Vulnerability and adaptation: implications for research and policy

1
Vulnerability and adaptation implications for
research and policy

• Alistair Woodward
• Wellington School of Medicine
• University of Otago
• Monday 29th September 2003

2
Vulnerability

• the degree to which individuals and systems are
  susceptible to the adverse effects of climate
  change
• a function of
• - exposure
• - sensitivity (dose response)
• - adaptive capacity
• (WHO/Health Canada/UNEP)

3
Changes in river runoff from the present day to
the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
University of Southampton
4
Vulnerability to heat-related mortality
education and race modify effect of heat, seven
US cities 1986 - 1993
29 degree apparent temperature compared with 15
degrees
ONeill et al, AJE 20031571074
5
(No Transcript)
6
Guardian Weekly August 25, 2003
7
Implications for research

• 1. Research is part of adaptation
• 2. Current responses to climate variability
  provide a starting point
• 3. Multiple points of view make a richer picture

8
Enteric infections in New Zealand

• High rates
• Sources of infection not well understood
• Climate change may boost growth and transmission
  of pathogens
• Present state of knowledge limits opportunities
  for adaptation

9
(No Transcript)
10
Sources of campylobacter

• Case control studies - association with some
  foods (chicken)
• Ecological studies - marked international
  variations not explained by food choices
• Other potential sources include drinking and
  bathing water

11
(No Transcript)
12
Climate change scenarios for NZ

• Rising temperatures (modest regional variation)
• Altered rainfall (considerable variation)
• More extreme events

13
Implications for research

• 1. Research is part of adaptation
• 2. Current responses to climate variability
  provide a starting point
• 3. Multiple points of view make a richer picture

14
Variations in heat sensitivity - biological,
physical, social, behavioural??
Temperature - mortality risk functions for 11 US
cities 1973 - 1994 (Curriero et al 2002)
15
Big seasonal variations in mortality may indicate
vulnerability to climatic influences on health
16
Between 2000 and 2040, proportion of NZ
population over 80 will increase by 250
17
Implications for research

• 1. Research is part of adaptation
• 2. Current responses to climate variability
  provide a starting point
• 3. Multiple points of view make a richer picture

18
Heat-related deaths, maximum temperature (Tmax)
and heat index (HI) Chicago, July 11-25, 1995. As
reported by the Office of the Medical Examiner.
19
Heat-Related Deaths during the July 1995 Heat
Wave in Chicago. Semenza, JC et al. NEJM 1996
335 84-90
we interviewed 339 relatives, neighbors, or
friends of those who died and 339 controls
matched to the case subjects according to
neighborhood and age
those at greatest risk of dying from the heat
were people with medical illnesses who were
socially isolated and did not have access to air
conditioning. In future heat emergencies, interven
tions directed to such persons should reduce
deaths related to the heat.
20
Questions unanswered - these risk factors did
not apply in all neighbourhoods. Why? - what
caused these risk factors (eg living alone)?
21
Race, place and vulnerability two neighbourhoods
(from Klinenberg, 2002)
22
How qualities of place influence risk of heat
wave death

• living alone matters more where there is low
  population density, abandoned spaces, degraded
  infrastructure, family dispersion
• social contact more likely where there is
  residential concentration, busy streets, heavy
  commercial activity relatively low crime

23
Famine in India, 1877
24
El Nino events of similar strength 100 years
apart effects on health differed enormously
25
Famine in relation to food production, India
1875-1878
mid 1876 - monsoon fails, drought begins in SW
India
late 1876 - price of food rises steeply,
migrations begin
mid 1877 - famine deaths begin total between
6-10 million
1877 RECORD GRAIN EXPORTS TO UK
26
El Nino and hunger the case of India
1876-8 Mike Davis. Late Victorian Holocausts.
The Making of the Third World. Spectre 2000
27
Central India 1860 - 1890 what political and
economic factors made mass hunger more likely?

• Aggressive promotion of wheat (for export)
  instead of millet and gram (for local
  consumption)
• Production subsidised by destructive soil mining
  and high levels of household debt
• Community-controlled reserves replaced by remote
  stockpiles with no moral or regulatory restraint
  on speculation
• Neglect of public works (irrigation especially)

28
Implications for policy

• 1. Equity - those most vulnerable to the effects
  of climate change are not the biggest
  climate-disturbers
• 2. Framing - vulnerability adaptation should be
  empowering not undermining

29
From R Moss, Batelle
30
Pacific perspectives on vulnerability and
adaptation, Apia 2001

• 1. Possible risks of a focus on vulnerability
• - reinforcing negative stereotypes
• - victim-blaming
• - neglect of current needs
• 2. Another way of framing the issue building
  resilience instead of anticipating disaster

31
Poverty and climate change. Reducing the
vulnerability of the poor. Report to COP8, 2002

• Adapting to climate change is part of sustainable
  development
• Challenge is to understand the additional
  vulnerability due to climate change, and
  re-orient current practice
• Mainstreaming requires changes in existing
  institutions, policies and infrastructure design

32
Conclusions

• 1. Climate change has begun, more is on the way
• 2. It makes sense to take preventive actions
  early rather than late
• 3. Climate change is more than climate
  variability, but we can learn a good deal from
  current adaptations (and maladaptations)