61st Interdepartmental Hurricane

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Interagency Strategic Research Plan For Tropical
Cyclones A View from The Top
61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Kim
Curry Deputy Technical Director Oceanographer of
the Navy
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Bottom Line Up Front
Question What are Navy strengths in Tropical
Cyclone Research? - Development of Navy
models NOGAPS / COAMPS - Funding of
academia, industry and federal laboratories
- Vigorous research program in coupled ocean and
atmosphere models - Efficient end-to-end
research to operations transition Question
Which research priorities detailed in the
inter-agency strategic research
plan is Navy addressing? - Coupled
ocean-atmosphere modeling and data assimilation
- Quantitative use of remote sensing
observations - Impact of Tropical Cyclones
on the maritime domain Question What resources
can Navy bring to bear on TC research? -
Basic research (6.1) 3.5M / yr -
Applied research (6.2) 2M / yr -
Transition to Operations (6.4) 600K / yr
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BLUF (Cont)
Question From the policy perspective, how can
Navy help gain inter-agency support for TC
research through individual agency budgets and
on Capitol Hill? Navy will continue to
participate at the appropriate mission level in
Joint development programs and interagency
activities
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59th IHC -Operational Requirements 2005

• Validated 14 Operational Requirements of the TC
  
• Forecast and Warning Centers
• Department of Defense emphasized their top
  three
• Operational Requirements (OR)
• Improved track forecasts out to 5 days
• Improved structure forecasts radius of 50-kt
• and 35-kt wind radii
• More accurate forecasts of wave heights and
• radius of 12 foot seas

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60th IHC - Research Requirements 2006

• Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) )
  system developed by Naval Research Laboratory
  (NRL), Monterey to optimize the forecasting
  process.

Operational Users include Joint Typhoon
Warning Center National Hurricane Center
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Navy sponsored RD includes Tropical Cyclone
Genesis Probabilistic Prediction of High Impact
Weather Multi-Scale Tropical Dynamics
Developmental efforts in Ocean Coupling and Data
Assimilation directly enable TC track and
intensity forecasts
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Office of Naval Research Basic and Applied
The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the
Predictability of Western Pacific TyphoonsPOCs
Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D. CDR Daniel Eleuterio,
Ph.D. ONR 322MM

• A new ONR Department Research Initiative (DRI)
  beginning
• in FY08
• First major WESTPAC field experiment since TCM93
• 10M over 5 years (basic research), leveraging
  T-PARC
• Focus on lack of understanding of storm scale
  processes
• (the biggest knowledge
  gap)
• GOALS
• - Increase the predictability of the
  environmental forcing, formation, outer
  wind structure and intensity of TCs over the
  western North Pacific
• - Reduce errors in TC structure and intensity
  forecasts by 50 within a
• decade

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Characterizing Impact Of Typhoons On The Western
Pacific Ocean
Linwood Vincent, Ph.D Terri Paluszkiewicz,
Ph.D Physical
Oceanography, ONR 322PO

A new ONR Department Research Initiative (DRI)
beginning in FY08 - Building on ONR CBLAST
Hurricane Program - 12M over 5 years (basic
research) - Focus on improved prediction of
waves mixed layer GOALS - Enhance methods to
monitor waves and winds from SAR
for Assimilation into coupled
ocean-wave-atmosphere models - Improve
representation of wave induced mixing in upper
ocean - Use SAR assimilating model to study
storm passages around islands and onto shelves
An Ocean Parallel to Dr. Fereks WESTPAC Typhoon
Proposal
Explore Our Planet Website
Tropical Cyclones 1850-2006
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ONR - Science Issues/Gaps Forecast models do
not represent all the physics Up-scale transfer
of energy is not well understood. Observations
are sparse/inadequate in critical
regions Inadequate quantitative use of all the
available RS data Storm scale processes are
poorly understood Progress is now possible on TC
Evolution Problem Models DA are getting
better Coupling to the ocean, modulated by
waves Cloud-resolving model skill has
advanced Experimental assets will be available
in the WestPac for the first time since
1993 Once-a-decade opportunity T-PARC has focused
the research community Many new satellite remote
sensing tools have become available since
93 Several more by 2008 Verification vs. TC
observations has never been done
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ONR - Naval Relevance

• Increased medium-range predictability of the
  tropical large-scale environmental factors that
  influence tropical cyclone formation
• Increased predictability of the location, timing,
  and rate of tropical cyclone formation over the
  western North Pacific
• Increased predictability of the evolution of the
  outer-wind structure of intensifying and mature
  tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific
• Increased understanding and predictability of
  factors that determine motion of a TC through ET
  or landfall over the western North Pacific

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Naval Research Laboratory Support for TC Research

• Tropical cyclone research at NRL is performed in
  the following areas
• TROPICAL DYNAMICS AND PHYSICS
• Tropical predictability.
• Cyclogenesis.
• Air-sea interaction.
• DATA ASSIMILATION
• Atmosphere and Ocean
• New data sources
• Advanced methodologies
• Targeted observing techniques
• Improved TC initialization
• MODEL DEVELOPMENT
• Air-Ocean-Wave-Land coupling
• Improved multiscale ocean and numerical weather
  prediction
• Ensemble/consensus/probabilistic guidance
  techniques.
• SATELLITE DATA FUSION
• DECISION AIDS (e.g., ATCF)

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General Research Topic Tropical Cyclone
Genesis
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General Research Topic Intensity and Structure
Changes
Wilma
512 km
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Program Executive Office PMW180 Research to
Operations

• Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) System
• Forecast development software
• Incorporate new data sources, algorithms,
  technology

• Small-Scale Atmospheric Models COAMPS Upgrade
• Two-way Interactive grids
• CBLAST Surface/Boundary Layer physics
• Dynamic TC Initialization
• Land/Surface Model

• Intensity Structure via Multi-Sensor
  Combination
• Transition Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
  (AMSU) data to
• FNMOC/JTWC
• Newly developed multi-sensor (passive
  microwave/IR/Sounder)
• assimilation

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General Research Topic Role of the Ocean
NRL is developing fully coupled systems that
include ocean data assimilation and prediction
capability for u, v, t, S, SSH, waves, and surf.
.
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STORM SURGE PREDICTION SYSTEM
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WWW NHC Marine Advisory Data
Run PC-Tides Obtain Holland Hurricane Model
Winds
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000 WTNT25 KNHC 062031 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302005 2100Z FRI
JAN 06 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED
NEAR 23.4N 50.3W FORECASTER STEWART
Interpolate Winds to Mesh
DELIVERED TO NAVOCEANO, May 2006
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Run ADCIRC
ADCIRC Coastal and Estuarine Modeling Team
Cheryl Ann Blain, T. Christopher Massey, James D.
Dykes, Pamela G. Posey NRL Code 7300
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Questions?