Sociology of Environment

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Sociology of Environment

• Discussion of Global Climate Change
• Monday 11-21-05
• Monday 11-28-05
• Discussion on Limits to Growth

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Happy Thanksgiving!!
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Overview

• Welcome Final Stretch - Week 14
• Apologies for Monday 11-21-05
• News
• Battle Lines NY Acts to Cut Emissions NYT
  11-26-05
• International Meetings on Climate Change and
  Kyoto Protocol in Montreal, CAN US will try to
  Kill the Protocol
• Presentation/ Discussion
• Reaction Paper 2 Global Warming
• Limits to Growth Debate

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Thoughts-Global Climate Change

• On the possibility of Global Climate Change A
  real scientific event?
• Or as critics would say more Chicken Little by
  environmentalists? over exaggerated?
• Or are these not the right questions?

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Thoughts-Global Climate Change

• Example of Chicken Little?
• Keeping Cool on Global Warming
• By JEFF JACOBY
• We should tune out the alarmists. We should keep
  the human effect in perspective. We should
  remember that climate change is natural. Mostly,
  we shouldn't panic.
• Read this article inThe Boston GlobeDecember
  17, 2001 see GCC website

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Thoughts-Global Climate Change

• Better Question?
• How can we/ should approach a long-term problem
  like Climate Change?
• The climate is changing but considerable
  UNCERTAINTY about precise impacts on life on
  earth

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Thoughts-Global Climate Change

• Global Warming Certain it is happening
  uncertain on impacts
• Should we be allowed to Experiment with the
  Planet our collective Future?

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Thoughts-Global Climate Change

• US largest emitter of greenhouse gases 25 of
  worlds emissions
• No Strategy to address global climate change can
  ultimately succeed without substantial and
  permanent reduction by the US

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Thoughts-Global Climate Change

• The US public is the only public internationally
  that has some skepticism about Global Climate
  Change
• Why is that?
• What does that say?

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Thoughts-Global Climate Change

• The Politics of Kyoto Protocol

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The Politics of Kyoto Protocol

• Best Policy Approach
• Should we focus on adaptation?
• i.e. Go with the flow Do what is needed after
  the fact, e.g. sea walls, re-adjust agricultural
  areas
• Or should we focus on mitigation?
• i.e. attempt to stop/ reduce climate change by
  reducing production of greenhouse gases

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Thoughts-Global Climate Change

• If Mitigation
• Binding Agreements?
• Or Voluntary Measures?

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Kyoto Protocol

• Details on the Protocol
• http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

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Kyoto Protocol

• Should the US have signed the treaty?
• What about Greenhouse Gases from developing
  countries like China and India?

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National Academy of Science Report

• "Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's
  atmosphere as a result of human activities,
  causing surface air temperatures and subsurface
  ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in
  fact, rising. The changes observed over the last
  several decades are likely mostly due to human
  activities, but we cannot rule out that some
  significant part of these changes are also a
  reflection of natural variability. Human-induced
  warming and associated sea level rises are
  expected to continue through the 21st century."
  2001

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National Academy of Science Report

• Ari Fleischer Bushs Press Secretary 2001
• "It NAS Report concludes that the Earth is
  warming. But it is inconclusive on why -- whether
  it's man-made causes or whether it's natural
  causes."

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Voluntary Compliance

• Bush Administrations Call for Voluntary
  Compliance fits with conservative ideology
• National Sovereignty vs. International oligations
• Economic Growth vs. Reduced Economic Growth
  fear/ claim
• Free Markets vs. Government Requirements/
  Regulations
• http//www.whitehouse.gov/ceq/global-change.html
• http//www.globalclimate.org
• Global Climate Coalition industry group
• http//www.nationalcenter.org/Kyoto.html
• Conservative Think Tank National Center for
  Policy Analysis

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Voluntary Compliance

• Voluntary Compliance
• Politically easier/ less daunting
• Voluntary Measures reduces at the firm level but
  NOT overall

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Debate over Global Warming

• Reaction to various groups attempting to inform
  or mis-inform the public on this issue
• Is this democracy in action or something else?

