Objectives

1
(No Transcript)
2
Objectives

• To gauge reactions to the war on Iraq across key
  West African countries in terms of
• Support for America and her allies vs. Support
  for continued inspections
• Reasons for the war on Iraq
• Popularity of key political leaders
• Perception of the US vis-à-vis her main
  adversaries in the Security Council

3
Coverage

• Nigeria
• Ghana
• Cameroon
• Chad
• Togo
• Mali
• Burkina Faso
• Senegal

4
Achieved Sample
Data were weighted by population size and religion
5
Proportion of Muslims
Cameroon
Senegal
Burkina
Nigeria
Ghana
Chad
Togo
Mali
Population In millions 11 12 9
133
13 16 5 20
94
90
51
50
50
20
20
16
Muslims
84
80
80
50
50
49
10
Non-Muslims
6
Source CIA Factbook
6
Opinions on the War
7
Problems Facing the World Today
Base All Respondents
8
To what extent have you followed developments in
the Iraq Crisis in the media?
9
Security Council was right to reject military
action and to demand continued inspections?
OrSecurity
Council should have supported America and her
allies?
Total Non-
Total
63
-30
87
-8
Muslim
Muslims
82
-10
Senegal
96
-2
Ghana
80
-10
Burkina
91
-5
Senegal
78
-17
90
-2
Togo
Cameroon
78
-20
Ghana
88
-6
Cameroon
74
-17
Togo
87
-9
Nigeria
67
-21
Mali
81
-5
Chad
63
-23
Chad
81
-13
Mali
53
Nigeria
-39
77
-7
Burkina
10
Reasons for War on Iraq1st Response
11
Reasons for War on IraqTotal Spontaneous
Responses
12
Justified War?Net Scores (Justified minus
unjustified)by country
13
Justified War?Net Scores (Justified minus
unjustified)by religion and country
Muslims
Non-Muslims
38
Nigeria
18
Chad
11
Togo
-10
Ghana
-21
Mali
-30
Cameroon
-34
Burkina
-40
Senegal
14
Should your country support or not support
military action against Iraq?
15
Expected Duration of War
16
Popularity of Personalities
17
Popularity Net Scores(Like minus Dislike)
Total Sample
All Muslims
All Non- Muslims
18
Nelson Mandela(Net Scores)
Total
Muslims
Non-Muslims
19
Kofi Annan(Net Scores)
Total
Muslims
Non-Muslims
20
Jacques Chirac(Net Scores)
Total
Muslims
Non-Muslims
21
Gerhard Schröder(Net Scores)
Total
Muslims
Non-Muslims
22
Tony Blair(Net Scores)
Total
Muslims
Non-Muslims
9
TOTAL
31
Ghana
23
Nigeria
13
Togo
-11
Chad
-15
Burkina
-28
Cameroon
-32
Mali
-64
Senegal
23
George W. Bush(Net Scores)
Total
Muslims
Non-Muslims
TOTAL
Ghana
Nigeria
Togo
Chad
Burkina
Mali
Cameroon
Senegal
24
Saddam Hussein(Net Scores)
Total
Muslims
Non-Muslims
-13
TOTAL
5
Cameroon
2
Chad
-6
Mali
-8
Nigeria
-20
Burkina
-27
Senegal
-37
Togo
-45
Ghana
25
Osama Bin Laden(Net Scores)
Total
Muslims
Non-Muslims
-13
TOTAL
26
Senegal
9
Mali
9
Cameroon
-10
Burkina
-12
Chad
-14
Nigeria
-25
Togo
-58
Ghana
26
Homogeneous Groups- Personality Ratings (All
Respondents)
a no significant (95) difference between
personalities b no significant (95) difference
between personalities e.t.c.
27
Homogeneous Groups- Personality Ratings (All
Muslims)
a no significant (95) difference between
personalities b no significant (95) difference
between personalities e.t.c.
28
Homogeneous Groups- Personality Ratings (All
Non-Muslims)
a no significant (95) difference between
personalities b no significant (95) difference
between personalities e.t.c.
29
Popularity Net ScoresTrend 2002 2003George
W. Bush
Muslims
Non-Muslims
Project Rush I Presented at GIA Conference,
Johannesburg, May 2002
30
Popularity Net ScoresTrend 2002 2003Tony
Blair
Muslims
Non-Muslims
Project Rush I Presented at GIA Conference,
Johannesburg, May 2002
31
Popularity Net ScoresTrend 2002 2003Jacques
Chirac
Muslims
Non-Muslims
Project Rush I Presented at GIA Conference,
Johannesburg, May 2002
32
Popularity Net ScoresTrend 2002 2003Saddam
Hussein
Muslims
Non-Muslims
Project Rush I Presented at GIA Conference,
Johannesburg, May 2002
33
Popularity Net ScoresTrend 2002 2003Osama
Bin Laden
Muslims
Non-Muslims
Project Rush I Presented at GIA Conference,
Johannesburg, May 2002
34
Perception of Countries
35
Perception of CountriesExplained Variance 84
Total Sample
23
Imperialist
USA
Arrogant
Gives development aid
Committed to
Is a threat to world
UK
democracy
Has weapons of mass
peace
61
destruction
A friend to Africa
ISRAEL
Appealing image
Supports terrorism
IRAQ
RUSSIA
CHINA
FRANCE
NORTH KOREA
Is a country I support
GERMANY
LIBYA
Peaceful nation
SOUTH AFRICA
Respects United
Resists American
Nations
domination
36
Proximities between Countries- Total Sample
37
Perception of CountriesExplained Variance 84
38
Perception of CountriesExplained Variance 83
All Muslims
39
Proximities between Countries- All Muslims
40
Perception of CountriesExplained Variance 88
All Non-Muslims
41
Proximities between Countries- All Non-Muslims
42
USA vs. Iraq(Total Sample Net Scores)
69
Gives development aid
66
Committed to democracy
63
Imperialist
44
A friend to Africa
26
Appealing image
USA Winning
19
Arrogant
14
Peaceful nation
10
Has WMD
7
Respects United Nations
Iraq Winning
-5
Is a threat to world peace
-6
Is a country I support
-31
Supports terrorism
-65
Resists American domination
43
USA vs. Iraq(All Muslims Net Scores)
75
Imperialist
60
Gives development aid
54
Committed to democracy
53
Arrogant
36
Has WMD
35
Is a threat to world peace
30
A friend to Africa
USA Winning
3
Appealing image
3
Supports terrorism
Iraq Winning
3
Peaceful nation
-5
Respects United Nations
-25
Is a country I support
-64
Resists American domination
44
USA vs. Iraq(All Non-Muslims Net Scores)
Gives development aid
78
76
Committed to democracy
A friend to Africa
57
Imperialist
51
Appealing image
47
25
Peaceful nation
USA Winning
Respects United Nations
18
Is a country I support
13
Arrogant
-12
Iraq Winning
Has WMD
-15
Is a threat to world peace
-43
Supports terrorism
-63
-67
Resists American domination
45
USA vs. France(Total Sample Net Scores)
Imperialist
58
51
Arrogant
Has WMD
44
Is a threat to world peace
41
Gives development aid
24
USA Winning
21
Supports terrorism
Committed to democracy
20
A friend to Africa
1
Appealing image
0
France Winning
Is a country I support
-25
Resists American domination
-32
Peaceful nation
-32
-40
Respects United Nations
46
USA vs. France(All Muslims Net Scores)
Imperialist
68
66
Arrogant
Is a threat to world peace
57
Has WMD
52
Supports terrorism
34
USA Winning
17
Gives development aid
Committed to democracy
9
A friend to Africa
-11
Appealing image
-14
France Winning
Resists American domination
-28
Is a country I support
-30
Peaceful nation
-41
-47
Respects United Nations
47
USA vs. France(All Non-Muslims Net Scores)
Imperialist
48
37
Arrogant
Has WMD
37
Gives development aid
31
Committed to democracy
30
26
Is a threat to world peace
Appealing image
13
USA Winning
A friend to Africa
12
France Winning
Supports terrorism
10
Is a country I support
-19
Peaceful nation
-24
Respects United Nations
-34
-36
Resists American domination
48
USA vs. Germany(Total Sample Net Scores)
61
Imperialist
51
Arrogant
46
Has WMD
41
Is a threat to world peace
37
Gives development aid
35
Committed to democracy
USA Winning
23
A friend to Africa
21
Supports terrorism
9
Appealing image
Germany Winning
-17
Peaceful nation
-20
Is a country I support
-28
Respects United Nations
-31
Resists American domination
49
USA vs. Germany(All Muslims Net Scores)
Imperialist
72
67
Arrogant
Is a threat to world peace
57
Has WMD
54
Supports terrorism
34
32
Gives development aid
USA Winning
Committed to democracy
31
Germany Winning
A friend to Africa
15
Appealing image
-3
Resists American domination
-21
Is a country I support
-21
Peaceful nation
-24
-33
Respects United Nations
50
USA vs. Germany(All Non-Muslims Net Scores)
Imperialist
51
41
Gives development aid
Has WMD
39
Committed to democracy
38
Arrogant
37
30
A friend to Africa
Is a threat to world peace
26
USA Winning
Appealing image
20
Germany Winning
Supports terrorism
9
Peaceful nation
-11
Is a country I support
-19
Respects United Nations
-24
-42
Resists American domination
51
UK vs. France(Total Sample Net Scores)
Imperialist
15
12
Arrogant
Is a threat to world peace
9
Supports terrorism
6
Has WMD
5
UK Winning
1
Gives development aid
Committed to democracy
1
Is a country I support
-2
France Winning
Appealing image
-6
A friend to Africa
-10
Resists American domination
-20
Peaceful nation
-22
-32
Respects United Nations
52
Correlations withA Country I Support
53
SUMMARY
54
Summary

