IN SEARCH OF...

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IN SEARCH OF...

• The Russian Military

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AGENDA

• Admin
• Website of the Day
• Nuclear Proliferation
• Civil Military Relations
• Russian Military Force and Doctrine

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ADMINISTRATIVE

• "Critical Condition The Russian Health and
  Demographic Crisis," by Judith
• Twigg.
• Monday, May 14 4pm,
• 550 Prior Health Sciences Library,
  Medical Heritage Center,
• 376 W 10th Ave, OSU Campus
• Free and open to the public.
• Sponsored by the OSU School of Public Health
  and the Center for Slavic and East European
  Studies.
• For more information, call 292-8770.

• Lunch Monday
• Branden Hudsen
• Roman Nitze
• Lunch Wednesday
• Jeff Rose
• Kelly Woods
• Michael Cohen
• Essay Two due on 5/21 (11 days from now)
• Start coming with ideas this weekend
• Make more efficient use of your reading time
• Do some poking around on the various websites
• Seniors
• Senior Final 5/28 at 100 in 0150 Derby Hall
• Senior Papers Due 5/29 NO LATER THAN 500
• Reclammae
• Whom do We Owe a Dollar?

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NEWS
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NUCLEAR SECURITY AND PROLIFERATIONBACKGROUND

• Soviet goals
• Avoid nuclear war
• Substantial numerical superiority
• Forward deployment
• Mutual assured destruction
• No first strike
• Prepare for a deep strike
• Fulda Gap
• (David Halloways Stalin and the Bomb)

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ARMS NEGOTIATIONS

• SALT I signed in 1972
• ABM component 2 ABM areas
• 1974 Protocol changed this to one (Moscow and
  Silos)
• 1995 reaffirmed by Yeltsin and Clinton
• ICBM/SLBM limits
• Gave edge to Soviets
• MIRV technology and ABM component

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SALT II

• Signed in 1979
• Limited delivery systems and MIRVs
• Hardened silos, bombers, cruise missiles
• Ratification Problems
• Talks (renamed START and INF) essentially stalled
  until...

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GORBACHEV

• Needed to Fix the Economy
• Looked Serious about Cutbacks
• Euphoria as US and USSR in bidding war
• INF Treaty Signed in 1987
• CFE Treaty Signed in 1990
• But Gorby Lost His Job

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YELTSIN and PUTIN

• START I (1991, implemented in 1994)
• Kazakstan, Belarus, Ukraine???
• START II (signed in late 1992, ratified last
  year)
• Halved again, to about 3000(!)
• START III (hopeless?)
• Future of the ABM Treaty doubtful
• Current status of strategic forces
• Command Exercise
• New systems
• Upkeep and fielding of new equipment

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FOUR SOURCES of NUCLEAR MATERIAL

• Ministry of Defense
• Strategic
• Tactical
• Minatom (Military)
• Grows by 60 tons a year!
• Minatom (Civil)
• includes nuclear storage
• Science and Research
• widespread, but shrinking
• cheap locks and occasional guards

Security Measures
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SUPPLY SIDE

• Economic chaos
• Power of the mafia
• Security procedures require support
• Relatively easy to smuggle/transport

DEMAND SIDE

• Groups Want the Power
• Some groups have money
• Technical considerations
• But Brain Drain

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CHOKE POINT

• None makes defense difficult
• What can the US do?
• Will the situation improve?
• What are we doing to help?
• 1991 Nunn-Lugar Act
• Provide secure transportation
• Provide assistance dismantling
• Fund research (ISTC)
• Assistance with storage and accounting

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HIGHLIGHTS OF CURRENT SITUATION

• Difficulty establishing an export regime
• Strategic Forces necessary
• but out of favor
• Collapse of military and civilian structures?
• Uncertain security situation

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RUSSIAS MEMBERSHIPS

• Export Control Regime
• Wassenaar Arrangement
• Dual Use
• Arms Exports
• MTCR
• CWC, Australia Convention
• NSG and NPT
• PfP and OSCE (and of course UN, CIS)

Russias chemical demilitarization program has
suffered from serious funding problems, prompting
Moscow to miss a CWC deadline to destroy 1
percent of its Category 1 chemical weapons by
April 29, 2000. To date, Russia has only
destroyed specialized chemical weapons components
but not any agent under the CWC. Construction has
started on only one of Russias chemical weapons
destruction facilities, which will not begin
destruction activities until at least 2002.
Moscow currently intends to build two more
destruction facilities but has yet to finalize
its plans.
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RUSSIAN ARMY

• What do you think of the readings?
• Favorites? Hates? Concerns?
• What struck you about the stories told?
• What stories remain to be told?
• What questions do you have?

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CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS

• What does regime stability demand?
• What does democracy require?
• What is the situation in Russia?
• Are they a powerful political force?
• Why/why not?
• Is this okay?
• Does the possibility of a coup exist?

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HISTORY SAYS...

• 1991 How NOT to run a coup
• 1993 Accounts differ
• 1994-95 Chechnya Defections
• 1995 Elections
• 1999 Putin?

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MILITARY REFORM

• On the verge of collapse
• Agree? Disagree?
• Problems
• Equipment
• Personnel
• Training and Combat Readiness
• Doctrine

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MILITARY REFORM II

• Consolidation/Elimination at lower echelons
• Cut Unnecessary Fat
• Could be real opportunity but
• Fewer Training Academies, etc.

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NEW MILITARY DOCTRINE

• Defensive in Nature
• Statement of Situation
• Decline in threat of large scale war
• Increase in small scale problems
• Exacerbated By
• Ignoring UN and OSCE
• Non sanctioned humanitarian intervention
• Violation of arms treaties
• Other international meddling
• (Dont forget the information doctrine!)

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NEWS ON MILITARY REFORM

• From Janes
• Russia has no more Photo Spy Satellites
• Russias Arms Bazaar
• China and India, Iran
• Shanghai Five
• Putin Reinvents the KGB
• Russian Military Reform mass media control and
  information security (!)
• Paras Flying High
• Putin Wields his Scalpel
• Putin Appointments Aim to Bolster Armed Forces
  Reform
• Putin to Cut Russias Regular Armed Forces by a
  Third

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CIVIL-MILTARY RELATIONS REVISITED

• Its bad in the military
• Why so quiet?
• Kim Zisks Argument
• Exit or Voice
• Or
• So why do they stay?
• So why do they stay quiet?

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DISCUSSION

• Where should Russia go from here?
• National Interest?