Political Selection

1
Political Selection

• Elections and Voting Behavior

2
Todays Lecture

• Elections defined
• Who Votes?
• How do Americans Vote?
• Presidential Elections The Electoral College
• Congressional Elections The Incumbency Advantage

3
Election Basics

• Three types of elections
• Party nominations
• General elections for officeholders
• Referenda and Initiatives vote on specific
  policies
• Referendum State voters approve or disapprove
  proposed legislation put forth by government.
• Often used for constitutional amendments.
• Initiative legislation proposed by citizens
  (interest groups or policy entrepreneurs) to be
  voted on, up or down.

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Deciding to Vote

• U.S. typically has low voter turnouts.
• Some argue it is rational to not vote.
• Anthony Downs
• Political Efficacy The belief that ones
  political participation really matters.
• Civic Duty The belief the in order to support
  democratic government, a citizen should always
  vote.

5
Deciding to Vote

• Declining Voter Turnout

6
Registering to Vote

• Voter Registration A system adopted by the
  states that requires voters to register well in
  advance of the election day.
• Each state has different registration laws
• Could affect electoral outcomes
• Motor Voter Act Requires states to permit people
  to register to vote when they apply for their
  drivers license.

7
Who Votes?

• Education More education more likely to vote.
  Most important factor.
• Age Older more likely to go vote.
• Race Caucasian more likely to go vote. BUT,
  other ethnicities are higher with comparable
  education.
• Gender Female more likely to go vote.

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Who Votes? (continued)

• Marital Status Married more likely to go vote.
• Mobility Dont move more likely to go vote.
• Union Membership Union member more likely to
  go vote.
• Traits are cumulative- possessing several adds up.

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Who votes?

• Turnout in 2004

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How Americans Vote

• Party Identification
• People generally vote for a party they agree
  with.
• Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed
  the importance of party.
• Several will vote for the individualcharacteristi
  cs of each candidate are more important than
  party.
• Party identification still best predictor of vote
  choice

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Why Party Identification?

• Party acts as a mental short cut
• Dont need to know everything about a candidate
  because you know what a Democrat or Republican
  stands for
• The lower the cost to deciding, means more likely
  to vote
• Party acts as a perceptual screen
• You see your party favorably

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Party Identification and voting

• A strong psychological attachment
• Not unlike being loyal to a sports team
• You want your team to win, so you participate
  you do your part
• If you strongly identify with a party, you are
  more likely to vote

13
Do people policy vote?

• Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and
  where the candidates stand on policy issues
• Policy voting may occur if
• Voters know where they and the candidates stand
  on issues and see differences between candidates
• Unlikely to occur because
• Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.
• Media tend to focus on the horse race not
  issues.
• Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand
  in the party primaries increasing chances for
  policy voting.

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Presidential Elections

• Money mattersbut not as much as in the primaries
• Both candidates have about the same amount
• Federal matching funds after convention
• Incumbency advantage?
• If no war and the economy is strong
• Only the popular voteby statematters

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The Electoral College

• Electoral College actually elects the
  PresidentFounders did not want the masses to
  directly elect the president.
• State-by-state presidential election
• States choose the electors
• Winner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis to
  more populated states

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The Electoral College

• Each state has as many votes as it does
  Representatives and Senators.
• Winner of popular vote typically gets all the
  Electoral College votes for that state
• Electors meet in December, votes are reported by
  the vice president in January
• If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes), the
  House of Representatives votes for president,
  with each state casting one vote.

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Congressional Elections

• Members of Congress primary goal is to win
  reelection (David Mayhew)
• Every member of the House of Representatives runs
  for reelection every two years
• One third of the Senate is up for reelection
  every two years
• Off presidential election year are termed
  congressional or midterm elections

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Congressional Elections

• Incumbents Those already holding office,
  typically win elections.

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Congressional Elections

• Weak Opponents
• Most opponents are inexperienced in politics,
  unorganized, and underfunded.
• Party Identification Most members represent the
  majority party in their district.
• Defeating Incumbents
• Scandals or other complications in office weaken
  the incumbency advantage.
• A legislator may be drawn out of their
  district.
• They may face massive voter retaliation.

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Congressional Elections

• Money
• Without an incumbent and her advantage, open
  seats are expensive.
• But spending lots of money does not guarantee a
  win, especially in senatorial contests.

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Term Limits?

• Incumbency advantage means that challengers have
  little chance to win
• Can term limits encourage turnover and inspire
  more change? Perhaps.
• Public tends to support term limits, except when
  applied to their own representative
• Most disapprove of Congress, even though they
  typically approve of their member.

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How do Elections Affect Democracy and Government?

• Voters can steer government only when there are
  noticeable policy differences between the
  candidates.
• Candidates who vow to continue popular policies
  are more likely to win elections.
• For this reason, the government expands to fill
  the needs of the voters.
• Promises made to secure victory often requires
  spending once in office
• Reelection incentive means legislators will act
  to fulfill campaign promises

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Whats Important?

• Party Identification and vote choice
• Voter turnout
• The Electoral College elects the President
• Incumbency advantage best explains congressional
  elections