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Motorization and Environmental Problems in
ChinaTraffic Fatalities, Vehicle Emission and
Traffic Congestion

• Presented for MIT International Motor
  Vehicle Program
• Researchers
  Meeting, May 6-7, 2004
• Chunli LEE
• Visiting scholar,
  Harvard University
• Professor, Faculty of Economics,
  Aichi University

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Development of Motorization in China

• In 2003, China produced 4.44 mil. of vehicles,
  and 2.06 mil. of passenger cars out of them,
  becoming a fourth automobile producing power in
  the world to the U.S., Japan and Germany, and
  ahead of France.
• In addition, the number of cars produced in the
  first quarter in 2004 was 576,900 with
  considerable 41.9 increase on a year-to-year
  comparison.
• China is presumed to exceed the number of cars
  produced in German (5.46 mil.2002, -3.9)
• ? It has come to create a strong impression of
  the Chinese motorization on the inside and
  outside of China.

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Motorization in China

• The number of automobiles held in China shows
  approximately 15 growth on an average per year.
• The number of 1990 was about 5.8 million in China
  and increased to 24.2 million in 2003
• This means the number quadrupled or more in 13
  years, and increased at the rate of 1.4 million
  on an average per year by a simple estimation.
• Driver license holders are increasing rapidly
  the number in 2003 increased by 5.5 million
  comparing with it in 2002.
• Increasing (2003) 24.2mil.- (2002)
  20.5mil.3.7mil.
• 1.8 mil. new license holders are so-called
• 
  paper driver.

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Table 1 Production volume,
vehicle ownership, traffic
fatalities and drivers license holders in China
Source Complied by Chunli Lee from the Chinese
Automobile Industry Almanac, the Chinese
Statistical Yearbook, and the Chinese Traffic
Almanac
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Motorization and Traffic Fatalities in China

• With the development of motorization, China has
  enormously affluent traffic fatalities by
  automobile. Traffic death means a person who is
  killed by traffic accident within 24 hours.
• comparison of traffic fatalities between Japan
  and China
• Traffic Fatality Rate (TFRTraffic Deaths/Vehicle
  Ownership)
• Japan - vehicle ownership 73,989,350 units,
• (2003) - traffic fatalities
  7,702 people.
• China - the vehicle ownership 24,211,615
  (33 of Japanese one)
• (2003) - traffic fatalities
  104,372 people.
• - traffic fatality rate per vehicle of China is
  51 times as that of Japan.
• Japan - vehicle ownership 24,999,281 (same
  scale, 30 years gap)
• (1973) - traffic fatalities
  14,574
• - TFR (China2003/Japan1973) 7.4
  times
• Japan - vehicle ownership 17,581,843 (the worst
  year)
• (1970) - traffic fatalities
  16,765
• China - the vehicle ownership 20,531,700
  
• (2002) - traffic fatalities
  109,381. TFR 5.6 times

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Table 2 Comparison of Traffic Fatality Rate by
Vehicle between China and Japan
Source Complied by Chunli Lee. Note Traffic
fatality rate per vehicle is defined as the
number of traffic fatalities divided by the
number of vehicle ownership in
China or Japan.
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The Traffic War 300 traffic deaths in a day!

• Japan had the most traffic fatalities in 1970,
  with 16,765 people. The Basic Law for Traffic
  Safety Control has been enforced since 1970, and
  a term of the Traffic War appeared.
• This was because casualties of the Japan side at
  the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95) swere 13,000
  people and the fatalities exceeded the level,
  then such a traffic situation can be called as
  the Traffic War.
• Then, after 30 years in 2002, Japan reduced
  traffic fatalities of 8,326 people recorded in
  1970 by half.
• Meanwhile, China had the most traffic death in
  2002, with 109,381 people. It represents that
  China has approximately 300 deaths in a day!
• The Japanese traffic fatalities in the whole year
  of 2002 are equivalent to only 28 days(!) of the
  Chinese ones.
• Its hard to imagine that safety of the Chinese
  urban traffic can be secured when the well-known
  flood of bicycles will be transformed into the
  flood of vehicles.

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Air Pollution and Vehicle Emission in China

• WHO Report worst cities 7/10 in China
• --An air pollution report for 272 cities in
  54 countries released in 1998 by the World Health
  Organization noted that of the ten most polluted
  cities in the world, seven can be found in China.
  
• Air pollution problem cannot be caused by vehicle
  emission only, but the situation will worsen with
  higher risk as vehicle population grows.
• Photochemical smog
• --For example, In the early 1990s the
  Chinas first photochemical smog was observed in
  Chengdu city of Sichuan Province, furthermore,
  another photochemical cases have been
  successively found in Shanghai, Beijing,
  Guangzhou, Shengzhen and Lanzhou since 1995.
• In Beijing out of air pollutants, it is
  considered that 68 of nitrogen oxide (NOx) and
  76 of carbon oxide (CO) are from vehicle
  emission.

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Table3 Conditions of Pollutants in Major City
of China
Source Chunli Lee and http//www.japan.org.cn/j//
2nd/20tier/03keizai/lc0103-13.html
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Gasoline, and the combined pollution

• China is the third largest energy consuming
  country after the U.S. and Russia.
• In 2000, gasoline consumption by vehicles
  accounted for 85 of total gasoline, 41.35
  million tons and 20 of diesel oil, 70.79 million
  tons, which are produced in China.
• Urban air pollutions in China have been changing
  from the conventional dust type to the combined
  type or vehicle pollution type.
• Air pollution from vehicle emission is generally
  categorized as the developed country-specific
  pollution due to motorization, while air
  pollution caused by dust is categorized as
  developing country-specific one.
• Chinas air pollution is characterized as the
  combined pollution in which developed and
  developing specific ones are mixed.

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Oak Ridge National Laboratory (U.S.) Report

• Global CO2 emission was 6.2 billion metric tons
  of carbon in 1994 22.4 of the total emission
  was from the U.S. and China emitted 13.4 of it
  followed by Russia and Japan.
• Some prediction addresses that at this pace, the
  CO2 emission from China will reach 37 of the
  global emission in 2010, leading the country to
  exhaust the worst in the world.
• In Japan, it is supposed that approximately 20
  of heat-trapping gases are emitted by automobile
  transportation category.
• China is predicted to enter substantially
  motorization between 2005 and 2010. This timing
  coincides with such timing as China exhausts CO2
  emission the worst in the world.

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Countermeasures, Standards

• To address air pollution, China has introduced
  the Urban Air Quality Weekly/Daily system since
  1998, establishing API (Air Pollution Index)
  based on the State Standard to broadcast API of
  major cities throughout China in weather forecast
  programs everyday.
• In addition, the Chinese Government has
  introduced emission standards nation-widely at
  the level of the EU environmental standards Euro
  1 since 2000 and applied the Euro 2 emission
  standards since 2004.
• Many problems remain. Those problems include the
  rapid growth of vehicle holders, budget deficit
  of local government, immature skill of monitoring
  and short of manpower.

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Beijings Challenge Green Beijing, Green
Olympics

• At the bidding for the 2008 Olympics, out of over
  ten questions by the IOC committees, three
  questions focused on Beijings environmental
  problems.
• Beijing has set the municipal standards regarding
  a series of vehicle emission gases to impose
  regulations on vehicles since 1994.
• Beijing Controlling and Prevention Law for Air
  Pollution by Vehicle Emission provides that
  vehicles, which meet the standards of Beijings
  own regulations, are exclusively permitted to
  sell.
• Beijing announced local governments regulations
  including emission gas standards for cars in
  1998. They are stricter than the RPC Air
  Pollution Prevention Law.

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Beijings Challenge (continued)

• The laws enacted by Beijing define 5 articles of
  the Air Pollution Prevention Law more minutely
  and strictly, adding 9 articles of control
  measures. --Of these 9 articles, six
  are for vehicle emission control. Penalties are
  also set for those articles.
• The Beijing regulation has the similar
  characteristics with the Californias one and the
  diesel one by Tokyo in terms of municipal
  governments regulations even with the different
  level of them.
• In 1999, Beijing enforced vehicle emission
  regulations, which is equivalent to Euro 2, ahead
  of other cities in China. Since Beijing will host
  the 2008 Olympic Games, it is going to regulate
  vehicle emission gases at the level of the Euro 3
  standards from 2005.
• --In China, Beijing is the first city
  which declares implementation
• of the standards.
• The environment measures of Beijing, which got
  the host for Olympic Games under the catchphrase
  Green Beijing, Green Olympics, can be seen as a
  touchstone of whether they work as a frontier for
  Chinese environmental problems and solve advanced
  challenges or not.