After the US Election: The Future of Climate Policy

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After the US ElectionThe Future of Climate
Policy

• Thomas L. Brewer
• Georgetown University
• Washington, DC

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Outline of Comments

• 1. Presidential election results
• 2. Administration policies
• 3. Congress
• 4. Business
• 5. Public
• 6. Predictions

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Presidential Outcome
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Demographics of Presidential Vote

• Obama-Biden won
• in all sections of the country except some
  southern states and some prairie states
• overwhelmingly in major urban centers, including
  the suburbs, in nearly all parts of the country
• three states that had not gone Democratic in over
  40 years
• among most demographic groups except white males
  over 45 and evangelicals

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Obama on climate change and energy issues

• Co-sponsor of mandatory cap-and-trade system
  favors US 80 reduction of GHG emissions over
  1990 levels by 2050
• Sponsor of several biofuel subsidy bills
• Detailed clean energy proposals see annex

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Biden

• Introduced the first climate change legislation
  in Congress in 1986
• Sponsor of the Biden-Lugar-Hagel-Menendez bill to
  establish an International Clean Energy Fund
  pending in 2008

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• Framing issues economic stimulus, job creation,
  energy independence, technological leadership
• Increases in funding for clean energy technology
  projects (15 billion x 10 years)
• Mandatory cap-and-trade system (in 2010?)

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What to expect from Obama-BidenInternational
policies

• Constructive engagement in international
  negotiations but aversion to treaty with
  specific mandatory US targets
• More international technology RDD cooperation
• Airlines in EU ETS less hostility, temporize

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Congress the party distributions
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Three Thresholds in the Senate

• 51 for Simple Majority
• 60 for Closure of Debate
• 67 for Treaty Ratification

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Climate Change in the Senate

• 2008 Vote on Boxer-Lieberman-Warner Bill
• Voted in favor of closure 48
• Said they would have if present 6
• Subtotal 54
• Said they would not have voted
• for substance 10
• Apparent net support 44

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Party distributions Senate procedural vote on
Boxer-Lieberman-Warner
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How many votes are there in the new Senate for a
cap-and-trade system?

• Probably enough
• But how strong?

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How many votes are there in the new Senate for a
Climate Change Treaty?

• Not enough!?

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How many votes are there in the new House for a
US Cap-and-Trade System?

• Probably enough.
• Key bill is Dingell-Boucher.

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Likely Features of US Cap-and-Trade System (if
passed in 2009-2010)

• Emission reduction targets
• Covered sectors
• Allowance allocation
• Distribution of revenues
• Offsetting border measures on imports

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What about business?

• Business is mostly still opposed to
  cap-and-trade
• but
• support is increasing among major firms, for
  instance, US CAP (Climate Action Partnership).

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Climate Action PartnershipCorporate Members

• Alcoa
• AIG
• Boston Scientific
• BP America
• Caterpillar
• Chrysler
• ConocoPhillips
• Deere
• Dow Chemical
• Duke Energy
• DuPont
• Exelon
• Ford
• FPL Group
• GE
• General Motors
• Johnson Johnson
• Marsh
• NRG Energy

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What about public opinion?

• Majority support for
• US participation in Kyoto Protocol
• More action by federal government on a broad
  range of policies (but not taxes)
• But there are still differences among parties and
  regions

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Predictions

• December 2008 Active informal engagement at
  COP/MOP but no commitments of any kind
• January-September 2009 Proposal by the
  administration - and passage by the congress of
  large increases in clean energy technology
  programs as part of economic stimulus package
  and as part of regular budget cycle
• December 2009 At COP/MOP, agreement to
  participate in emission reduction programs
  perhaps on the basis of US ratification of
  UNFCCC and/or use of executive agreement approval
  process, not treaty ratification

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• January-September 2010 Push for national
  cap-and-trade system adoption by Congress
• Threatened or even actual - use of
  administrative procedures to establish
  cap-and-trade on basis of 2007 Supreme Court
  decision in Massachusetts vs. EPA case!?

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For further information

• Email brewert_at_georgetown.edu
• Web Site usclimatechange.com

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Annex Specific Obama-Biden policy
possibilities based on speeches, legislative
sponsorships, and web sites

• 150 billion investment over 10 years
• 4 million jobs
• Basic research double USG budget
• Job training programs
• Clean Technologies Deployment Venture Capital
  Fund (modeled after CIA fund)
• Extend Production Tax Credit

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New Standards

• National Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)
• fuel suppliers reduce carbon emissions from
  their fuels by 10 by 2020
• Federal Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) 25
  of electricity by 2025
• Federal government use of renewable electricity
  sources 30 by 2020

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Energy Efficiency Programs

• Establish national building efficiency goals
• All new buildings carbon-neutral or
  zero-emissions by 2030
• New buildings 50 more efficient over next
  decade
• Existing buildings 25 more efficient over next
  decade

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More on energy efficiency

• Competitive grant program for state and local
  governments that are early adopters of new local
  building codes for energy efficiency
• Federal grants for energy efficiency retrofits on
  existing state and local government buildings and
  for new buildings