Status on PM2.5 Carrying Capacity Development

1
Status on PM2.5 Carrying Capacity Development

• STMPR Advisory Group Meeting
• October 11, 2006
• Bong Kim

2
Overview

• Base and future year emissions v3 draft AQMP
  emissions
• Base year simulation results
• New PM standards
• New PM2.5 guidance document
• Future year simulation results
• Annual average PM2.5
• 24 Hour average PM2.5

3
South Coast Annual Average Emissions, tons/day
4
Error plots of PM2.5
5
New PM Standards

• On September 21, 2006, EPA issued new NAAQS for
  PM
• Annual PM2.5 standard retained at 15 ug/m3
• 24 hour PM2.5 standard strengthened to 35 ug/m3
• Annual PM10 standard revoked
• 24 hour PM10 standard retained at 150 ug/m3

6
New 24 Hour PM2.5 Standard

• EPA will make designations of attainment status
  by November 2009
• Designations will become effective in April 2010
• PM2.5 SIP will be due in April, 2013
• States must meet the standards by April 2015,
  with a possible extension to April 2020

7
New PM2.5 Guidance Document

• EPA released new PM2.5 guidance document on
  September 21, 2006
• EPA recommends the attainment test for PM2.5 the
  Speciated Modeled Attainment Test (SMAT)

8
SMAT for the Annual NAAQS

• Divide observed mass concentrations into 7
  components plus passive mass
• NH4
• NO3
• SO4
• OC
• EC
• Particle bound water
• Other primary inorganic PM
• Blank (0.5 ug/m3)

9
SMAT for the Annual NAAQS

• Step 1 Calculate annual design values for each
  quarter for each site based on 3 year averages
  from 2003-2005 FRM data
• Step 2 Calculate average concentrations of 7
  components for each quarter for each site from
  Mates 3 data
• Water from AIM model or a regression equation
• Step 3 Calculate fractional composition of
  non-blank mass for each component for each
  quarter for each site from Mates 3 data

10
SMAT for the Annual NAAQS

• Step 4 Apply fractional compositions from step
  3 to annual design values from step 1 to
  calculate base year concentrations for each
  component for each quarter for each site
• Step 5 Calculate rrf for each component for
  each quarter for each site based on base and
  future year simulations
• Step 6 Apply rrf to base year concentrations
  from step 4 for each quarter for each site and
  calculate future year water concentrations

11
SMAT for the Annual NAAQS

• Step 7 The 4 quarters are then averaged to get
  a final future year annual average PM2.5
  concentrations for each site and compared to 15.0
  ug/m3

12
Future Year Modeling Results
13
2005 Annual Average FRM PM2.5
ug/m3
Fed. Std.
14
PM2.5 - 2014 Base
ug/m3
Fed. Std.
15
PM2.5 - 2020 Base
ug/m3
Fed. Std.
16
PM2.5 - 2014 Control
ug/m3
Fed. Std.
17
PM2.5 - 2020 Control
ug/m3
Fed. Std.
18
PM2.5 Annual Average Conc.
ug/m3
Fed. Std.
19
PM2.5 Annual Average Conc.
ug/m3
Fed. Std.
20
SMAT for the 24 Hour NAAQS

• Similar to the test for the annual NAAQS
• EPA recommends modeling as many days as feasible
  where observed PM2.5 is greater than 65 ug/m3
• EPA recommends the test focus on the high end of
  the distribution in each quarter (top 25 of
  PM2.5 days) if the sample size for each quarter
  is smaller than about 5 days