Preparing for a Changing Climate

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Preparing for a Changing Climate
Since we cant control the natural forcings, we
need to address those things we can control. New
England Regional Assessment Insert climate
change aspect
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Preparing for a Changing Climate implications
and strategies
for agriculture and horticulture
in the Northeastern United
States
A joint project of Clean Air Cool Planet,
Cornell University, Department of Horticulture,
the Tellus Institute, and the University of
Vermont Cooperative Extension Service, funded in
part by a grant from The Hunt Foundation.
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What is Global Warming?

• Increases in global average temperature
  translating into regional climate change
• Changing precipitation
• Rising temperatures
• Extreme weather events

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Evidence of Global Warming

• Changing precipitation

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Evidence of Global Warming

• Temperature increases worldwide

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Evidence of Global Warming

• Environmental events
• Ice-cap melting
• Changes in growing season
• Shifts in species

• Temperature increases worldwide

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Causes of Global Warming

• Increase in atmospheric CO2

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Causes of Global Warming

• Various Greenhouse gases carbon dioxide,
  methane, CFCs, etc.
• Mainly from anthropogenic sources, although a
  slight influence from natural sources
• Primarily increase is due to carbon dioxide

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Major sources of carbon dioxide

• Electric generation
• Transportation
• Space and water heating
• Other industrial/manufacturing
• Land Use Change
• Tillage (CO2 from soil organic matter)

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Changes in the Northeast

• Average winter temperature increase of 1.8
  degrees F

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Changes in the Northeast

• Average winter temperature increase
• of 1.8 degrees F

Average winter temperature increases from 1895 to
the 1999.
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Changes in the Northeast

• Average winter temperature increase of 1.8
  degrees F
• Ice-out 5 to 8 days sooner

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Changes in the Northeast

• Average winter temperature increase of 1.8
  degrees F
• Ice-out 5 to 8 days sooner
• Maple syrup production decline of 20

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Why we need to act now.

• CO2 stays in the atmosphere for 100 years.
• Climate change is already affecting agriculture
• Effects will be positive and negative

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential positive effects
• Warmer, longer growing season

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential positive effects
• Warmer, longer growing season

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential positive effects
• Warmer, longer growing season
• More photosynthesis

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential positive effects
• Warmer, longer growing season
• More photosynthesis
• Potential for better plant growth

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential positive effects
• Potential for better plant growth

CO2 x High Temp Bean Yield Response
Pod dwt Total dwt Temp CO2 (g/plant) (g/pla
nt) 25 C 350 36.1 97.3 700 57.5 141.0
(59) (45) 35 C 350 33.3 145.5
700 29.9 177.4 (-12) (22)

(Jifon, 2000, Cornell U Thesis)
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Why we need to act now.

• Potential positive effects
• Warmer, longer growing season
• More photosynthesis
• Potential for better plant growth

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential negative effects

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential negative effects
• more floods and droughts

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential negative effects
• more floods and droughts
• new insect pests

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential negative effects
• more floods and droughts
• new insect pests
• invasive plant species

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential negative effects
• more floods and droughts
• new insect pests
• invasive plant species
• poor growth of cool-season crops

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential negative effects
• more floods and droughts
• new insect pests
• invasive plant species
• poor growth of cool-season crops
• decline of forests, particularly maples

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Why we need to act now.

• Potential negative effects
• decline of forests, particularly maples

Current and Projected Ranges of Sugar Maple
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Why we need to act now.

• Potential negative effects
• more floods and droughts
• new insect pests
• invasive plant species
• poor growth of cool-season crops
• decline of forests, particularly maples

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What can we do?

