Theme 4: Human Interactions with the Environment

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Theme 4 Human Interactions with the Environment

• David Letson
• Marine Affairs/Economics
• University of Miami/RSMAS

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Roadmap

• I. Statement of Theme 4. Humans shape are
  shaped by natural systems.
• II. Important contributions to several NOAA
  related interdisciplinary projects.
• Use of climate information.
• Conceptual models of NERR sites.
• Marine reserve design.
• III. Vision for the future.

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Part I Humans as Part of System

• Inter-dependence of humans and ecosystems
• Role of human systems in environmental decisions.
  
• Two foci
• Human dimensions of climatic change and
  variability
• Sustainable use of the worlds fisheries.
• No outside influence. Essential systemic
  component.

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Our Approach Integrated Assessment

• Synthesis and critical appraisal of scientific
  information on a topic.
• Advancing state of knowledge ensuring its
  relevance.
• Multiple disciplines institutions. Local
  knowledge.
• Not just the analytical products but also the
  dialogue that produced them.

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Part II A Few Projects

• (A) Use of climate information
• (B) Conceptual models of NERR sites
• (C) Marine reserve design.

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(A) Use of Climate Information
Precipitation

• ENSO affects Regional Climate
• Lower (higher) temps in El Niño (Niña).
• Higher (lower) precip in El Niño (Niña).
• ENSO affects Tomatoes
• Winter yields decrease during El Niño.
• NOAA/OGP USDA/RMA funds.
• UM, FSU, UGA, UF, Auburn UA-Huntsville.

Temperature
Tomato yields
Relative Yields
Source James Hansen et al. Journal of Climate
1999
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• Bridging gap between climate forecasters and
  users
• learn user needs for and perceptions of climate
  forecasts
• evaluate usefulness and limitations of climate
  forecasts
• translate forecasts into decision support for
  agriculture water
• demonstrate successful forecast applications

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(B) Conceptual Models Estuaries as Integrated
Systems

• Natural systems rates of soil and water
  movement.
• Socioeconomic factors size and distribution of
  costs and benefits.
• Interplay of natural and human systems creates
  problems, opportunities.
• NOAAS Educational Partnership Program for
  Minority Serving Institutions UM, FAMU, Morgan
  State, Jackson State, Delaware State, South
  Carolina State

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Integrated Watershed Analysis Management

• Five NERR sites in SC, FL, MD, MS DE
• Social scientists assess societal goals and
  policy options through a process of inclusion and
  consultation.
• Can only be as good as cooperating social and
  natural science efforts.
• We depend on natural scientists to assess changes
  in the natural world that may affect human well
  being.

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(C) Marine Reserves

• (1) Broad/Olson NSF biocomplexity project in the
  Bahamas.
• (2) Die/Letson/Shivlani MARFIN recreational
  diving survey to evaluate benefits of reserves.

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(1) Marine Reserve Design

• Optimal placement of Bahamian MPA network.
• National Science Foundation/Biocomplexity
  project.
• Integrating socioeconomics, biology physics.
• Connectivity attitudes, uses, resource
  conditions.
• UM (K. Broad D. Olson), American Museum of
  Natural History, Stanford, Resources for the
  Future.

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(2) Recreational Diving and Marine Reserves

• Diver preference survey
• Questionnaire developed in conjunction with
  students Kristin Kleisner and Katie Drew
• Administered by cooperating dive shops
• Die/Letson/Shivlani with MARFIN support
• Goals
• Willingness-to-pay for marine reserves in FKNMS
• Rank attributes that enhance diver satisfaction
• Evaluate diver preference for marine reserves

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Part III Vision of the Future

• Climate services.
• Sustainable fisheries.
• We can help each other a great deal.

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Climate Services

• A process including
• Several components
• Not only climate forecasts
• Continuous evaluation and incorporation of
  feedback

Adapted from Sarewitz, Pielke and Byerly 2000.
Prediction. Island Press. Page 376.
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Sustainable Fisheries

• Biologically healthy fish stocks.
• Economically healthy fishing businesses.
• Maintaining social productivity
• Fishing cultures and communities
• Diversity in scales of fishing operations
• Opportunities for recreational subsistence
  fishing.
• How should we measure success?

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In Conclusion

• Goals determined by societal preferences, by
  design or default.
• Humans are not an outside influence but an
  essential systemic component.
• Toward a shared vision of sustainable use.

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Climate Information Water Resources Planning

• Analysis of the decision-making process
• constraints to forecast use
• user needs
• organizational decision rules and process
• Decision support tools
• existing procedures, models and management tools
• refinements to incorporate climate information

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Probability of Hurricane Strikes
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Other Potential Uses of Climate Forecasts