Regional Demographic Shifts that Affect Community Viability

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Regional Demographic Shifts thatAffect Community
Viability
Eighth Annual International Legislators Forum
Bismarck, ND June 16-18, 2008

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

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Presentation Objective
1. Review regional population movement
2. Discuss implications for labor force
3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on
community viability
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Population Change for MN, ND,SD, 1992-2020
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Manitoba Population
Source Manitoba Bureau of Statistics and
Statistics Canada
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A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data)
85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-4
9 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-
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Female
Male
Population (in millions)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base.
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A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020
85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-4
9 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-
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Female
Male
Population (in millions)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base.
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Baby Boomers enter system 1.825 million/yr or
5,000 a day (on average)
Baby Boomers enter age 85
Source Older Americans 2004
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Manitobas Age GroupsPercent Change 2006 to 2016
44.4
32.5
Source Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
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Presentation Objective
1. Review regional population movement
2. Discuss implications for labor force
3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on
community viability
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Change in North Dakotas Labor Force by Age 1970
to 2020
Note The change in labor force participation was
calculated for 2010, 2015, and 2020 by applying
the 2006 ACS labor force participation rates to
the population projections. Sources - U.S. Census
Bureau 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census 2006
ACS. North Dakota State Data Center North
Dakota Population Projections by Age and Gender
2010, 2015, 2020
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North Dakotas Labor Force Participation Rates by
Age 1980 to 2006
Sources - U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990 and 2000
Census 2006 ACS
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Manitoba Labour Force Growth
2006 to 2017 67,400
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Presentation Objective
1. Review regional population movement
2. Discuss implications for labor force
3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on
community viability
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MN, ND, and SD Residents who have Moved in Past
Year by Age, 2006
Total Movers by State
14.7
17.6
17.0
Universe Persons 1 year and older Source U.S.
Census Bureau, 2006 ACS, Table B07001.
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MN, ND, and SD Residents who have Moved in Past
Year by Educational Attainment
Universe Persons 25 years and older Source U.S.
Census Bureau, 2006 ACS, Table B07009
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MN, ND, and SD Residents who have Moved in Past
Year by Individual Income
Universe Persons 15 years and older Source U.S.
Census Bureau, 2006 ACS, Table B07010
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Why did you move to your current community?
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What is your primary reason for staying in your
community?
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Why do you think about leaving?
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Reason for Staying by Likelihood of Staying
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Will those under 30 years be here in 5 years?
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Manitoba PopulationWith and Without
International Immigration
Source Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
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Recent Immigrant PopulationPercent Share of
Manitoba
2026
2006
4.7
27.4
Source Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
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Demographic Presentation 2008

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.edu
• Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc