Public Opinion and Polling

1
Public Opinion and Polling

• Unit 3
• AP Government

2
Public Opinion

• Public Opinion
• The opinions held by private persons which
  government feels it prudent to heed

3
Who are the Public in Public Opinion Polls??

• 1. The Elite
• Those with disproportionate amount of political
  resources.
• They raise issues and help set national agenda.
• They influence the resolution of issues.
• 2. The Attentives
• Those with an active interest in government and
  politics
• 3. The Masses
• Those with little interest in government and
  politics.

4
Understanding Public Opinion

• Most of the American public shows little
  awareness and interest in politics.
• Surveys show substantial lack of political
  knowledge on part of public
• Identifying political figures
• Identifying key issues  

5
Important Questions to Ponder

• Who is in charge of creating policy?
• How does Public Opinion Become Policy?
• Are there politics involved?
• How is reliable information gathered?
• To whom should the government listen to?

6
How is Public Opinion Measured?

• By elections
• By Polls

7
How is Public Opinion Measured?

• By elections
• Initiatives (allow citizens to propose
  legislation and submit it to popular vote.)
• Referendums (allows legislatures to submit
  proposed legislation for popular approval.)
• Party positions on issues
• By Polls
• By straw polls
• Unscientific surveys used to gauge public
  opinions
• By scientific polls
• Uses representative sampling methods 

8
Problems with these Methods

• Elections
• Not accurate because only voters participate
• More in Unit 4!
• Polling
• By straw polls
• No sampling makes them NOT accurate
• By scientific polls
• Most are accurate but will have margin of error
  which can mislead in close races 

9
Four Uses of Scientific Polls

• Inform the public.
• Inform candidates.
• Inform office-holders.
• Make election night predictions.

10
1st Public Opinion Poll

• The first public opinion research goes back to
  July 24, 1824 (For Presidential Election)
• The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian issued a report of a
  straw vote done at Wilmington, Del., "without
  discrimination of parties."
• Andrew Jackson received 335 votes
• John Quincy Adams, 169 votes
• Henry Clay, 19 votes
• William H. Crawford, 9 votes
• SoWho won in November??

11
The Gallup Poll

• Dr. George Gallup predicted the outcome of the
  1936 presidential election as a victory of
  Roosevelt over Landon with an error of 6.8
  percent.
• His method was known as quota" sampling
• Thereafter Gallup gained fame and his scientific
  method became prevalent in polling.

12
The Gallup Poll

• Gallup made an error in predicting the 1948
  presidential election
• The prediction that Thomas Dewey would defeat
  Harry Truman by anywhere from five to fifteen
  percentage points in 1948.
• When Truman actually won by more than four
  percentage points, Gallup and polling was under
  attack.

13
New Polling Methods

• In the 1956 election, Gallup abandoned "quota"
  sampling, and switched to a new method using
  random samplings
• Random or probability sampling occurs when
  everyone in population being surveyed has an
  equal chance to be sampled
• Much more accurate

14
How is a Scientific Poll Created?

• Define the universe (the population to be
  measured)
• National polls typically require 1000-2000
  respondents.
• Sampling error The margin of error is expressed
  in /- terms.
• Can reduce sampling error by adding more
  respondents
• In other wordsTake random samples WHERE everyone
  has an equal chance of being included
• Example Home Room v AP Government classes

15
Different Types of Scientific Polls

• Telephone
• Random calls
• In-Person
• Door-to-door, surveys in malls, shopping centers,
  movie theatres, and man on the street
  questionnaires
• Exit Polls
• Taken after elections when voters exit the
  polling place
• Tracking Polls
• Shows results of an issue over time

16
Problems of Polling

• Telephone
• Does not include cell phones
• In-Person
• Who stops in the Mall or opens doors these
  days???
• Exit Polls
• Who stops to talk to pollsters after elections?
• 2004 election
• Tracking
• Taken out of context they make no more sense than
  a single frame from a movie.

17
Abuses of Polls

• Horse race mentality emphasized during
  campaigns at expense of issues.
• No real storyjust what the polls say
• In a horse race world, horse race polls can tell
  you whos ahead but not why.
• Example The strategies range from Rep. Richard
  A. Gephardts one-state last stand in Iowa to
  Sen. Joseph I. Liebermans rapid-fire attacks on
  Dean to retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clarks
  national campaign on electability. All of them
  depend on Dean stumbling during the Jan. 19 Iowa
  caucuses and the New Hampshire primary the
  following week.
• This use of polls panders to candidates and
  office-holders.

18
Push Poll Questions

• Questions that are deliberately phrased to give
  information to public
• Usually negative
• Would you be more or less likely to support Doug
  Goehring if you knew he was against ethanol and
  didn't support farmers?
• Would you be more or less likely to support Doug
  Goehring if you knew he was head of Nodak Mutual
  when it was under state investigation and that
  the state had to take it over because of his
  leadership?

19
The Most Famous Push Poll Question

• Voters in South Carolina reportedly were asked
  before the 2000 Republican primary
• "Would you be more likely or less likely to vote
  for John McCain for president if you knew he had
  fathered an illegitimate black child?
• The allegation had no substance, but planted the
  idea of undisclosed allegations in the minds of
  thousands of primary voters.
• McCain and his wife had in fact adopted a
  Bangladeshi girl.)

20
The Newest Push Poll Tactic-The Robo-Call

• The Obama campaign has released a recording (mp3)
  it says came from a Nevadan's answering machine
  of an anonymous robocall that criticizes Obama
  for taking money from special interests while
  repeating, four times, his rarely used middle
  name "Hussein."
• "I'm calling with some important information
  about Barack Hussein Obama," the call begins,
  before saying that  "Barack Hussein Obama says he
  doesn't take money from Washington lobbyists or
  special interest groups but the record is clear
  that he does."
• After mentioning his full name once more, the
  call concludes
• "You just can't take a chance on Barack Hussein
  Obama.

http//www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Roboca
ll_trashes_Barack_Hussein_Obama.html
21
New Rule Prohibiting Unwanted "Robocalls" Takes
Effect on September 1, 2009

• The Federal Trade Commission will now prohibit
  prerecorded commercial telemarketing calls to
  consumers unless the telemarketer has obtained
  permission in writing from consumers who want to
  receive such calls.
• Calls not covered by the TSR include
• Those from politicians, banks, telephone
  carriers, and most charitable organizations
• The new prohibition on prerecorded messages does
  not apply to certain healthcare messages.
• The new rule prohibits telemarketing robocalls to
  consumers whether or not they previously have
  done business with the seller.

22
Creating an Accurate Poll

• You must have
• Carefully Worded Questions
• No bias and clearly differentiated alternatives
• A poll that actually seeks the truth
• Not Advocacy and Push Polls which try to
  influence the outcome
• Look for reliable pollsters- not party polls
• Remember
• Polls are just a snapshot and may be wrong!!!
• Example- 2004 Exit Polls and Election of 1948

23
Optional Public Opinion Project

• You will create a political survey alone or with
  a small group. (Can be for SEG 3 or SEG 4)
• One Person- Create a survey of 3 questions about
  same topic
• Small Group (2-5 people) - Create a survey of 10
  questions about 2-5 topics
• Please be specific- yes/no questions are easiest!
• Example
• Do you believe gay marriage should be legal in
  the United States?
• Full Details on my Blog
• http//waltonhigh.typepad.com/ms_boyd/
• Please see me for question approval.

24
Public Opinion

• Read Chapter 11!