps
• Part III A few big bets
• Big Bets We Are Making
• Joint network-centric warfare
• Directed energy
• Seabasing gt Joint OMFTS
• Demand-centered intelligence

If you are not making big bets you are a fixed
strategic target at risk.

• Big Bets We Have Not Made Yet
• Joint seamless machine-to-machine integration
• Joint re-directed energy
• Demand-centered logistics
• Tactically responsive space

FBB
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Identify Issues of Regret
Candidates for Action Now

• Warfare Elements
• Fire non-lethals, directed energy, redirected
  energy
• Maneuver seabasing, vertical battlefield, lift
  for operational maneuver
• Protection urban operations, biomedical
  countermeasures cycle time
• C2C joint interdependency vs. interoperability
• ISR demand-centered intelligence, tactically
  responsive space
• Logistics joint demand-centered logistics
• Risk Management (creating on-ramps)
• Joint ST broaden the capabilities base, create
  generational depth
• Joint concept development experimentation
  short cycle time / rapid iteration, concept-based
  / technology-enabled
• Joint training live / virtual / constructive /
  distributed
• People culture and organizations

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Approaches to Logistics

• More is better
• Mountains of stuff measured in days of supply
• Uses massive inventory to hedge against
  uncertainty in demand and supply
• Mass begets mass and slows everything down

Prime Metric Days of Supply
Prime Metric Flow Time
Prime Metric Speed/Quality of Effects
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Whats the Behavior Telling Us?
Army Stuff
Joint Force Capabilities Packages
Navy Stuff
USAF Stuff
Context Coordination
USMC Stuff
TraditionalC2
Common Stuff
Distributed Operations
Other Stuff
Transition from linear supply chain to adaptive
demand network
Sources of Stuff (Theater, CONUS, etc)
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Operationally Responsive Space Experiment
2 stories high 9 ft in Diameter
20 high 41 in Diameter
TACSAT 1 2003

• Design, build, and launch
• operationally relevant satellite
• in less than 1 year
• Less than 15M including
• launch

TACSAT 1 1969
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Global UtilitiesOperational Needs
National
Cost Mission Criticality Risk Capability Complexit
y Requirements Centralized Control Classification
Competing Users Launch Challenges
Tactical
Operational
National
Strategic
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Relay Mirror System The
Killer App for HELs

• Attributes of an HEL-Relay Mirror System
• Extended range of engagement for air, land and
  sea-based systems
• Improved engagement timeline
• Increased field of regard
• Improved battlefield standoff for manned systems
• Low cost force multiplier
• High Altitude Airship-based Relay Mirror Systems
  offer early operational capability for high value
  missions

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Re-Directed Energy

• Objective
• Re-direct laser energy beyond line-of-sight
  (BLOS) via airborne relay mirror system
• Build an experimental system compatible with the
  High Altitude Airship (HAA) ACTD that creates a
  technical means to provide indirect laser
  propagation geometries
• Unarticulated Need
• Over horizon active defense, communication and
  sensing
• Re-Direct laser energy to over-the-horizon
  objectives i.e. cruise missiles, ballistic
  missiles, aircraft, artillery, and ground targets
• Re-Direct laser energy to operational nodes
  within the optical communications footprint
• Direct line image relay without optical to
  electronic conversion
• Approach
• The FY05 rapid field experiments will determine
  the operational viability and
  prepare a functional surrogate to accurately
  redirect laser energy through the ARMS
  payload suspended from a crane.
• In FY06 the system will be upgraded to include
  light weight components and higher power levels
  for operational effects and conduct
  concept-driven operational experimentation
  onboard a persistent low altitude airborne
  platform
• High-risk components and subsystems experiments
  will be performed
• A functional surrogate will be configured for the
  prospective HAA ACTD

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Operational Maneuver From the SeaAdvanced
Intermodal Mobility (AIM)
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Shallow Draft / High-Speed Sealift
6000-8700 nm, 60-100 knots, 5000 ton payload

