Peter Cochrane

1
Digital Coexistence. the impact of new tech
opportunities!

• Peter Cochrane

2
Were in the midst of continuous transformation.

• Technology changes faster than us
• Old rules and systems no longer work
• Hierarchies no longer dominate
• Organizations are more distributed and global
• Small companies dominate
• Large companies aggregate integrate
• People are more mobile demanding
• Being TechAble is no longer an option
• Everything is now non-linear chaotic

3
A future of man, woman machine...
gt240 Machines gt1TFlop
FLOPS
IBM Blue Gene
100,000 Teraflop desktop
10
17
15
10
10
Human Brain
13
CM-5
10
12
Teraflop
SUPERCOMPUTERS
Delta
CM-2
11
Cray C-90
10
Cray Y-MP
10
10
Massively parallel
Cray X-MP
10
Cray-1
9
CDC 7600
8
10
Cray -2
Multiprocessors
Stretch
ILLIAC IV
10
7
CDC 6600
LARC
10
6
CDC 1604
Vector
10
5
10
4
Scalar
10
UNIVAC
ENIAC
3
10
2
Relays
Vacuum tubes
Transistors
Micro-processors
10
Integrated circuits
1000x
1
0.1
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1940
2010
4
Faster faster wealth generation
USBn
100
PC
Internet
Mobile
90
80
New Company Value
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year
5
Prediction 1 2015 Super iPod
Every music track ever recorded on a single
device in your shirt pocket 10 years later
every movie
6
My Office Home 2004
Network
WiFi 802.11
n?
Local Switch Router
Global Net Switch
2TByte Server
LAN 100 Mbit/s
Clock
3 GHz
Optical Fibre 2Mbit/s Local
8 Gb/s
2.4/10Gb/s
Long Lines
7
My Office Home 2005
Free VOIP/WiFi 802.11
Network
n?
Local Switch Router
Global Net Switch
3TByte Server
LAN 100 Mbit/s
Clock
3 GHz
8 Gb/s
2.4/10Gb/s
Long Lines
Optical Fibres 1x2Mbit/s 1x10Mbit/s Local
8
My Office Home 2010
Free VO(VID)IP/WiFi gt100Mbit/s
Network
n?
Global Net Access
100 TByte Server
Clock
LAN 10Gbit/s
15 GHz
1Gbit/s Extended Fibre/Wireless Local Loop
8 Gb/s
9
Individual BW demand
Heath Care Services
Domestic Server Back Up
3D Games
Video VOIP
Security Nets
Digital Camera Back Up
Games
Movie Downloads
MP3 Music Downloads
Web Browsing
eMail
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Consumer Net Usage Trends
Frequency of use
Continuous Seconds Minutes Hourly Daily Wee
kly
Bit Rate
9600 14.4 k 56 k 2M
10M Ethernet
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Where the action always is!
Business
Hot Spot
People
Technology
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What we know
5 year future - all of the technology is in the
lab now - we just have to look for
it 10 year future - a lot of the technology is
in the lab right now - but some isnt 20
year future - we are more or less blind!
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What we know no one can predict

• The future accurately
• What people will do with technology
• What society will do with technology
• How stupid organisations will be!

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A commonly held view more of the same
but better!
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What is All This Garbage?
Lets converge into one device
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Or a nightmare of feature death doing
everything badly?
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Convergence myth replaced by connectivity!
Displays
Human Interface Devices
Mobiles
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How far have we come??
Honeywell DDP-516 1969
PalmOne Treo 2004
35 years
50 kb/s leased line
50 kb/s GPRS link
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The dream.seamless access!
Cameras - VOIP - Sensors - Positioning
3m 30m
3km Ubiquitous
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Appropriate technology a
part of your toolkit

• Dont use it/IT because it is fashionable!
• Use it/IT because it gives a good ROI

• Ignore it/IT at your peril!
• Watch the competition
• Watch other sectors

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Business Wealth Generation
?
Science Technology Knowledge Engineering Products
Services Education Employment ChangeMarkets Susta
inability

