Factors Affecting Demand for Food

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Factors Affecting Demand for Food

• Text extracted from
• The World Food Problem
• Leathers Foster, 2004

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Age Structure

• Population Pyramids
• indicate age structure
• Developing countries
• have much higher percentage of young people
• Developed countries
• have even distribution of age groups

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Momentum

• Changes in age structure affect population for
  decades
• Example Baby Boom
• If a developing country achieves replacement
  fertility rates for adults
• Population growth continues for decades
• Because there are more children

Baby boom age pyramid
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Age structure for China (1990)
Great Leap Forward Famine, 1959-1960
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Dependency Ratios

• Ratio of dependents to working adults
• Burden of dependent children per adult greater in
  developing country
• Developed nation ex
• 0.21 children/adult
• Developing nation ex
• .77 chlidren/adult

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Age Structure determines future calorie needs

• Calorie needs are different at different ages
• Age structure allows prediction of future calorie
  needs
• as current population grows up
• Need for food can grow faster than the population
  
• if more adults than children
• Adults require more food

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Other factors affecting future food needs

• Number of Pregnant women
• Amount of physical activity
• Height of population
• indicates nutrition level
• Population demand/person more meat
• Huge synergistic effect

Sierra Leone 8 year old girl
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More Meat

• As incomes rise, people eat more meat
• less cereals
• Meat production requires plant calories
• Average 61 conversion ratio
• Developing countries eat 4,224 Calories from
  plants
• 2,255 directly from plants
• Plus 315 meat calories (12.5)
• Requires 1,969 plant calories to produce meat

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More Meat

• If people in developing countries ate 15 meat
• Would increase total plant calories required
• to 4,591/person
• Equivalent increase in demand to 8.7 increase in
  population

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More Meat

• If people in developing nations ate amount of
  meat eaten in developed nations (27 calories)
• Would require 6,200 plant-derived calories
• 47 increase

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Optimistic Future Scenario Next 50 yrs

• Per capita income increases
• Population growth of 50
• Fertility declines
• Food supplies keep pace with demand
• Life expectancy increases
• Average height increases
• Age structure changes toward fewer children
• Food demand grows by 101

Morocco middle income country
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Same impact if pessimistic future

• Self-Correction on impact with lower quality of
  life
• If prosperity declines
• Food supply doesnt keep up with demand
• Population grows more rapidly
• Less decline in fertility rates
• But need less food because
• Age structure more children
• Average height less change
• Calories per capita low
• Undernutrition
• Dietary diversification small
• Impact 98 growth in food demand

Sierra Leone mother
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