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Political Selection

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... the states that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day. ... State-by-state presidential election. States choose the electors ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Political Selection


1
Political Selection
  • Elections and Voting Behavior

2
Todays Lecture
  • Elections defined
  • Who Votes?
  • How do Americans Vote?
  • Presidential Elections The Electoral College
  • Congressional Elections The Incumbency Advantage

3
Election Basics
  • Three types of elections
  • Party nominations
  • General elections for officeholders
  • Referenda and Initiatives vote on specific
    policies
  • Referendum State voters approve or disapprove
    proposed legislation put forth by government.
  • Often used for constitutional amendments.
  • Initiative legislation proposed by citizens
    (interest groups or policy entrepreneurs) to be
    voted on, up or down.

4
Deciding to Vote
  • U.S. typically has low voter turnouts.
  • Some argue it is rational to not vote.
  • Anthony Downs
  • Political Efficacy The belief that ones
    political participation really matters.
  • Civic Duty The belief the in order to support
    democratic government, a citizen should always
    vote.

5
Deciding to Vote
  • Declining Voter Turnout

6
Registering to Vote
  • Voter Registration A system adopted by the
    states that requires voters to register well in
    advance of the election day.
  • Each state has different registration laws
  • Could affect electoral outcomes
  • Motor Voter Act Requires states to permit people
    to register to vote when they apply for their
    drivers license.

7
Who Votes?
  • Education More education more likely to vote.
    Most important factor.
  • Age Older more likely to go vote.
  • Race Caucasian more likely to go vote. BUT,
    other ethnicities are higher with comparable
    education.
  • Gender Female more likely to go vote.

8
Who Votes? (continued)
  • Marital Status Married more likely to go vote.
  • Mobility Dont move more likely to go vote.
  • Union Membership Union member more likely to
    go vote.
  • Traits are cumulative- possessing several adds up.

9
Who votes?
  • Turnout in 2004

10
How Americans Vote
  • Party Identification
  • People generally vote for a party they agree
    with.
  • Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed
    the importance of party.
  • Several will vote for the individualcharacteristi
    cs of each candidate are more important than
    party.
  • Party identification still best predictor of vote
    choice

11
Why Party Identification?
  • Party acts as a mental short cut
  • Dont need to know everything about a candidate
    because you know what a Democrat or Republican
    stands for
  • The lower the cost to deciding, means more likely
    to vote
  • Party acts as a perceptual screen
  • You see your party favorably

12
Party Identification and voting
  • A strong psychological attachment
  • Not unlike being loyal to a sports team
  • You want your team to win, so you participate
    you do your part
  • If you strongly identify with a party, you are
    more likely to vote

13
Do people policy vote?
  • Basing your vote choice on issue preferences and
    where the candidates stand on policy issues
  • Policy voting may occur if
  • Voters know where they and the candidates stand
    on issues and see differences between candidates
  • Unlikely to occur because
  • Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues.
  • Media tend to focus on the horse race not
    issues.
  • Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand
    in the party primaries increasing chances for
    policy voting.

14
Presidential Elections
  • Money mattersbut not as much as in the primaries
  • Both candidates have about the same amount
  • Federal matching funds after convention
  • Incumbency advantage?
  • If no war and the economy is strong
  • Only the popular voteby statematters

15
The Electoral College
  • Electoral College actually elects the
    PresidentFounders did not want the masses to
    directly elect the president.
  • State-by-state presidential election
  • States choose the electors
  • Winner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis to
    more populated states

16
The Electoral College
  • Each state has as many votes as it does
    Representatives and Senators.
  • Winner of popular vote typically gets all the
    Electoral College votes for that state
  • Electors meet in December, votes are reported by
    the vice president in January
  • If no candidate gets a majority (270 votes), the
    House of Representatives votes for president,
    with each state casting one vote.

17
Congressional Elections
  • Members of Congress primary goal is to win
    reelection (David Mayhew)
  • Every member of the House of Representatives runs
    for reelection every two years
  • One third of the Senate is up for reelection
    every two years
  • Off presidential election year are termed
    congressional or midterm elections

18
Congressional Elections
  • Incumbents Those already holding office,
    typically win elections.

19
Congressional Elections
  • Weak Opponents
  • Most opponents are inexperienced in politics,
    unorganized, and underfunded.
  • Party Identification Most members represent the
    majority party in their district.
  • Defeating Incumbents
  • Scandals or other complications in office weaken
    the incumbency advantage.
  • A legislator may be drawn out of their
    district.
  • They may face massive voter retaliation.

20
Congressional Elections
  • Money
  • Without an incumbent and her advantage, open
    seats are expensive.
  • But spending lots of money does not guarantee a
    win, especially in senatorial contests.

21
Term Limits?
  • Incumbency advantage means that challengers have
    little chance to win
  • Can term limits encourage turnover and inspire
    more change? Perhaps.
  • Public tends to support term limits, except when
    applied to their own representative
  • Most disapprove of Congress, even though they
    typically approve of their member.

22
How do Elections Affect Democracy and Government?
  • Voters can steer government only when there are
    noticeable policy differences between the
    candidates.
  • Candidates who vow to continue popular policies
    are more likely to win elections.
  • For this reason, the government expands to fill
    the needs of the voters.
  • Promises made to secure victory often requires
    spending once in office
  • Reelection incentive means legislators will act
    to fulfill campaign promises

23
Whats Important?
  • Party Identification and vote choice
  • Voter turnout
  • The Electoral College elects the President
  • Incumbency advantage best explains congressional
    elections
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