Public Opinion

1
Public Opinion the News Media

• Lecture 12

2

• A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant
  man follows public opinion
  
• Chinese Proverb

3
Public Opinion

• Public opinion is what the people think about an
  issue or set of issues at any given point in
  time, and opinions are normally measured by
  opinion polls.
• Polls are interviews or surveys of a sample of
  citizens used to estimate how the public feels
  about an issue or set of issues

4
Political Socialization

• Political attitudes grounded in values learned
  from a variety of sources
  
• Family
• Friends
• Mass Media
• School
• Social Groups
• Religion
• Race
• Gender
• Age or Generation
• Region
• Political Ideology

5
Why we form political opinions

• Personal Benefits
• People tend to choose policies that benefit them
• Elderly and Social Security
• When policy does not directly affect us we
  normally do not bother to form an opinion about
  it
  
• Foreign Policy
• Political Knowledge
• Whether we realize it or not, most of us have
  political opinions formed via the political
  socialization process
  
• Cues from leaders
• Low levels of knowledge make public opinion very
  changeable. Political leaders and the media can
  have a big impact.

6
Creating a Public Opinion Poll

• Question Wording
• If the government takes away our guns that we use
  to protect our family only criminals will have
  guns and we will all be in danger. Are you in
  favor of placing your family in greater danger?
  (yes/no)
• Sampling
• Must be random
• Only generalize to the population sampled
• Contacting respondents
• Phone, mail, face-to-face, email, internet

7
Political Polls

• Tracking Polls
• Continuous surveys, often daily, used to track
  trends. Usually small samples, issues with
  reliability
  
• Push Polls
• Polls designed to push or force respondents
  towards certain conclusions or away from certain
  candidates.
  
• Exit Polls
• Conducted at polling locations on Election Day
• Will see the results in action on Election night

8
Final Florida Vote 2000 presidential election
9
Shortcomings of polling

• Sampling error
• Bush/Gore fiasco in Florida
• Voter News Service first calls state for Gore
  shortly after polls closed in eastern panhandle
  (which is heavily DEM). Then, after all polls
  closed (including those in the western panhandle
  which is heavily REP), the serviced switched and
  called state for Bush. Finally, they retracted
  and said the state was too close to call.
• Limited respondent options
• Lack of information
• Intensity

10
The News Media

• Newspapers
• New York Times
• Wall Street Journal
• USA Today
• Washington Post
• LA Times
• Television
• Major Networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC)
• Cable Channels (CNN, MSNBC)
• Radio
• Rush Limbaugh
• Internet
• All of the above have some presence on the
  Internet

11
Who the Media Covers

• President
• Most coverage of any political figure
• Very centralized approach
• Press secretary briefs media on a daily basis
• Bush administration is seen as tight-lipped and
  has poor relationship with the media.
  
• Congress
• 535 members to cover
• Very decentralized approach
• Focused on Leadership (Speaker of the House,
  majority and minority leaders, key committee
  chairs) and Campaigns
  
• Increasingly focused on wrongdoers
• CSPAN has greatly increased the coverage of
  Congress as it legislates.
  
• Judiciary
• Practically non-existent
• Only major cases receive attention

12
Terminology

• Investigative Journalism An attempt by
  reporters, which can take years to finish, to
  investigate crime, corruption, or scandals.
  
• Watergate Scandal
• Character Assassination The deliberate
  exaggeration or manipulation of facts intended to
  create a negative perception of a person or
  group.
• Allen/Webb campaign
• 1981 book "A Sense of Honor," describing the
  character "Nurse Goodbody" as "a bedtime friend
  to many of the doctors in Bethesda" who had
  hinted "that she simply could not contain
  herself."

13
Are the Media Biased?

• Liberal
• Tend to be more liberal journalists
• Issues Abortion
• Conservative
• Tend to be more radio personalities (talk shows,
  especially AM radio)
  
• Issues Taxation, Marriage
• Entertainment/Profit
• The mot pervasive bias of all
• The Media is big business
• Campaign Horse Races
• Create controversy to fuel political coverage of
  winners/losers
  

14
Does the Media Influence Me?

• Surprisingly, the answer to this NO!
• In general, people hear what they want to hear
  and use it to reinforce the opinions they bring
  to the table.
  
• Situations when reporting can sway the public
• If people are uncommitted and have no strong
  opinion
  
• If a topic is distant from our everyday lives
• Foreign policy
• They can help set the agenda by controlling what
  we see, think about, and ultimately discuss

15
Public Perception of the Media

• Very Poor
• About 10 of America has a great deal of
  confidence in the media
  
• A majority sees the media as having a liberal
  bias