Troubled Transitions: Partial Democracy in Russia

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Troubled Transitions Partial Democracy in Russia
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Spring Term Class Test

• NEXT Wednesday
• Here
• 45 minutes duration
• No dictionaries etc.
• NB There will be no lecture on that day.
• NB Cheating will result in a mark of zero!

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Aims

• To identify the transition context of Russia
• to characterize the new political system
• to explain why transition was more difficult than
  in Central Europe

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The Context

• a state of triple transition building
  democracy, capitalism and statehood
• emerged from the failed Soviet federation
• no previous history of statehood
• the centre of empire, then of communism

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Russia the problem of stateness and identity

• humiliating loss of Great Power status
• Not a nation-state
• still a large multi-national federation
• about 100 ethnic groups
• about 150m people
• many Russians now live in neighbouring states
• 14 different neighbours

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Russia her neighbours
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How is it organised?

• Almost 90 ethnic republics and non-ethnic
  (Russian) regions
• republics are c. 15 of the population, c. 29 of
  the territory
• most are mixed
• despite ethnic base, some have more Russians
• republics regions have different relations with
  the centre

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Federal subjects

• 21 Republics (ethnic)
• 48 Oblasts (provinces)
• 7 Krais (territories)
• 1 autonomous (jewish) oblast
• 7 autonomous okrugs (districts ethnic, more
  independence than oblasts, less than republics)
• 2 federal cities (Moscow/St. Petersburg)
• Grouped into 7 federal districts

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Asymmetric federalism

• Bilateral agreements with Moscow
• Republican Constitutions may contradict federal
  Constitution
• often ignored presidential decrees, especially
  under Yeltsin
• very different types of sub-political system
  from dictatorship to democracy
• Chechenia/Chechnya still not reconciled

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Chechenia

• History of conquest and resistance since 18th
  century
• Chechens suffered mass deportation under Stalin
  (1944)
• returned to North Caucasus under Khrushchev
• always distinctive
• declared independence September 1991
• de facto independence but not de jure
• centre refused to permit secession
• no international recognition

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Civil War

• Army invaded November 1991 but withdrew
• Chechens renewed declaration of independence 1993
• Russian military invasion First Chechen War
  1994-1996
• Grozny razed
• belief in quick victory proved false
• huge losses on both sides

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Civil War

• conscripts could not defeat guerrillas
• growing unpopularity as presidential election
  approached

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Second Chechen War

• Treaty brokered 1996 was not honoured
• Putin determined to regain control
• declared victory and direct rule from 2000
• hollow victory
• Moscow theatre crisis October 2002
• Beslan siege September 2004
• some spill over into neighbouring republics

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Claimed as success

• Russian candidates won elections of 2003 2005
• Resistance leader liquidated March 2005
• Pro-Russian clan in charge
• victory against international terrorism
• but resistance continues
• challenging integrity of the state

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Political Power

• No decisive break with old system
• no election after independence
• Yeltsin elected June 1991 (-1999)
• Parliament elected 1990 (Soviet republican
  elections) still dominated by communists
• most of new leadership came from the nomenklatura
• President and Parliament quarrelled over new
  Constitution

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Dominance of Presidency

• September 1993 crisis
• Yeltsin dissolved Parliament (illegal)
• Many deputies refused to leave
• street protests followed
• military resolution
• troops stormed Parliament
• state of emergency declared
• CPSU formally banned

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1993 Constitution

• Written by Yeltsin
• confirmed by controversial referendum 12/93
• hard to amend
• very strong president (super-presidentialism)
• weak Parliament
• some law-making powers
• but does not choose government

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Hindered democratization

• Too much central power but no strategy under
  Yeltsin
• power dominated by oligarchs and close advisers
• owed debt to military
• weak Parliament has little say
• government chosen by President
• Federalism not part of a system of checks and
  balances

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Election process questionable

• Weak political parties
• little power after election
• few resources
• access to media dominated by pro-presidential
  forces
• dirty campaigns against opposition
• only 2 parties have continuous presence
• Communists
• nationalists (Zhirinovsky)

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Putins Presidency (2000-08)

• Stress on strong state
• reassertion of control of republics/regions
• Deal with oligarchs
• growing importance of security services
• growing control of media
• interference with judiciary
• serious human rights abuses

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Putin and Medvedev

• Putin could not immediately stand for a 3rd term
  as president
• Medvedev former chief of Putins presidential
  staff
• Never held elective office before 2008
• Selected by Putin as his successor
• Appointed Putin as his PM
• More liberal policies ???

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Conclusion

• complex transformation of complex state
• Transition to where?
• Partial democracy (perhaps)
• Strong authoritarian features

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Conclusion

• Presidency is crucial
• Popular alienation is acute
• Ineffective vehicles of representation
• weak parties
• weak interest groups
• Future is uncertain