WP3%20

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WP3 Alternative Scenarios of GrowthTrends in
Demography, Economy and Trade

• D. Tsamboulas
• External Consultant

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Socio-economic framework

• Based on existing studies and data available
  concerned the economic and social characteristics
  of each country,the socio-economic framework of
  today was outlined.
• TINA Final report
• SCENARIOS Final report
• STAC-TEN Final report
• REBIS Final report
• TIRS Final report
• CODE-TEN Deliverables 4 8
• WORLDBANK DATABASE
• UNECE WEBSITE

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Table 1 Population, GDP, Exports-Imports (in
2003)
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Basic assumptions for Socio-economic scenarios

• 2000 as the base year
• data from 1995-2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 were
  employed to establish the trends
• where projections were available they were used
• approach to trend analysis in forecasting
  involves the use of growth curves

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Country groups for forecasting
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Demography

• Demography is very much influenced by natural
  birth and lately by external migration.
• Contribution of migration to demographic growth
  in Group 1 is close to 75.
• In Group 2, for some years, since 1993, there has
  been a demographic decrease.
• The demographic evolutions between countries and
  within countries show indeed high contrasts
  inside Group 1 countries and among the rest.
• trend analysis in demography forecasting involved
  the use of growth curves

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Table 2 Population projections for Group 1
countries
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Table 3 Population projections for Group 2
countries
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Table 4 Population projections for Group 3
countries
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Economy

• For Group 1, forecasts do exist for the year
  2020.
• For the rest, extrapolations to the future years
  (up to 2020) are made
• Assuming that growth rates in the countries of
  Group 2 and 3, will gradually converge with
  average growth rates in countries of Group 1.
• However, it is assumed that they are always
  higher than the growth rates in Group 1.

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Table 5 GDP projections for the Group 1 countries
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Table 6 GDP projections for the Group 2 countries
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Table 7 GDP projections for the Group 3 countries
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Foreign trade

• For Group 1
• a falling share of primary goods and bulk
  products,
• a decreasing share of intermediate goods,
• a rapidly increasing share of the high value
  goods.
• For Group 2 similar rates of increase for imports
  and exports as with countries of Group 1.
• more detailed geographic analysis will be
  necessary to investigate the potential growth of
  trade between neighboring countries in the Baltic
  areas, the Central Europe area, the Black sea
  area and the Balkans.
• The general trend in countries of Group 3 will
  follow the trend of Group 2.

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Table 8 Exports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 1 countries
Table 9 Imports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 1 countries
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Table 10 Exports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 2 countries
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Table 11 Imports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 2 countries
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Table 12 Exports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 3 countries
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Table 13 Imports of Goods and Services (index
2000100) projections for Group 3 countries
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