ARDEC

1
ARDEC
PROBLEM ANALYSIS TESTING A COURSE BY RONALD
ELBE Presenting JOHN KUHN CONFIGURATION
MANAGEMENT LIFECYCLE INTEGRATION COMPENTENCY
DIRECTORATE NDIA PRESENTATION MAY, 2003
John.F.Kuhn_at_us.army.mil DSN 793-3924 Comm (309)
782-3924
2
DISCLAIMER

• NOT AN OFFICIAL U.S. ARMY POSITION
• CONTENT SOLELY OPINION RESPONSIBILITY
• OF RON ELBE
• SPIN BY JOHN KUHN

Committed to Excellence
2
3
COURSE TOPICS

• SKILLS KNOWLEDGE NEEDED
• TEN STEPS IN PROBLEM ANALYSIS
• IF TESTING IS NEEDED
• TYPICAL SYSTEM TRADE-OFFs
• HELPFUL HINTS FROM THOSE WITH EXPERIENCE

Committed to Excellence
3
4
SKILLS KNOWLEDGE NEEDED

• FIRST PRIORITY LOGIC COMMON SENSE
• DEDUCTIVE REASONING (SHERLOCK HOLMES)
• KEEN OBSERVATION
• UNDERSTANDING OF THE WHOLE
• SYSTEM (WEAPON, AMMO, MOUNT, ETC)
• 8 STEPS IN CYCLING OF WEAPON SYSTEM

Committed to Excellence
4
5
TEN STEPS IN PROBLEM ANALYSIS

• DEFINE PROBLEM
• IDENTIFY ALL POTENTIAL CAUSES
• DETERMINE METHOD(S) OF ANALYSIS
• DETERMINE DATA NEEDED FOR ANALYSIS
• SPECIFY SOURCES / EQUIPMENT NEEDED TO OBTAIN DATA
• OBTAIN DATA
• ANALYZE DATA
• DRAW CONCLUSIONS
• MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS / TAKE
• CORRECTIVE ACTIONS
• X. DOCUMENT ENTIRE ANALYSIS

Committed to Excellence
5
6
DEFINE THE PROBLEM / ISSUE

• LACK OF DEFINITION IS MAJOR FAILURE
• CANT GIVE CORRECT ANSWER TO
• WRONG QUESTION
• BE SPECIFIC

Committed to Excellence
6
7
CONSIDER ALL POSSIBLE CAUSES

• WEAPON
• ESPECIALLY MAGAZINES
• AMMO
• CARTRIDGES
• LINKS, PACKAGING, STRIPPER CLIPS,
• AMMO CANS
• WEAPON / AMMO INTERFACE
• ANCILLARY DEVICES
• BLANK FIRING DEVICES
• TRIPODS / MOUNTS
• FEED CHUTES

Committed to Excellence
7
8
CONSIDER ALL POSSIBLE CAUSES (CONTINUED)

• TEST EQUIPMENT
• MAINTENANCE
• INTERVALS
• EQUIPMENT
• ENVIRONMENT
• STORAGE
• USE
• USER
• MAN-MACHINE INTERFACE
• UNANTICIPATED / UNAUTHORIZED USE
• RANDOM CHANCE
• ? ? ?

Committed to Excellence
8
9
PRIORITIZE POSSIBLE CAUSES

• ELIMINATE THOSE NOT POSSIBLE
• PRIORITIZE / RANK THOSE REMAINING
• BE EFFICIENT WITH RESOURCES
• DO CHEAP, EASY INVESTIGATIONS FIRST
• CONSIDER 2 PHASE TESTING
• PART I QUICK DIRTY
• PART II DETAILED CONTROLLED

Committed to Excellence
9
10
FACTS / DATA / INFO NEEDED

• DETERMINE FACTS / DATA / INFORMATION NEEDED TO
  ISOLATE CAUSE / PROBLEM
• MUST BE ABLE TO ISOLATE EACH POTENTIAL CAUSE ! !
  !
• BE SPECIFIC
• NOT ACCURACY
• AVERAGE EXTREME SPREAD OF 3 10 SHOT
• GROUPS _at_ 100 YARDS
• DOWN TO FORM FORMAT

Committed to Excellence
10
11
FACTS / DATA / INFO SOURCES

• POTENTIAL SOURCES
• ENGINEERING JUDGEMENT COMMON SENSE
• HISTORICAL REFERENCES
• INCLUDING SIMILAR OR OLDER SYSTEMS
• MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS
• MODELING/SIMULATION/STRESS ANALYSIS, ETC.
• FIRING TESTS
• SELECT SOURCE(S) BASED ON
• TIME COST EFFICIENCY
• SURENESS OF DECISION
• BALANCE COST VS RISK / VALUE

