Title: Strategy formation:
1Strategy formation India's Liberal Political
Strategy 2004 and beyond For the Workshop
organised by India Policy Institute 5-8 January
2004 by Sanjeev Sabhlok
Version 0.8 29 December 2003
2contents
- About the workshop
- Strategic intent
- Strategic review
- Strategic analysis and options
- Strategy
3 About the workshop
1
4Review of the Indian state
- Where are we today?
- We have got our independence but minds and
actions are still not free - The billion gems of India are still unpolished
- Our democracy is a sham
- Where do we want to be in the future?
- Provide opportunities for everyone in India to
reach their full potential - Ensure that an environment is created where these
opportunities are fostered and protected
5Why are we bothered?
- Why is getting there important?
- It is an insult to Indias potential that people
are not secure today, do not have appropriate
education, and do not get the opportunities to do
what they can - Providing good policy to India will make India
liveable, secure, and a great place to be
6Making up ones mind
- Getting there is not my responsibility!
- We have a system where only the corruptible can
flourish - But the country is liberalising, isnt it?
- If only our politicians and our bureaucrats did
their job properly - If only our population had not grown so large
- If it could have been done, it would have been
done - It cant be done anyway it is so difficult, and
there are so many obstacles - The timing is not right
- We dont have a mascot
7Let us record the facts
The greatest impediment to action is the want
of that knowledge which is gained by discussions
preparatory to action. Pericles Need to think
through very carefully, and then act out the
imperative
8Role of IPIIPI is a pie in the sky so far of
no real use to India
- Characteristics of this framework
- Labour intensive in terms of debate
- Helpful in learning about the key players in the
liberal marketplace of India - Output is not conclusive in any way
- Unless there is action this is just a pile of
words
- Preliminary Policy framework to attract thinkers
with common core of ideas - Constitution
- Manifesto
- Etc.
Initial IPI effort March 1998- now
Second stage of IPI effort (concurrent) Deliver
strategy of action
9Future of policy debates on IPI
- Policy discussion and debate on the Internet has
its merits but it has reached a point of
diminishing returns - Everybody (including the committed Liberals) is
on a slightly different page due to different
experience, knowledge, and understanding - The best that can be hoped for is a consensus on
extremely basic issues, such as the assumptions
of a liberal - These discussions are in any case not meant to be
conclusive it is nobodys claim that the draft
constitution or manifesto prepared at IPI is
anything but a crude list or concept note, a
policy skeleton - Effort on studying policy implications beyond a
point is wasted energy none of this discussion
is reaching the ground and will not reach till
we do the hard work required to provide a
practical alternative - The policy skeleton provided by IPI would be
one of many inputs to the finalisation of policy
documents in the future. That responsibility
would vest with group authorised to do so - Policy discussion can continue on the side
10Moving on Delivering a liberal strategy
- It is time to workshop
- A workshop with like-minded people
- Workshop to consider all practical issues related
the formation of political party and running it
successfully - IPI sponsoring this workshop
- Dates 5th January 2004 to 8th January 2004
- Open seminar on 9th January 2004
11Strategy and tactics
12Where to go
- Boils down to an agreed
- Vision
- Mission
- Methods
- Values
13Who is invited to workshop?Handful of committed
liberals
- Pragmatic visionaries and negotiators are needed
- what Kanwal Rekhi calls lightning conductors
people who can collect the energy around them - there are enough theoreticians around that is
not enough - strategy is needed to build mass support for
liberalism
14Strategic intent and commitment
2
15All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is
that good men do nothing Edmund Burke You must
be the change you wish to see in the world
M. K. Gandhi
16Choices in front of each of us
- Run away
- Do nothing and hope nothing
- Hope that someone else will do it
- Make excuses since it is difficult
Rough road
- Teach someone else to do it
- Form a political party
- and do it!
Clear road ahead
17Hypothesis
- Ensuring change occurs on the ground requires
holding the power and authorisation of the people
to make the change happen - Existing political parties that hold power do not
understand how to get India to where it can be - Teaching them how to do it is a tedious and
wasteful process with little hope of success - Participating in Indias existing democratic
process, no matter how seriously flawed, is the
imperative
18Indias political spectrum
Heavy mixing
Huge vacuum Secular, economic liberalism
BJP
Mix religion and politics
Congress Party
Liberal Party
Communist Party
No mixing
Heavy role LEFT PARTIES
Role of government in economic activity
Minimal role RIGHT PARTY
19Adding a regional dimension
Religion-political mix
Regional priority
Economic role of govt
20Questions before the workshop
- What are the existing liberal platforms?
