Presentation for National Governors

1
Presentation for National Governors Association

• January 26, 2001
• John Cook
• Director, Petroleum Division
• Energy Information Administration

2
WTI Crude Oil Price Base Case and 95 Confidence
Interval
Projections
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
3
Real and Nominal Crude Oil Prices
Source Energy Information Administration
4
OPEC Crude Oil Production 1999-2001
Projections
History
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
5
Supply/Demand Forecasts Begin to Show Stock
Rebuilding
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
6
Total OECD Oil Stocks
Total includes commercial and government stocks.
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
7
Fundamentals Explain High Prices
Source EIA and OECD
8
U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
9
U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
10
Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East
Coast Winter Supply
Source Energy Information Administration
11
Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
12
U.S. Total Gasoline Inventory Outlook
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
13
Retail Motor Gasoline Prices
Regular self-service
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
14
U.S. Propane Total Stocks
Source Energy Information Administration
15
Average Weekly Propane Spot Prices

• Source Reuters and Oil Price Information Service

16
Retail Propane Prices
Source EIA/State Heating Oil and Propane Program
17
U.S. Natural Gas - Working Gas in Underground
Storage
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, January 2001.
18
Current Natural Gas Spot Prices Well Above the
Recent Price Range
19
Natural Gas Spot Prices Base Case and 95
Confidence Interval
Sources History Natural Gas Week Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2001.