The New Geopolitics of Oil

1
The New Geopolitics of Oil

• Michael Renner

Achieving Global Energy Security Portland,
Maine April 13, 2007
2
Examples of Oil-Related Conflicts
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World Oil Consumption, 1965-2005
Million Barrels/Day
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Major Oil Consumers, 1965-2030
Million Barrels/Day
5
Net Oil Imports, 1994 and 2004
Million Barrels/Day
11.8
9.9
9.1
8.1
5.5
5.3
3.0
1.6
0.1
0.7
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World Oil Discoveries
Billion Barrels/Year

• The rate of discovery is dropping fast

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Boundary Disputes

• East China Sea China, Japan, S. Korea Russia
  are claiming areas that may be rich in oil gas
• South China Sea
• China, Taiwan, Vietnam claim the Paracel Islands.
• Along with the Philippines, Brunei Indonesia,
  they are also in dispute over the Spratly
  Islands.
• Sulawesi Sea Tensions btw Indonesia Malaysia
  flared over an oil-rich area in early 2005.
• Bakassi Peninsula claimed by Nigeria
  Cameroon.
• Intl Court of Justice ruled in Oct. 2002 that
  Cameroon has sovereignty only in 2006 did
  Nigeria comply (withdrew its troops).

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Pipeline Envy

• Caspian oil US, Russia China pushed competing
  pipeline plans. US-backed Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan
  pipeline opened in May 2005bypasses Russia and
  Iran.
• Siberian oil China Japan backing different
  export routes. Japan appeared as winner, but
  territorial frictions may lead Russia to build a
  pipeline to China first.
• Russian gas April 2006 Putin suggested Russia
  might redirect future supplies from Europe to
  Asian customers.
• Iranian gas Bush administration opposes Iran
  pipeline to Pakistan India.
• Venezuela Pursuing China (oil) and Brazil
  Argentina (gas) as alternative markets to US.