- Liberal Group, SBP, Lok Satta
- Do liberals need a separate political platform?
(administer poll) -
- Deciding the decision tree for the workshop
21Decision tree
YES/ with some effort
Action Plan
Immediate feasibility of political party
Feasibility of other political Platform/s OR
mass movement
NO
Action Plan
It may be desirable to build and sustain a
political platform even if a political party is
not feasible immediately provide opportunity to
potential political entrepreneurs/ visionaries
(Indian National Congress 1885 model)
22Why a political party?
- There are 100 big or small political parties in
India. Why do we need another one? - We all know we need one, but let us try and
codify a clear and concise answer that can be
consistently sold - Fill in the blanks
- We need a liberal political party because
23Strategic review
3
24Goal of strategic review
- Determine the key obstacles
- Determine the gap to be overcome
25Strategic process of workshop focus on
formulation
Strategy implementation
Strategy formulation
3. assess environmental factors
1.Identify current mission and strategic goals,
if any
- 2.Conduct competitive analysis
- strengths
- weakness
- opportunity
- threats
- Develop specific strategies
- operational
- functional
carry out strategic plans
maintain strategic control
4. assess human resource factors
26Strategic review method
- Learnings from the past
- 1. Environmental scan andforce field analysis
- 2. Causal analysis
- 3. Competitive analysis
- Customer (voter) analysis
- SWOT analysis
- Key constraints analysis
273.1 Learnings from the past Swatantra experience
3.1
- Haste makes waste avoid riff-raff (and the
corrupt) - Screen all members, leaders and candidates?
- Incremental growth better than too rapid?
- Build a chain of leaders
- Party should not die with death of a leader
- Potential leaders to be chosen who value the
party and the country more than themselves - Leaders to ensure that the party can be sustained
for long periods in the political wilderness, if
necessary - Summary of ones understanding of Pasricha next
slides
28Answer to this question needed
The Swatantra party was started on liberal
principles. What has changed since then that
will make people believe this time around this
another experiment will not degenerate and
disintegrate?
29Lesson No.1 Liberals are no different to other
human beings, and we should be humble and accept
our individual limitations Gandhi too had many
preconceived notions the one difference was that
he had less of them than others and was willing
to continuously learn. He wrote in Community
Service News, September -- October, 1946, "I have
great concern about introducing machine industry.
The machine produces too much too fast, and
brings with it a sort of economic system which I
cannot grasp. ... as we grow in understanding, if
we feel the need of machines, will certainly have
them. ... we shall introduce machines if and when
we need them." He kept saying that he was a
seeker for the Truth and was happy to be
corrected. Obviously one man can only learn so
much in one lifetime so we can understand why he
could not understand the capitalist system of
Adam Smith. If he could find the time to
understand it, he would have surely changed his
views. Liberals will need to build a political
organisation that is based entirely on rigorous
thinking, and complete equality. Lesson No. 2
Never tolerate a person on the Executive Council
who does not challenge any view that the person
does not agree with. Just because someone says
so, does not make a thing true. Even Masani made
such an appeal, that eventually destroyed the
party. At page 79 Pasricha says, "Mariswamy, the
general secretary of the Madras party, was
arguing against the alliance Grand Alliance of
1971 fairly cogently, when Masani interrupted
with the remark that Rajaji was in favour of the
alliance. A sudden, dramatic change came over
Mariswamy. He stopped in midstream and abjectly
announced that he withdrew his remarks
unreservedly and totally. It struck me as
extremely peculiar that the leader of the
National Executive level should so abjectly
withdraw his considered opinion merely at the
mention of Rajaji's opinion. This is a small
illustration of the type of leadership the
Swatantra party was able to scrounge."
Subservience to autocratic "rule", real or
perceived, is a more natural state of man than
democracy, particularly in India. Never
accept a sheep or 'yes men'. Lesson 3 Nip the
evil in the bud At page 130, Pasricha talks of
Masani being "fed up with the state of
indiscipline in the party." At page 36, Pasricha
points out how the Jan Sangh nipped in the bud
any deviationist by expelling him from the party.
