Problem Solving and Decision Making. The Rational Engineer.

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Problem Solving and Decision Making. The
Rational Engineer.

• 320 SYS Aerospace Applications II

• A handful of commonsense is worth a bushel of
  learning.
• Spanish Proverb
• If the facts dont fit the theory, change the
  facts.
• Albert Einstein

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Introduction

• A series of lectures and practical exercises in
  the use of rational processes. In particular, the
  Kepner-Tregoe method.
• Why this particular method ?

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Topics of Discussion

• The truth about organisations, engineering and
  the management there of.
• Introducing the four rational processes -
• Situation Appraisal
• Problem Analysis
• Decision Analysis
• Potential Problem Analysis

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The search for organisational effectiveness

• Organisation - systematic arrangement, tidiness,
  the state of being organized, an organized body.
• Arguably one of mans finest inventions. However
  frequently an organisation is anything but
  organised.
• Misunderstanding
• Miscommunication

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Groups and Teams

• Groups People interacting in a common cause.
  Sensitive to each other and able to adapt to each
  others peculiarities. By this means they are able
  to keep the group together and functioning.
• Teams Built on technical abilities with members
  working towards specific goals. Members must be
  able to tolerate each other but beyond this it is
  the coordinated efforts and avoidance of errors
  that makes a winning team. Camaraderie may grow
  out of mutual respect but it is not the primary
  mechanism for success.

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How this relates to you ?

• As aerospace engineers you will continually be
  asked to work in teams.
• You will constantly be give decisions to make and
  problems to solve.
• The situations you arrive into will invariably
  either exist prior to your involvement, appear
  unexpectedly or generally not have been planned
  for. There will be some chaos !
• You may rarely have the luxury of being asked to
  look into a crystal ball for future impending
  disasters

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Four Basic Patterns of Thinking.

• These four patterns have not changed
  significantly since the emergence of the human
  race.
• Whats going on ?
• Why did this happen ?
• Which course of action should I take ?
• What lies ahead ?

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Pattern 1 Whats going on ?

• The need for assessing and clarifying ?
• Sorting out and breaking down disorder,
  uncertainty and confusion.
• Establishing priorities and deciding when and how
  to take action. Delegating tasks.

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Pattern 2 Why did this happen ?

• Cause and effect ? The engineers thinking pattern
  !!
• Relating an event to its outcome. Assigning a
  meaning to an observation.
• Enables humans to move beyond mere reaction to
  environment and instead make use of the
  environment.

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Pattern 3 Which course of action should we take
?

• Making choices.
• Three major activities -
• Determination of purpose. To what end are we
  making this choice.
• Consideration of available options. How to best
  fulfil the purpose.
• Assessment of relative risks. Which is the safest
  and most productive option.

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Pattern 4 What lies ahead ?

• Anticipating the future.
• This form of thinking is made possible by
  superior development of cause and effect type
  thinking. Although this pattern has been around
  forever it is unfortunately one of the less
  successful.
• The future carries less urgency than the present.

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The four patterns and Kepner-Tregoe.

• 1. Situation Appraisal.
• Whats going on ?
• 2. Problem Analysis.
• Why did this happen ?
• 3. Decision Analysis.
• What should we do ?
• 4. Potential Problem Analysis.
• What lies ahead ?

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Cave men, teamwork and the four patterns.

• Earliest humans, hunter gatherers had teamwork
  down to a fine art ! Functioned more as a single
  body than comparable teams today.
• Few abstract terms. Small groups with clear
  language and objectives.
• Advent of agriculture doomed hunting life. Groups
  larger, specialization of function. Room for
  difference in beliefs and behaviour.

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Real Life

• Concorde crash .
• Kurtz nuclear submarine disaster.
• The Challenger disaster.
• Or more personally .
• My final year project !
• Job applications.

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• Summary
• Kepner-Tregoe method effectively packages common
  sense. Without its process though it is
  surprisingly easy to miss key and important
  issues in any problem solving or decision making
  situation.
• Good teams are not necessarily great social
  circles. There are 4 rational processes with
  which we will be concerned. Situation Appraisal,
  Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis and Potential
  Problem Analysis.

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Next Steps

• Summarize any actions required of your audience
• Summarize any follow up action items required of
  you