PS 12 factoids

1
PS 12 factoids

• In the 1970 Florida senate race, candidate Lawton
  Chiles walked the entire length of the state to
  talk to voters.
• In the 1972 election for Iowas 5th House
  district, candidate Tom Harkin worked one
  blue-collar job a day.

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American CampaignsPS 12

• David Weaver
• February 23, 2009

3
Question of the day How has political
campaigning changed in the 20th century and why
does it matter?

• Why care about American campaigns?
• Looking at the numbers AKA follow the money
• The old context for campaigns Parties
• The new structure of campaigns Media and
  candidates at the center
• Hyper candidate-centered campaigns(?)

4
Why care?

• Election Process in which votes are cast,
  counted, and a winner declared
• Campaign Process in which one or more candidates
  running for elected office attempt to influence
  citizens and political elites by traveling the
  country, speaking through the media, and rallying
  their respective supporters

5
Why care?

• Presidents formal, informal powers
• Congress Agenda-powers, incumbency
• Judiciary Shaped by above

6
Election or campaign?

• Campaign ? election
• Longevity of elections
• Some exciting days e.g., Super Tuesday
• Three phases
• Primary
• Summer
• Early fall

7

• Why care about American campaigns?
• Looking at the numbers AKA follow the money
• Changing nature of American campaigns
• Candidate-centered campaigns
• Hyper candidate-centered campaigns(?)

8
Follow the money!

• Congressional races
• Incumbents
• Challengers
• Money no guarantee of success
• Favorable wind for candidate 1 million 50

9
Who has ?

• Political Action Committee (PAC) Private group
  that raises and distributes funds for use in
  election campaigns.
• 4,500 registered with Federal Election Commission
  (FEC)
• Max 5,000 each candidate
• Individuals 2,300 each
• Federal Elections Campaign Act (1971)

10
Source Gary Jacobson. (2008). Politics of
Congressional Elections (7th ed).
11
Source Gary Jacobson. (2008). Politics of
Congressional Elections (7th ed).
12
Some PAC considerations

• Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (2002)
• Not purely ideological in behavior
• Considerably more indirectly

13
527/501c groups

• Federal Election Campaign Act limits on direct
  contributions
• 527 groups independently financed, do not provide
  direct funds to candidates
• E.g., Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, 2004
• How do you know whos speaking to you?

14

• Why care about American campaigns?
• Looking at the numbers AKA follow the money
• Changing nature of American campaigns
• Candidate-centered campaigns
• Hyper candidate-centered campaigns(?)

15
The old campaign context

• Political party organized groups that attempt to
  influence the government by electing their
  members to important government offices.

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The old campaign context (contd)

• 1800s Partisan journalism
• Power of local political party
• Party ballots

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Election of 1864
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• Why care about American campaigns?
• Looking at the numbers AKA follow the money
• Changing nature of American campaigns
• Candidate-centered campaigns
• Hyper candidate-centered campaigns(?)

19
Why shift to candidates?

• Australian ballot (1890-1910)
• Rise of direct primaries
• Dealignment of parties
• Gallup polls One should vote for candidate, not
  party
• 1956 74
• 1968 88

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Decline of party predictability

• Citizen vote for president, vote for House

- 1900-1910 .85
- 1940s .65
- 1980s .14
21
Candidate creativity

• Lawton Chiles
• 1970 Fla. Senate race
• Tom Harkin
• 1972 Iowa 5th District

22
How effective is it?

• Door-to-door 14 1
• Leaflets (partisan) 66 1
• Direct mail, non-base partisans 600 1

23
Modern TV advertising

• Eisenhower political film (1952)
• Willie Horton ad (1988)
• Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (2004)

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Going negative

• Learn about candidate abilities, ideas, issue
  positions
• Stronger opinions on issues (learning)
• Reinforce partisan orientations
• - Better educated, aware only benefit
• - Political disenchantment

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Abraham Lincolns bad day
Jokester Knave Lunatic
Murderer Outlaw Perjurer
Robber Savage
Traitor Usurper Vulgar
Weakling

• Ape
• Buffoon
• Coward
• Drunkard
• Execrable
• Fiend
• Ghoul
• Hopeless
• Ignoramus

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• Why care about American campaigns?
• Looking at the numbers AKA follow the money
• Changing nature of American campaigns
• Candidate-centered campaigns
• Hyper candidate-centered campaigns(?)

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Candidate characteristics

• Decisive/strong leader
• Honest/trustworthy
• Vigorous
• Inspiring
• Knowledgeable
• Reckless

• Steady
• Experienced
• Out-of-touch
• Arrogant
• Optimistic

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The talk show circuit

• John McCain on The Daily Show (2008)
• Barack Obama on Ellen (2008)