People who discriminate against women, Harijans,
Muslims, etc., etc., need to be blocked at the
doorstep, but if they manage to infiltrate, they
need to be expelled at the first opportunity.
30 Lesson 4 Build party workers Nobody in the
party seemed to be bothered about building a set
of workers who would proselytise. Apostles were
in very short supply. A corps of trained, devoted
workers, functioning under the direct control of
a centre, could have sown the gospel far and wide
and counteracted the prevailing socialistic
rhetoric." "No attempt was made to formulate a
detailed scheme for the training of cadres."
(p.115) The party clearly did not have a strategy
for the long-term. It was dependent on Rajaji in
more ways than one. Lesson 5 Do not contest
elections until fully ready Repeatedly, Pasricha
shows the ill-judged keenness of state leaders as
well as National leaders to contest elections
well beyond the capacity of the party to
organise. Resources need to be spent
strategically and very prudently. Recklessness
and haste can only destroy. That is one more
reason to have big picture strategy to be
continuously reviewed. Lesson 6 Never consort
with parties the do not have the same
principles The moment the party compromises its
fundamental principles, it is as good as dead. We
are liberals. We do not provide Indian citizens
with a hodge podge of policies - strictly liberal
only. Lesson 7 Ensure rigorous audit of the
party Tendency of state units to be highly
factionalised, based on feudal or caste
principles. All the demerits of existing
political parties began to rapidly emerge in the
State units of the Swatantra party including
financial irregularities. A rigorous audit of
party membership, funds, processes, etc., is
essential for the party to not deteriorate
"around the fringes". Lesson 8 Place a
significant membership fee By putting a low
membership fee, wealthier individuals with
political ambitions are able to enrol a
significant number of dumb followers by paying
for their fees. Lesson 9 The importance of
allowing joint stock companies to fund political
parties
313.2 Environmental scan
3.2
Constitutional and Legal Environment (Indian,
global)
Technological Environment
Voter power and interests
Demographic Environment
EconomicEnvironment
Socio-cultural Environment
32Current liberal political strategy
- PETITIONS and PLEAS
- Ask political parties to make some basic changes
in the Constitution or the Representation of
Peoples Act - Has not worked
- Plead the Supreme Court to empower the people in
terms of knowledge of candidates background - Knowing more about candidates will not ensure
that liberal policies will automatically emerge
33Potential learning from environment scan
Opportunity knocks
- The environment for liberalism is at its best
ever, since the last 50 years - The challenge is
- How not to fail
- If we fail how to be resilient and not give up
- The first challenge is to begin
34Environment analysis Force Field Analysis
Restraining Forces (Negative) Driving Forces (Positive)
Past liberal efforts have run out of steam on completion of a great innings Increased momentum with CCS, Liberty Institute, Lok Satta, etc.
S.29 of ROP Act Desire to override constraint
Black money used by competitors State funding may eventuate?
Old guard (Swatantra)
35Competitive and demand analysis
3.3
Market Share Market Share Likely changes (Trajectory) Fund raising capacity Likely changes (Trajectory) Key drivers Into the future
Votes Ideas Likely changes (Trajectory) Fund raising capacity Likely changes (Trajectory) Key drivers Into the future
Congress 30 20 Medium ? History, hordes of corrupt money
BJP 45 40 ? High ? Hindu revival
Communists 10 10 Medium Nothing
Others 15 10 ? Medium ? Unknown
Liberals 0 20 ? Very Low? ? Evidence of economic success
365
6
Strengths A good number of liberal thinkers published in the common media Evidence based confidence in the liberal approach and knowledge of how the change can be managed Potential leadership in early 40s to mid-50s with new leadership rising on the horizon Weaknesses No track record Lack of funds to compete in the current electoral system Tendency to be associated with the failures of the past, viz. Swatantra party Lack of experience among liberal intellectuals in running a political platform through compromise on non-essential policy matters May not find competent candidates in each state The liberal ideology may create self-centredness and hinder voluntarism
Opportunities Huge middle-class that understands the advantage of education and greater opportunity A media (including TV) that often highlights the success of liberal principles across the world Threats Running an election today involves black money and thuggery Rs.2 crores per MP election Indias underworld of political leaders and police would be particularly unhappy if this succeeds
3.4
8
8
Scale of 1-10, 10 being big
37The conditions for the creation of a strong
Liberal front were never more ripe than they are
today.
