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Applications of Medium Range To
Seasonal/Interannual Climate Forecasts For Water
Resources Management In the Yakima River Basin of
Washington State Shraddhanand Shukla, Donee
Alexander, Anne Steinemann, Andy Wood
University of Washington
Progress in Monitoring and Prediction Activities
Project Overview

• For Washington State, a model-based hydrologic
  monitoring and prediction system is being
  created, currently offering
• spatial maps of soil moisture and SWE
• basin average conditions for all water resources
  inventory areas (WRIAs)

Hydrologic Model

• State-of-the-art seasonal climate forecasts, such
  as the NOAA CPC seasonal outlooks, offer the
  potential to mitigate drought impacts in
  vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, but these
  information resources are largely untapped by
  water managers and users.
• This study will bridge the gap by working
  directly with users in the transition of NOAA
  climate forecasts, coupled with hydrologic
  assessments, to water resources operations and
  drought management.
• Our research focuses on water management in
  Washington States Yakima River Basin, home to
  the state's most valuable irrigated crops, and on
  state-level drought policy in Washington.
• There are three main goals of the project
• Collaborate with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
  (USBR) to evaluate the uses of streamflow
  forecasts.
• Interact with water users and managers to
  identify the factors that influence the degree of
  adoption of hydrologic forecasts in
  decision-making.
• Explore potential uses of model-based monitoring
  and prediction of hydrologic indicators of
  drought as triggers for management actions.

PROJECT SETTING
Daily update of WRIA basin averages. Current
Water year Precipitation, Temperature, Soil
moisture, SWE, Runoff (cumulative and 5-day
averages) plotted against 1971-2000
climatological data)

• The USBR Yakima Project supports approximately
  464,000 irrigated acres (via four irrigation
  districts -- Roza, Yakima-Tieton, Sunnyside
  Valley and Kittitas -- and the Wapato Division).
• Most of the water in the Yakima River comes from
  snowmelt, and is caught in a series of reservoirs
  to ensure sufficient water supply throughout the
  season.

http//www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/sarp/
Other Products
Other variables
Progress in Forecast User Interaction Activities
Interviews have been conducted with USBR
operators and agricultural water users. Shown
below are the typical operations of water
managers/users in a calendar year.
SWE
Jan--------Feb-------Mar-------Apr--------May--
------Jun--------Jul--------Aug--------Sep--------
Oct--------Nov--------Dec--
Initial Monthly Water Forecast Issued
------------------------------ Water Deliveries
----------------------------------
Reservoir Operations For Fall Crop
Reservoir Drawdowns For Flood Control
Summer Water Allocations Decided
Reservoir Refill
IN development Cumulative runoff and precip
over varying periods (e.g., 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-months
and longer) Nowcast system at 1/16 deg
resolution Weekly update of time-series plots
of Drought indexes (e.g. PDSI, PHDI etcs)
Fields Prepped Seed Bought
Repairs / Preparations for irrigation season
In good years, Fall Crop
In drought years, decisions about selling water
fallowing fields
------------------------------Irrigation
Season----------------------------------
Future Plans

• Implement streamflow forecasting (focusing on
  Yakima R. Basin), using a VIC 1/16th degree model
• Develop drought onset and recovery forecasts
  using traditional (e.g., PDSI) and advanced
  drought indices
• Provide 15-day spatial flood risk forecasts
  based on dynamic model reforecasts from NCEP/ESRL
  
• Work with water managers and users to integrate
  climate and hydrologic forecast information into
  decision-making in the Yakima River basin
• Funding has been provided by the NOAA Sector
  Applications Research Program (SARP).

Water users have expressed the following
perspectives on climate forecasts

• Reliable hydrologic forecasts and other
  predictive tools are needed earlier in the year.
• More detailed forecasts are needed, with
  explanations of skill, accuracy, and uncertainty
  that are meaningful to users.
• Users are willing to work with forecasters to
  develop products that are understandable, easily
  interpreted, and useful in their decision-making
  processes.

Acknowledgements