Committed to Excellence
11
12
ASSURE THAT TEST ISOLATES POTENTIAL CAUSES

• CONTROLS ! CONTROLS ! CONTROLS !
• PROVIDES DIRECT, REAL-TIME COMPARISONS
• ELIMINATES MANY VARIABLES
• CONTROL GUNS, CONTROL AMMO,
• CONTROL EQUIPMENT
• USE RANDOMNESS TO ISOLATE CAUSE
• ALL TEST EQUIPMENT MUST
• NOT INFLUENCE / MASK TEST RESULTS
• BE SPECIFICALLY IDENTIFIED
• BE INSPECTED / CALIBRATED / CONFORMING
• (IN A GUN TEST, AMMO IS TEST EQUIPMENT
  ! ! !)
• TEST MUST REFLECT ALL FIELDED ASSETS

Committed to Excellence
12
13
ANALYZE THE DATA

• FROM ALL SOURCES
• MUST ISOLATE ALL POSSIBLE CAUSES
• HOW DATA IS ANALYZED IS AS IMPORTANT AS DATA
  ITSELF

Committed to Excellence
13
14
DRAW CONCLUSIONS

• ARE THEY TOTALLY SUPPORTABLE?
• ARE THEY UNBIASED?

Committed to Excellence
14
15
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CORRECTIVE ACTIONS

• CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS
• IF YOUVE DONE THOROUGH WORK, THESE ARE
  SELF-EVIDENT
• CONSIDER LOGISTIC ACQUISITION IMPLICATIONS
  OF ALTERNATIVES

Committed to Excellence
15
16
RECORD IT

• PREPARE FORMAL TECH REPORT
• MAKES ANALYSIS ITS DATA
• PERMANENTLY AVAILABLE
• FAME GLORY FOR YOU
• RECORD ALL PERTINENT DATA / INFO
• MAKES TEST EXACTLY REPEATABLE
• SERVES AS CONTROL FOR FUTURE TESTS
• DTIC
• WWW.DTIC.MIL

Committed to Excellence
16
17
HELPFUL HINTS FROM OLD GUYS

• DEFINE THE PROBLEM BEFORE BEGINNING THE
• ANALYSIS.
• MEASURE DOCUMENT THE SYSTEM BEFORE
• AFTER TEST.
• MANY PROBLEMS ARE CYCLICAL.
• ASK THE OLD GUYS.
• CHECK HISTORICAL REFERENCES
• TEST ENOUGH SYSTEMS TO GET STATISTICALLY
• VALID RESULTS
• BE SUSPICIOUS OF THE SUPPLY SYSTEM
• MULTIPLE VENDORS
• MULTIPLE CONTRACTS
• STANDARDIZATION ACTIONS

Committed to Excellence
17
18
HELPFUL HINTS FROM OLD GUYS

• DONT TRUST INPUT FROM
• CONTRACTORS
• DCAS
• THE FIELD
• DONT RUSH A PROBLEM ANALYSIS. DO IT RIGHT!
• DONT LET CONTRACTOR, MANAGEMENT, OR A
• CONGRESSMAN SKEW YOUR TEST SET-UP OR ANALYSIS
• DONT EXPECT USERS TO UNDERSTAND SYSTEM OR
• EXPLAIN PROBLEM
• YOU WILL NEVER GET ON APGS SCHEDULE (PLAN
  AHEAD)
• LITTLE THINGS (SURFACE FINISH, WORKMANSHIP,
• LUBRICATION, RADII) ARE IMPORTANT

Committed to Excellence
18
19
HELPFUL HINTS FROM OLD GUYS

• SCANNING ELECTRON BEAM MICROSCOPE FOR
• CHEMISTRY LUBRICANTS
• A FIRING TEST SHOULD BE THE LAST RESORT
• CATEGORIES OF FIELD PROBLEMS
• DESIGN RELATED
• QUALITY RELATED
• MAINTENANCE RELATED
• USE / ABUSE RELATED
• ONE HIGH SPEED VIDEO IS BETTER THAN 10,000
  ROUNDS
• FIRED
• ONE TIME-DISPLACEMENT CURVE IS BETTER THAN
  100,000
• ROUNDS FIRED
• FINALIZE TEST PLAN BEFORE FIRING
• DEFINE PASS / FAIL BEFORE FIRING

Committed to Excellence
19