38SWOT Implications an example
Key Opportunity A media that often highlights the success of liberal principles across the world Key Threats Running an election today involves black money and thuggery
Key Strength A good number of liberal thinkers who have been published in the common media Most likely Continuing growth in liberal ideas Possible Liberals will hesitate and fight shy of politics though they will write about our problems
Key Weakness Lack of self-confidence in the ability to form a successful political party Possible Unfulfilled demand for a liberal political party Unlikely Liberals will feel confident in forming a Party and contesting
KEY CHALLENGE How to overcome this
391. Indian liberals tend not to see themselves (in
a theoretical framework) as providers of
governance services, but providers of gently
tendered advice to socialists and ruffians
through newspapers and booklets. This mirrors
what liberals did with the British in 1890s to
1930s, but that method made them irrelevant to
India's freedom. One sees the provision of
governance as a fundamental liberal obligation,
but there are few takers of this basic
theoretical view. Ie., of the two key pillars of
liberalism, viz., capitalism and democracy, we
are 100 at ease with capitalism but 0 with
democracy. Most of us preach participation in
democracy by the people but shun it like leprosy
personally, since democracy is a beautiful word
but "too dirty" to touch. We may be half-liberal
in a theoretical sense. We have no (or few)
Thomas Jefferson or James Madison or Edmund
Burke, or Rajaji or even Sapru. 2. We have
extremely limited resources in terms of funds,
support or people almost no Indian industrialist
of any standing has any interest in promoting
liberalism, leave alone a liberal political
alternative. We do not even know 50 people who
would like to come to the seminar on 9th January.
3. The intricacies and enormous magnitude of the
needed effort are not readily appreciated nor the
complex problem of inventing a viable incentive
system to sustain the effort. .
40Electoral success its causes(fishbone)
3.6
Resources
Image
Funds
Message
Unity
Accountability
Volunteers
Integrity
Humility and courtesy
Electoral success
Credibility
One on one persuasion
Regular contact
- Having the material to deliver
- Delivering
- Winning again and again till the job is done
Dependability
Reliability
Attention to voter
41Key barriers and gap (supply side)
42Strategic analysis and options
4
43Barrier 1 No clear message
"impossibility of weaning away the half-starved,
illiterate electorate of India from the fantastic
charms evoked by the repetitive intonations of
the blessings expected from the socialistic haven
the Congress was building." (Pasricha)
If a powerful and simple message can be created,
it will attract people and resources. If such a
message had existed in the past, this workshop
would have been completely redundant, since
someone would surely have taken the message to
the people. A major focus therefore has to be in
determining whether we have a distinctive and
attractive message, and what does it look like?
The message would have to be short and
persuasive. None of the potential messages so far
have met that criteria.
44Strategy to overcome barrier - Stagewise
differentiation
- It is the median voter that counts
- Extreme position (e.g. strongly libertarian) is
unlikely to enthuse the median voter - Libertarian party in USA is struggling and will
continue to struggle for a very long time - Classical liberal thinkers with libertarian
policies will need to educate the population and
ensure that median voter understands these ideas
and policies - Societal equity must be on the agenda e.g.
negative income tax
45Stagewise differentiation - contd
- Until the voter is convinced that the Liberal
Party will not attack the unions, and will
eliminate poverty as a top priority, the voter is
unlikely to support this effort - There must be a gradual shift in policy positions
from slightly right-of-centre initially, to more
classical positions as the population understands
the value of classical liberal thinking - This strategy would ensure that political power
is obtained immediately rather than in the
distant future - so that the positive cycle of
stagewise differentiation can come into play - Being hard-bound on espousing a strongly
libertarian position initially would destroy the
Party given that India comes from a very
socialist tradition, unlike the USA
46How we can compete
3.5
Way forward
- Differentiation (30 of effort) integrity/
ethical, peace, evidence of success of such
policies (efficacy) - Marketing (70 of effort) building the image,
credibility, viability
47Potential messages
- - Hamein aur kahein jaana hai, gandagi aur garibi
se door - - Bharat ko das saal me Singapore banaieynge
- - visuals of communal rioting on one side and
peaceful, wealthy communities on the other - - Hamari party ki guarantee - kabhi koi
bhrashtachaar nahin - Hamein bahut kuchh badalna hai
- Swaraj se swatantrata ki or
- Bhrastachar char imandar sahabon aur netaon se
nahin shasan vyavstha me krantikari parivartan se
ghatega - Sarkar har haal mein aapaki svatantrata ki
rakshak pahle hai sevak baad mein - Sarkar janta ka dhan lekar janta ke kaam
acchitarah nahin karati, isliye sarkar chhoti ho
to janta ka dhan kam kharch hoga....
