Keeling

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Keeling
PX272 Lecture 6 Political Response
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Scientific Prompts

• 1985 A scientific conference organized by the
  Scientific Committee on Problems of the
  Environment (SCOPE)
• -gtSCOPE 29 1986 The Greenhouse Effect, Climate
  Change and Ecosystems ed B Bolin et al
  (Chichester Wiley) 400 citations?
• 1988 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• -gt Comprehensive assessments
• Year Authors Reviewers
• 1990 170 200
• 1997 n/a n/a
• 2001 639 441
• 2007 gt600 620govt
• Engagement both international (UN) and
  inter-governmental

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1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change
(FCCC)

• signed by over 160 countries , UN conf Rio 1992,
  effective 1994.
• recognises the reality of global warming and
  uncertainties of climate predictions
• mitigating action needs to be taken despite the
  uncertainties
• developed countries should take the lead in this
  action.
• . . . stabilization of greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at
• a level that would prevent dangerous
  anthropogenic interference with the climate
  system
• within a time-frame sufficient to allow
  ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,
• to ensure that food production is not threatened
  and to enable economic development to proceed in
  a sustainable manner.

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Kyoto Protocol 1997

• first formal binding legislation under the FCCC
• commits industrialized (Annex I) countries to
  specific reductions in Emissions BUT NOT THE
  OTHERS.
• First commitment period average emissions
  20082012 below 1990 levels by 5- 8for a basket
  of greenhouse gases.
• Joint Implementation (cheapest savings)
• Clean Development Mechanism (avert new
  emissions)
• Emissions Trading
• US decided to withdraw 2002
• Ratification threshold achieved Feb 2005 by
  Russia ratifying, but NOT the USA or Australia
  (new Australian govt ratified 2007).
• Negotiations on Second commitment period had to
  start no later than 2005.
• December 2005 Montreal first Meeting of the
  Parties formally decides to launch Second
  Commitment Period negotiations. (US walkout
  failed).
• Dec 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference
  in Copenhagen treaty succeeding Kyoto due to be
  adopted.

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Easier for some ?
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International targets
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UK CO2 emissions
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UK emissions by end user
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EU emissions targets
The EU's goal is to limit the increase in global
average temperature to 2C above the
pre-industrial level
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EU Emissions Trading Scheme
Commenced on 1 January 2005, first phase to 2007,
second phase 2008-2012 to coincide with the
first Kyoto Commitment Period. Further five-year
periods are expected subsequently.
"Cap and Trade" basis. EU governments required to
set an emission cap for all installations covered
by the Scheme, under National Allocation Plan.
Member states must allocate allowances to
installations by 28 February each year. Member
States must ensure that by 30 April each year at
the latest, the operator of each installation
surrenders a number of allowances equal to its
emissions the preceding calendar
year. Installations therefore have to surrender
allowances for the first time by 30 April 2006
equal to their emissions during 2005.
else excess emission fine 40 / tonne CO2.
Installations will be required to have their
annual emissions verified.
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From UK national allocation plan
- effectively this forces power generators to buy
heavily in the UK/EU carbon market
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Drax Power Station Example

• Drax power station holds 215m worth of annual
  allowances to emit carbon dioxide (CO2), and
  expected to buy another 40 on the open market in
  fiorst year of scheme.
• July 05 Price of an allowance for a tonne of
  CO2 emitted had shot up from 6 (4) to 20, with
  a peak in early June of 29.
• (Above 40, cheaper to be fined.)

EUA market price, Euro/tonne
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UoW allocation !
all tonnes of CO2 per annum
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Demise of ETS phase 1
Crashing carbon prices puts EU climate policy to
the test  Published Tuesday 2 May 2006 Reports
that six EU countries had emitted far less CO2
than anticipated sent carbon prices plummeting
last week.
ETS Phase 2 some allowances auctioned. Dec
2008 13.60/tonne.
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New EU targets 23 Jan 2008
Require to be endorsed by MEPs and member states
ETS sector 2005-2020 21 cut driven by
reduction in CO2 permits Non-ETS sectors
transport, buildings and agriculture national
targets
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US state emissions targets
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America is addicted to oil, which is often
imported from unstable parts of the world. The
best way to break this addiction is through
technology. .....
22-percent increase in clean-energy research, to
push for (1) zero-emission coal-fired plants,
revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and
clean, safe nuclear energy. (2) better
batteries for hybrid and electric cars, and in
pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen...
cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not
just from corn, but from wood chips and stalks,
or switch grass ...practical and competitive
within six years.
Goal to replace more than 75 percent of our oil
imports from the Middle East by 2025. (Applause.)
... move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and
make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing
of the past. GW Bush, State of Union
Address, Jan 31 2006
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Abstract from COP15 Press Release (Copenhagen
Accord, 19 Dec 09)

• Agreement by countries to cap the global
  temperature rise by committing to significant
  emission reductions, and to raise finance to
  kickstart action in the developing world to deal
  with climate change.
• Supported by a majority of countries, including
  biggest and richest, and smallest and most
  vulnerable.
• Recognizes scientific view that an increase in
  global temperature below 2 degrees is required to
  stave off worst effects of climate change.
• Specifies that industrialised countries will
  commit to implement, individually or jointly,
  quantified economy-wide emissions targets from
  2020, to be listed in the accord before 31
  January 2010.
• Number of developing countries, including major
  emerging economies, agreed to communicate their
  efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions every
  two years, listing their voluntary pledges before
  31 January 2010.
• UNFCCC Exec Sec Yvo de Boer. The world walks
  away from Copenhagen with a deal. But clearly
  ambitions to reduce emissions must be raised
  significantly if we are to hold the world to 2
  degrees
• Because pledges listed may, according to science,
  be found insufficient to keep the global
  temperature rise below 2 degrees, review of the
  accord by 2015, including consideration of the
  long-term goal to limit the global average
  temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.
• Copenhagen Green Climate Fund. to support
  immediate action on climate change. The
  collective commitment by developed countries over
  the next three years will approach 30 billion US
  dollars.
• Long-term finance, developed countries agreed to
  support a goal of jointly mobilizing 100 billion
  dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of
  developing countries.
• Establish a new technology mechanism to
  accelerate technology development and transfer in
  support of action on adaptation and mitigation.
• Yvo de Boer we need to be clear that it is a
  letter of intent and is not precise about what
  needs to be done in legal terms. So the challenge
  is now to turn what we have agreed politically in
  Copenhagen into something real, measurable and
  verifiable.
• Next negotiating session in Bonn, Germany, June
  10 -gt annual UN Climate Change Conference end
  2010 in Mexico City.

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Annex 1 listings under Copenhagen Accord
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Non-Annex 1 countries ..
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(No Transcript)
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Brazil
Principal commitments
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Abstract from COP15 Press Release (Copenhagen
Accord, 19 Dec 09)

• UNFCCC Exec Sec Yvo de Boer. The world walks
  away from Copenhagen with a deal. But clearly
  ambitions to reduce emissions must be raised
  significantly if we are to hold the world to 2
  degrees.
• Yvo de Boer we need to be clear that it is a
  letter of intent and is not precise about what
  needs to be done in legal terms. So the challenge
  is now to turn what we have agreed politically in
  Copenhagen into something real, measurable and
  verifiable.
• Next negotiating session in Bonn, Germany, June
  10 -gt annual UN Climate Change Conference end
  2010 in Mexico City.