• Slow global warming by reducing greenhouse gases
• Build capacity to cope and adapt

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Reducing Greenhouse emissions

• Cut fossil fuel use
• Capture more carbon in plant biomass

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Reducing Greenhouse emissions

• Capture more carbon in plant biomass

Rye plow down - Cover crops like rye can
'sequester' some C02 from the atmosphere into the
soil, but tilling them in also releases C02 from
the soil.
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Reducing Greenhouse emissions

• Cut fossil fuel use
• Capture more carbon in plant biomass
• Change tillage

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Reducing Greenhouse emissions

• Cut fossil fuel use
• Efficiency on the farm
• Alternative energy sources
• Buying and selling in closer markets

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Reducing Greenhouse emissions

• Change tillage
• Reducing acreage tilled and achieving yield
  through better management
• Using chisel plow, strip-till, and no-till
  instead of moldboard plow or rototill

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Adapting to climate change

• By changing methods, techniques, varieties, we
  can learn to live with our new climate
• Who adapts?

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Adapting to climate change

• By changing methods, techniques, varieties, we
  can learn to live with our new climate
• Who adapts?
• Autonomous adaptation (private action)

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Adapting to climate change

• By changing methods, techniques, varieties, we
  can learn to live with our new climate
• Who adapts?
• Autonomous adaptation (private action)
• Planned adaptation (public action)

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Adapting to climate change

• By changing methods, techniques, varieties, we
  can learn to live with our new climate
• How do they adapt?

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Adapting to climate change

• By changing methods, techniques, varieties, we
  can learn to live with our new climate
• How do they adapt?
• Reactive adaptation

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Adapting to climate change

• By changing methods, techniques, varieties, we
  can learn to live with our new climate
• How do they adapt?
• Reactive adaptation
• Anticipatory adaptation

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Six General Adaptation Strategies

• Bear the losses
• Baseline response of doing nothing.

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Six General Adaptation Strategies
2. Share the losses Many different systems from
community based mechanism to taxation and
federally funded relief and rehabilitation.
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Six General Adaptation Strategies
3. Modify the threat Control environmental
effect e.g. dams and dikes for flood protection
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Six General Adaptation Strategies
4. Change location E.g. relocation out of flood
zone, or away from coast due to rise in sea level.
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Six General Adaptation Strategies
5. Change use E.g. change of land use from crop
land to pasture
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Six General Adaptation Strategies
6. Prevent or reduce effects E.g. improved crop
management drought resistant strains, improved
irrigation, increased fertilizer, IPM
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Adapting to climate change Options for NE
Agriculture

• Bear losses?
• Share losses?
• Modify the threat?
• Change location?
• Change use?
• Prevent or reduce impacts?

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Adapting to climate change Anticipatory options
for NE Agriculture

• Examples of preventive measures
• Relieving drought
• e.g., increased/improved irrigation
• Preventing erosion from flooding and intense
  precipitation
• e.g., improved soil management
• Combating new/more aggressive insect pests
• e.g., integrated pest management strategies

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Adapting to climate change Anticipatory options
for NE Agriculture

• Examples of preventive measures
• Destroying invasive plant species
• e.g., new herbicides
• Overcoming poor growth of cool-season crops
• e.g., switching to heat-resistant crops

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Adapting to climate change Anticipatory options
for NE Agriculture

• Examples of revenue producing measures
• Planting fuel crops
• For use on a self-sustaining farm or for sale
• Harvesting wind
• For power on the farm or sale to the grid
• Capturing methane
• - For power-generation

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Where can you learn more?

• About global warming
• www.cleanair-coolplanet.org
• About adaptation and mitigation
• www.uvm.edu/sare
• www.sare.org
• www.cornell.edu/horticulture
• www.tellus.org
• About renewable energy
• www.doe.gov/nrel

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Preparing for a Changing Climate

• A joint presentation of
• Clean Air Cool Planet
• The Tellus Institute
• Cornell University, Department of Horticulture
• The University of Vermont Cooperative Extension
  Service
• Partial funding for this presentation made
  possible
• by a grant from
• The Hunt Foundation
• Background photographs by Jerry and Marcy
  Monkman, www.ecophotography.com