48Bounds to our message
- Passion about our product is helpful, but
emotional nonsense often does not sell. - Constructive disagreements within or outside will
help make our product more valuable. Picking
fights, emotional outbursts and sabre-rattling
will not. - What kind of linguistic civility/discipline do
we incorporate while still maintaining solid
grounding on liberal principles and freedom of
expression?
49Barrier 2 Leader/s
- Leaders emerge when
- situation is ripe (risks are minimal)
- intellectual climate shifts
- We cannot expect leaders to be risk takers
- provide significant certainty of success
- provide some certainty of durability of the
demand - demand reflected in take up of business plan by
intellectual and financial investors - asking anyone to plunge into ankle-deep water
is futile
50Entrepreneurs are not risk takers They start a
process when all risks are controlled and the
outcome is clearly visible
Risks in this business need to be overcome to
attract politically interested people
Dissonance among leaders
No funding source, few candidates
Better to not begin such a thing
51Barrier 3 People to run party
- Most educated and working class people don't
seem to care for politics anyway. This same
educated class is supposed to be our starting
base. Why will this traditionally indifferent
class of people will respond? - Government still happens to be the largest
employer in India. Won't the educated voters, who
have dependency with government jobs, feel
threatened by associating themselves with a
liberal movement?
52Barrier 4 Funds for growth and elections
- It is clear that at least Rs. 2 crores is needed
for contesting a parliamentary election these
days. Most of this is black money, and the
government is only informed about a part of this
expenditure, usually lt Rs 15 lakhs - The Liberal party cannot and will not countenance
any compromise of this kind - Strategy
- Spend ltRs 15 lakhs per constituency through
frugal use and leveraging a wide variety of
strategic leavers, e.g. the media, regular
contact with voters, etc. - Contest only once sure of winning a large number
of seats. Numerous amendments to existing Acts
have to be made theres not much point working
as an ineffective opposition
53Funds - conditionalities
- What kind of control are we willing to cede to
the venture capital investors? - What kind of conditions, either in direction or
pace, are we willing to accept in return for the
financial support?
54Barrier 5 - S.29 of ROP Act
- Fact The election commission cannot
recognise a party unless it declares allegiance
to socialism. No existing political party,
including the BJP has any interest in changing
this. - Only the Liberal Party, when in 2/3rd majority,
can change this hopeless situation. - But can a Liberal party be formed with such
coercive allegiance? - OPTIONS The Constitution does not define
socialism - call ourselves socialists as per our definition
of socialism - call ourselves socialists for purposes of the
Constitution. - sign the allegiance but record a written protest
- separately. - As soon as we can change Indias Constitution and
offending enactments, expunge from the party
constitution etc. - Ethics The word ethical behaviour does
not exist in the dictionary of socialists. They
cheat at election time, and fleece the people
whenever given an opportunity to govern. Telling
a lie in such a miserable situation for the sake
of changing the situation so that lies need not
be said, is ethically sound.
55Strategy place to go
5a
56Vision and Mission
Vision To achieve an India with the highest
standard of living and quality of life in the
world. Mission To provide durable and
long-lasting, highest quality of governance
services compatible with principles of economic,
social, religious, and political freedom to the
people of India through a national liberal
political party
57Methods and Values
Methods Persuasion through debate and discussion
is the only acceptable method of discourse.
Solutions that exhort others to do something
different or differently or that require human
nature to change are not acceptable. Values The
citizens trust and advancement is our most
valued asset trust that is obtained through
unflinching insistence on integrity with no
compromise on basic principles. We insist on the
highest ethical standards in public as well as in
private life. Nothing that we do will be of
any value if it does not in some way assist the
poorest of the poor in India in making their life
better.