• Tactically Survivable Agile maneuverabilityspe
  ed / angles
• - Carbon fiber/ Kevlar strength, inherent
  multi-dimensional stealth, networked defense
• Operationally Feasible Modular missionsrapid
  reconfiguration
• - Electronic keel and support service standards
  protocols, Mission-oriented mobility systems,
  reconfigurable payloads
• Strategically Viable Adaptable mobilityspeed
  of response
• - High Payload-fractions, sustained tempo /
  reduce foot print ashore

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Key Barriers to Transformation
challenges for the Department

• Cultural barriers
• Speed of understanding vs speed of doctrine
• Cognitive interoperability and exploitation of
  shared awareness
• Values, attitudes and beliefs
• Physical barriers
• Speed of mass (lift and mobility)
• Speed of information (connectivity
  interoperability)
• Fiscal barriers
• Willingness and ability to devalue and devolve
• Discretionary versus non-discretionary
• Process barriers
• Transformation of the management of defense (not
  addressed)

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Key Barriers to Transformation
Example of a Cultural Change

• Large indivisible units
• Transformation for the future (a destination)
• Independence
• Transformation for a few

• Smaller, modular, multi-functional units
• Transformation as a change today (a journey)
• Interdependence
• Transformation for everyone

Cultural change is a matter of leadership
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Indicators of Cultural Change
Within the next 10 years

• some adversaries will likely have the ability
  to use long-range precision strike weapons such
  as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use
  of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports,
  airfields and logistical sites.

Officer Attitudes Toward Innovation, Thomas
G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons Naval War
College, 2002
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Indicators of Cultural Change
Within the next 10 years

• some adversaries will likely have the ability
  to use long-range precision strike weapons such
  as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use
  of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports,
  airfields and logistical sites.

The Limits of Transformation Officer Attitudes
toward the RMA, Thomas G. Mahnken and James
Fitzsimmons, NWC, 2003
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Security Environment
Four Challenges
No hard boundaries distinguishing one category
from another
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Transforming the Transformation

Perfectly Predictable Surprises

• Balance prime metrics for force building between
  Traditional, Irregular, Catastrophic and
  Disruptive
• Civilianization of defense
• Create a strategic approach
• Internationalization of defense
• Align grand strategy with global dynamics
• Buy to cost vice buy to budget
• Cost is a strategy (both cost of war and
  program cost)
• Create cost-suppressing strategies
• Transformation in non-discretionary areas
• Create strategic hedges against cataclysm

• Rationalize information activities management
• Establish CIO as single acquisition
  authority and strategist
• Create global consortium for the grid
• Achieve demand-centered joint intelligence
• Popularize social intelligence
• Establish info-mediaries
• Mechanize horizontal integration
• Extend joint logistics to the tactical level of
  war
• Organize around the battlefield, not around
  the supplier

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Conclusions achievements and challenges for the
Department

• If executed, Roadmaps yield a highly capable,
  reasonably balanced force evolving over time
• Within a predictable range they provide broader
  options for the President
• Areas of current advantage will be sustained
• Some will be subject to sharply increased
  competition, e.g. cyberspace, space
• Roadmaps did not address economies of defense
• Without transformation, costs of acquisition and
  ownership are not sustainable
• Choices were made, but divestiture and devolution
  strategies were not addressed
• Costs of future combat were not addressed
• Roadmaps do not address hedging strategies
  against plausible cataclysms
• Roadmaps indicate the need for transformation of
  the management of common functions --
  paradoxically where we have great advantage
• Joint information systems and activities
• Joint intelligence
• Joint logistics
• Joint ST

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Elements of Transformation
Continuing process
Creating/anticipating the future
Co-evolution of concepts, processes,
organizations, and technology
New competitive areas/competenciesrevalued
attributes
Fundamental shifts in underlying principles
New sources of power
Changing behavior values, attitudes, beliefs
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Transformation

• Down at the grange theyre teachin a new way of
  plowin Ya goin?

• Nope!
• I already dont plow as good as I know how ...

www.oft.osd.mil
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Q A