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ROI
?
nvestment nnovation deas

• Return On

T??? Technology People Employment ProductMarket S
ustainability
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Business Drivers
1960/70 1980/00 Monopoly
Market
Its about
Me You The
supplier The customer
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RFID will revolutionize every aspect of the
supply chain - from raw materials to manufacture,
logistics, supply support. In the field of
healthcare RFID will save lives, increase
efficiency and reduce costs.
Bar Code RFID
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A retail revolution - RFID BlueTooth WiFi in
every EPOS
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Cell Phone also becomes a wallet, transaction
centre, passport, ID and passport,
insurance/medical record locator and tracking
deviceTriangulation, GPS, RFID,EPOS, WiFi,
BlueTooth, NanoGyros
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On-Line Monitoring Anywhere
Anytime Any Activity
Sporting
Working
Zzzzzzz...
28
Surrogate surgery
MM, VR, Telepresence will change...
Dublin
Sheffield
...the way service is delivered education
training is provided
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The destruction of the insurance industryby RFID
GPS ?
Where are my things? Who has them? What are
they doing?
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Prediction 3

• The data mining of medical records will see
• the biggest health gains since the provision
• of clean water and waste disposal!

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If time money... ...then so does position
32
Current GPS Applications
Power Telecommunication Law Enforcement Emergency
Services Weather Scientific Construction Census R
ecreation Asset Tracking
Aviation Maritime Highway Railroad Mass
Transit Crime Prevention Surveying Agriculture Ban
king Defence
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2005
GPS Alone 100 - 10m.military 1m
34
2015
GPS GSM EPOS MEMS 1cm
35
Prediction 4
Positioning systems will become as essential as
communication nets in the future economy
36
Change takes time
Mobile phones gt Fixed line 12 years Digital
Fax gt Analogue Fax 8 years Colour
TV gt BW TV 11 years CD gt Audio
Tape 9 years DVD gt VHS Tape 7
years Digital Nets gt Analogue Nets 15
years Optical Fibre gt Copper Microwave 20
years
37
Prediction 5

• Converting the sea of bits gathered
• by industry into useful information
• knowledge will bring about the biggest
• change in industry since the steam engine!

38
USA Creative class 1900-1999
Service Class
6o
X
X
50
Creative Class
X
40
Millions
Working Class
X
30
X
Super Creatives
20
X
X
X
X
X
10
X
Agriculture
1991
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1999
Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative
Class, Basic Books, 2002 (Figure 4.1, p. 73)
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Who will do all the work in future?

• The workforce will be more
• tech aware/capable
• generationally diffused
• culturally diverse
• geographically dispersed
• organizationally mobile
• Organizations will
• have a much smaller core staff
• make extensive use of outsourcing
• involve more partners
• hire more temporary teams
• have to be global

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Prediction 6

• The IT and security departments of big
  companies will go the same way as the typing pool
  for the same reasons!

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One of the biggest opportunities left risk
mitigation in logistics
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Observation
45 of purchase price is
down to transaction cost A large slice of this
is down to logistics
43
Standardisation
Loading reloading ship 1980 108 men X 5
days 2000 8 men X 1 day 540 Man Days gtgtgt 8
(-98.5)
44

• Logistics is inherently non-linear
• Moving anything involves risk
• Risk cannot be removed - it can only be mitigated
• Things do go wrong!

45
gt10,000 containers per year pushed overboard in
stormy weather or lost at sea by
some mechanism
46
Atoms
Customer
Manufacturer

No attempt has been made to simultaneously
optimize the flow of goods and
47
Stove pipe hell!
20 Banks 20 Insurers
48
RFID
Higher orders of complexity to come!
Goods
Packs
Containers
49
In the next phase RFID GPS AI takes over.
and gt 2T may be saved!
50
A world of opportunity risk.
Thank you, cochrane.org.uk conceptlabs.net