58Strategy how to go there
5b
59A possible road map 2004-2011
ZERO 4 years
ZERO 7 years
ZERO 1 year
Time ZERO
2004/05 ?
Phase 1 KICK OFF Full prepn. of party and
policy documents Registration
Phase 0 GO NO GO Liberals decide to deliver a
national party sign documents
Phase 2 EXPANSION
Phase 3 TESTING THE WATER
60- Phase 0 Go - no go
-
- Workshop 15-20 persons 5-8 Jan 2004
- Strategy
- Draft the key messages,
- Sketch the constitution, party documents
(membership, donations, policy process etc. - Elect spokespersons and agree to process
- Set up process to finalise party documents
- Action Plan (next page)
- Seminar 50 persons to disseminate plan
61Action Plan
- Finalise party documents including policy
positions - Market the concept advancing the imperative and
building coalitions key individuals eg. popular
personalities may help. - Find the founders 100 registered voters
- Fund collection Rs. 10 lakhs to stage national
platform - The organisation will have to set the highest
financial benchmarks possible Indians are tired
of crooks running political parties how is this
to be ensured? - The mainstay of fund collection will have to be
the membership its advantage is in terms of
voluntary commitment and a direct indication of
support - Build and run full web site
- Spokesman to issue press statements regularly
- Organise National Platform (if necessary precede
by Workshop)
62Immediate commitments needed
- Willing to be a policy writer
- Willing to help in organisational work and web
site - Willing to contribute
- gt 100 lakhs
- 1-100 lakhs
- lt 1 lakh
- Willing to consider later
63- Phase 1 PARTY KICK-OFF - 2005?
- National Platform. 2 days. 1000 persons
- All documents ready for sign-off
- Hold final discussions and confirm the GO
decision - Office bearers and spokesmen elected
- EleCom docs signed by 100 founding members
- Party launched in as many states as possible
- Register the Party
- Recruit 2-5 full time staff and set up office
- Spokesman to issue press statements regularly
- Build endowment for Liberal College
- Collect funds for next stage Rs. 1 crore
64PARTY STRATEGY
Party Level
State Level
State A State B State Y State Z
Marketing
Human Resource
Finance and Accounts
Information technology
Functional Level
65Liberal Party College strategy
- To be formed after the go decision
- Eg. Republican efforts in USA
- To be located around New Delhi
- Large endowment needed
- Objects
- Publisher, library, and sabbatical resource for
the party - Training of electoral candidates
- College of liberals to be fully funded and active
even outside election periods - RISK Can become centre of vested interests that
are not in touch with grassroots
66- Phase 2 EXPANSION
- (ZERO 4 years)
- Market the existence of the Party
- Recruit new members
- Set up State branches and hold elections
- Provide them clear roles
- Fund collection for next stage Rs. 5-7 crores
- Prepare policies for implementation if elected to
power 1 year intensive activity
67- Phase 3 TESTING THE WATER
- (ZERO 7 years)
- Invite potential candidates
- Massive fund collection drive hundreds of
crores, or as much as necessary - Screen candidates
- Train candidates on policies 3 months each in
Liberal College - Decide what to contest winning control is
critical - A few states only? Electoral alliances ?
- Finalise Manifesto for the election/s
- Final approval of candidates
- Send candidates to the hustings
68Notes for Phase 3
- Candidate selection to be based on application
process focused on knowledge and commitment - Minimum expectations to be met by all candidates
69(draft) Resolutions
- We resolve to work together as a team to examine,
motivate, and put into place a liberal platform
that would be robust in terms of quality and
integrity, and durable in terms of longevity. We
resolve to encourage and take on board others who
are so inclined. -
- We recognise the need for India to move forward
into the future based on principles of
liberalism. These principles insist on tolerance,
mutual respect, the need for government that
enforces the rule of law and protects the
individual, and minimal interference by
government in the affairs of the citizen. -
- We resolve to adopt the document entitled, Basic
assumptions of a liberal, Version 1. Over the
course of time this document will be expanded and
even modified where necessary. -
- We resolve to adopt the Vision, Mission, Values,
Goals, Objectives, Strategies and Actions defined
elsewhere in this document. -
- We resolve to implement adopt the Action Plan
determined by us jointly on 8 January 2004. -
- We resolve to meet again in a year's time under
the banner of the India Policy Institute.
70