A VOLCANIC PROBLEM

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A VOLCANIC PROBLEM

• Earth 101
• October, 2005

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VOLCANOES COMMUNITIES

• Weve learned much about volcanoes in the last
  few decades, but weve been building around them
  for a long time.
• In most countries there is no cultural memory
  about past hazards to help us plan and develop
  our communities.
• At times, our communities have to deal with new
  risks as new hazards are identified.

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HAZARD MITIGATION

• We can classify hazard mitigation efforts into
  two broad categories
• Short term
• Short term mitigation includes evacuation and
  emergency response.
• Long Term
• Long term planning includes monitoring,
  evacuation planning and drilling, land use,
  building codes, etc.

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LONG-TERM MITIGATION

• Much of what we can do to limit the risk involved
  in hazards requires long-term efforts and
  investments.

• Informed decisions on land use and/or the
  location of critical facilities are
  necessary to reduce the risks associated with
  disasters.

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OUR EXERCISE

• We are going to act out a scenario involving the
  reaction of citizens of a small U.S. city that
  has recently found out that their local high
  school sits in the path of volcanic mud-flows or
  lahars.
• The city must decide what action (if any) is
  necessary to ensure the safety of their children.

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OUR EDUCATIONAL OBJECTIVES

• We will explore community issues that arise in
  dealing with a potential (nearby) volcanic
  hazard. We will note how these issues affect
  decisions that need to be made for the safety of
  the community.
• Any decisions that we make may be subjective, but
  provided that we thoroughly explore the issues,
  we may be confidant in our choices.

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OUR SCHEDULE Today

• Setup the Problem
• Assign Roles - Take a minute to think
  about how your character would react
• Meet in groups - PTA, Retirement Community,
  School Board, Chamber of Commerce, Mayor
  Council, etc.

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OUR SCHEDULE Next Class

• GROUP MEETINGS
• Discussion (any new ideas/issues?)
• Geology Presentation
• TOWN MEETING
• TOWN VOTE
• Majority decides fate of school
• A CASE STUDY
• How one town actually dealt with a similar
  problem.

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BACKGROUNDSCIENTIFIC INFO

• The science involved is actually not in line with
  common perceptions of science - IT IS VAGUE.
• Part of our fictional city (OURTOWN) has in the
  past been inundated by lahars about every
  500-1000 years. The last lahar through the area
  was about 350 years ago.
• We cannot predict with much certainty
  whether another will occur in the short
  term.

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OUR PROBLEM

• Part of the land susceptible to lahars includes a
  large public school complex.
• The school is not brand new, but the community
  expected it to last at least another 25 years.
• The school complex includes about 2,000 students.

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PASTEXTENTOF LAHARS
Crazy River
Pardon River
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OUR CHOICES

• We have several alternative actions. Each has
  risks and/or financial consequences.
• 1. Do nothing.
• 2. Install an early warning system to detect
  lahars and evacuate students in the event of a
  disaster.
• 3. Build a new school.
• 4. Do both 2 and 3.

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LOCAL POLITICS

• Since each action has risks costs, our decision
  is political.
• You will be asked to assume the role of an
  individual in a particular interest group.
• The better you play your role, the more
  enlightening this activity will be.

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THE CAST OF CHARACTERS

• The Mayor City Council
• The School Board
• The Chamber of Commerce
• Members of the local PTA (Parents
  Teachers Association)
• Single young professionals
• Retired individuals and couples
• Middle-aged single unemployed individuals
• Single parents living in lahar-prone regions near
  the school

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GROUP MEETING TASKS

• Our ultimate goal is to make a community decision
  on what to do about the school.
• Identifying what information you need to make a
  decision
• Prioritizing that information in line with your
  groups personal agenda.
• Each group will be asked to speak at the Town
  Meeting - choose a representative.

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OURTOWNTOPOMAP
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