• Across the region, the war on Iraq is considered
  the most serious problem facing the world today
  (57).
• Coverage of events in the media is generating
  high levels of interest.
• Operation Iraqi Freedom is fundamentally
  unpopular even among Non-Muslims, the war is
  considered unjustified. Only in Nigeria do
  Non-Muslims see justification for the war.
• However, only a minority among Non-Muslims feel
  that their own country should support the war.
• Across all countries, Muslims are solidly
  condemning the war as unjustified.

55
Summary

• Among political leaders, Nelson Mandela, followed
  by Kofi Annan, is the most popular figure, among
  Muslims and Non-Muslims alike.
• Also, Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder are
  perceived positively across countries and
  religious divides.
• Tony Blair and George W. Bush are thoroughly
  unpopular among Muslims in all countries. Even
  among Non-Muslims, they are popular only in
  Nigeria and Ghana. However, while Blair can at
  least achieve some overall popularity, Bushs
  image is negative.
• Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden have
  considerable support among Muslims however,
  while Saddam Hussein appears to be somewhat
  controversial even among Muslims, Osama Bin Laden
  is favourably perceived by Muslims across all
  countries.

56
Summary

• France and Germany, along with China and South
  Africa are seen as peaceful countries, who
  respect the United Nations.
• Although the US is acknowledged as a democratic
  country, it is perceived as imperialistic and
  arrogant among Muslims also as a threat to world
  peace.
• Russia does not profit from aligning herself with
  France in the Security Council along with
  Israel, it falls into the vicinity of the arch
  villains Iraq, Libya and North Korea.
• It is acknowledged that Iraq possesses WMD and
  supports terrorism this, however, is
  counterbalanced by the perception that it resists
  American domination.
• Thus, despite the presence of WMD, Africans
  across the sampled countries do not approve of
  military action rather, they would have given
  support to continued UN weapons inspections.

57
(No Transcript)