POL S 202: Intro to American Politics

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POL S 202 Intro to American Politics

• Public Opinion, Political Socialization
• Week 4 October 25, 2007

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American Politics in the News
Initiatives in the 2007 WA Election R-67 prevent
insurance companies from denying reasonable
health ins claims I-960 Tim Eyman need 2/3
majority to pass new taxes in state legis, among
voters A-4204 require only simple majority for
school levies property tax Prop 1 (RTID)
Sound transit 18 billion, through 2027 not
city Counties King, Sno, Pierce A-8206 rainy
day fund account Gov supports set aside 1 of
the state budget
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Defining Public Opinion

• Public Opinion Citizens attitudes about
  political issues, leaders, institutions, and
  events
• Public Opinion Peoples evaluations and
  understanding of politics in general and their
  views on specific issues of the day
• Political Ideology A cohesive set of beliefs
  that form a general philosophy about the role of
  government

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Defining Public Opinion

• All in all, do you think the United States is
  making progress or losing ground in its efforts
  to establish security and democracy in Iraq?

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Studying Public Opinion

• Want to know what people think about an issue?
  ASK THEM!
• Opinion poll A method of systematically
  questioning a small, selected sample of
  respondents who are deemed representative of the
  total population
• Survey research is a science that involves
  question wording, sample construction, and
  interpreting the results

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Studying Public Opinion

• Survey Research Center at University of Michigan
  is a leading center for studying political
  opinions
• National Election Study, conducted every two
  years since 1948
• Sampling technique must be as random and fair
  as possible. Every individual in the population
  must have an equal chance of being interviewed so
  as to not introduce bias into the result

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Initiative 960 will require a 2/3 majority to
pass any new taxes. Will you vote yes or no?

• Yes on I-960
• No on I-960
• Undecided

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Initiative 960 will save taxpayers in Washington
state hundreds of dollars each year by requiring
a 2/3 majority to pass any new taxes, and will
keep our taxes low. Will you vote yes or no?

• Yes on I-960
• No on I-960
• Undecided

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Conducting Survey Research

• Margin of error For voters in the U.S.
• (about 100 million)
• interviews error
• 10,000 1.0
• 1,500 2.5
• 1,000 3.1
• 500 4.4
• 200 6.9
• 100 9.8

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Conducting Survey Research

• Types of surveys
• In person, door-to-door
• Telephone random digital dial (RDD)
• Telephone listed
• Man on the street (exit poll)
• Online/email
• Mail survey (census)
• Other issues stratifying sample weighting data

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Conducting Survey Research

• Potential bias
• age
• race
• gender
• education
• income
• political party

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Conducting Survey Research

• Who is home during the day?
• Who is more likely to answer the phone?
• Who is more likely to have their number unlisted?
  
• Who is more likely to fill out a mail survey?
• Who is more likely to fill out an online survey?
• Who is more likely to be too busy?
• Question wording should not be leading, should
  not give too much information, should not be
  framed with long introduction, should be careful
  about placement within survey

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Assignment for Tomorrow

• Find an article about a public opinion poll
• Identify the margin of error
• Identify the sample size
• Identify the polling company/sponsor
• When was the poll in the field
• Briefly state the results

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Political Socialization

• Political Socialization How people acquire their
  political attitudes and beliefs
• Agents of influence
• Family
• Education / school system
• Peers / Friends
• Religion
• Economic status
• Political Events
• Elites / Opinion leaders
• The Media

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Race and Public Opinion

• Discrimination against African Americans
• Black respondents 63 Yes
• White respondents 30 Yes
• Blacks receive too many special advantages
• Black respondents 1 agree
• White respondents 21 agree

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Education and Public Opinion

• Women and Men should have equal roles
• Less than HS 45 agree
• High school 72 agree
• College grad 85 agree

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Public Opinion in Washington
Political culture and public opinion in WA has a
long history of anti-establishment
attitudes Populist and progressive reform
movements in WA established support for High
expectations for state government Low approval of
state government More supportive of environmental
protection Less supportive of individual-based
taxes (income) Major divides West/East of Cascades