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Debate over Global Warming

• Article Defeating Kyoto by Aaron McCright and
  Riley Dunlap 2003
• Role of Conservative Think Tanks 1990-1997
• Major Themes of Attack
• Evidence/ science is Weak
• Beneficial Effects of Warming
• Policies Cure worst than disease

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Debate over Global Warming

• Article Defeating Kyoto by Aaron McCright and
  Riley Dunlap 2003
• Conservative Think Tanks
• Utilized Contrary Scientists
• Own Publication Capabilities
• Avoid Scientific Peer Review Process
• Echo Effect Groups repeating the findings of
  other groups

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Debate over Global Warming

• Over the last decade, the fossil fuel lobby has
  mounted an extremely effective campaign of
  disinformation to persuade the public and
  policymakers that the issue of atmospheric
  warming is still stuck in the limbo of
  uncertainty. That campaign for the longest time
  targeted the science. It the misrepresented the
  economics. And most recently it attacked the
  diplomatic foundation of the climate convention.
  And it has been extraordinarily successful in
  creating a relentless drumbeat of doubt in the
  public mind.
• Ross Gelbspan June 2000 Dispensa Brulle 2003

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Debate over Global Warming

• Media Democracy ICE Campaign
• http//www.prwatch.org/taxonomy/term/105/9
• Third Party Technique
• http//www.prwatch.org/prwissues/1997Q4/warming.ht
  ml

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Next Meeting

• No Class Wednesday 11- 23-05 Turkey Day
• Week 14 LIMITS TO GROWTH
• M 11-28 Limits to Growth Debate
• Readings BK2L Meadows et al. Limits to Growth
  Read Preface, 4, 6, 7, 8 Skim 1,2,3,5 Bring
  book to class

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Introduction
• 1972 Best Seller 9 million copies sold
• Translated into 29 Languages
• Every Chief of State had either read or was
  briefed on the book
• First major use of computer simulations for
  public policy discussions
• Considerable Controversy Arose
• World3 Incredibly complex but overly simplified

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Introduction
• Primary Goal Growth
• Exponential Growth Collapse
• Collective Feedback Loops

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Introduction
• 5 Variables
• Non-Renewable Resources with substitution
• Industrial Output- World GDP
• Human Population
• Food Production
• Pollution Levels
• Variables - interactive
• Go Through Simulations
• Overheads

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Scenarios 1-10
• Scenario 1 Reference Run As is
• Scenario 2 Market Double Resources
• Scenario 3 Technology Pollution Control
• Scenario 4 Technology Land Yield Enhancement
• Scenario 4 Technology Land Erosion Protection
• Scenario 5 Technology Resource Efficiencies
• CONCLUSION?

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Scenarios 1-10
• Scenario 7 Policy Choice Stable Population
• Scenario 8 Policy Choice Stable Economic Output
  per capita
• CONCLUSION?

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Scenarios 1-10
• Scenario 9 Policy Choices PLUS Market and
  Technological Enhancements
• Scenario 10 Policy Choices PLUS Market and
  Technological Enhancements 10 YEARS EARLIER 1982
  vs. 2002
• CONCLUSION?

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Chapter 8 Tools for the Transition to
  Sustainability
• Visioning
• Imaging What You Really Want!!!
• If free to construct ones own life free from
  corporate images??

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Networking
• Non-hierarchical
• Connection among equals
• International information streams

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Truth-Telling
• End of untruths, manipulations, deceptions that
  maintain the power relations of the status quo

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Learning
• Visioning, networking and truth-telling are
  useless if they do not inform ACTION

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Loving
• Love of humanity as a whole
• Love of nature
• Individualism and short-sightedness are the
  greatest problems of our current social systems

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Limits to Growth 300 pages
• Highly technical systems dynamics computer
  models and simulations based on data
• Visioning
• Networking
• Truth-Telling
• Learning
• Loving

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Limits to Growth Debate

• The Stationary State would make fewer demands on
  our environmental resources but much greater
  demands on our moral resources
• Herman Daly, 1971 famous environmental economist

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Policy Choice
• Fixed Goal for Industrial Output

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Policy Choice
• Fixed Goal for Industrial Output
• Model 10 above 2000 World GDP Average

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Policy Choice
• Fixed Goal for Industrial Output
• Model 10 above 2000 World GDP Average
• 2002 World GDP/per capita Average 7,880

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Policy Choice
• 2002 World GDP/per capita Average 7,880
• Costa Rica 8,817
• Russian Federation 8,269
• US 35,746

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Limits to Growth Debate

• Discussion
• Why greater equity?
• Optimistic or Pessimistic?
• Growth vs Development?

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Next Class 11-30-25

• Alternative Futures