Public Opinion

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Public Opinion

• Democracy A method of selecting policymakers
  and of organizing government so that policy
  represents and responds to citizen preferences.
• Given this definition, why is public opinion
  important in the United States?
• How well does American democracy respond to
  citizen preferences? Depends on the institution,
  but most scholarships suggests that the US
  government is quite responsive.
• Electoral forces tend to be the key to this, by
  changing who governs and motivating changes by
  incumbents.

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Political Socialization

• The process through which an individual acquires
  his or her particular political orientations his
  knowledge, feelings, and evaluations regarding
  his or her political world.
• Often includes socio-political attitudes,
  opinions related to culture wars have come
  under study relative to political socialization.

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Agents of Political Socialization

• The Family-- monopolizes early years, evidence
  suggests parents influence childrens beliefs.
• Mass Media-- provides political information,
  young dont watch news import of entertainment
  media .
• Schools-- Civics courses, history, POLS 110,
  student government.
• Friends and Colleagues (Peers)-- Who we surround
  ourselves with influence our political beliefs.
• Church-- Church goers are likely influenced by
  others in church and politically relevant beliefs
  in church.

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The Public Opinion Poll

• Polls are used to identify the distribution of
  the populations beliefs about politics and
  policy.
• Scientific polling uses samples, which include a
  small proportion of the population selected to
  represent the population as a whole.
• Random sampling. Key All persons in the target
  population have an equal probability of being
  selected (as part of the sample).
• Sampling error. Larger samples produce less
  error about 1500 of US population give /- 3.
• http//media.gallup.com/PDF/FAQ/HowArePolls.pdf
  Please read this selection.

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Problems with Polls

• Are politicians leading or following the polls?
  Evidence suggests both. Government hardly
  insulated from public opinion, as Founders
  designed.
• Many polls arent scientific (dont randomly
  sample), yet people draw conclusions from them
  anyway.
• Internet polls, call-in polls, mail-in surveys.
• Findings may change due to question wording and
  question ordering. Be careful of the source.
• Data Source http//www.pollingreport.com

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What We Know of American Public Opinion

• The Publics knowledge on issues is extremely
  low. Most people are ill-informed when it comes
  to policies and issues.
• Individuals rarely hold stable opinions.
• Decline in trust in government.
• Public opinions often contradict and can be
  difficult to interpret.
• Policies are complex People dont spend the
  time to understand them. Media helps little
  here.
• Collective opinion IS rational, however,
  fluctuating predictably with events and the
  economy.

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How Do People Form Their Opinions?

• Opinions are often based on our own core values
  which are stable but, opinions fluctuate with
  new information.
• Ideology structures opinions, as it tends to be
  stable.
• People use heuristics (or short-cuts and cues) to
  help form their opinions. Often take the form of
  cues including
• political party (party ID often influences our
  opinion), acting as a filter. Cognitive
  Dissonance
• whats salient in the media media evaluation of
  issues impacts public perception.
• real-world cues, e.g. health of economy, war.

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Political Ideologies

• Ideology is a difficult subject, because most
  Americans do not fit on the typical ideology
  scale, of left to right.
• Ideology defined A consistent relation between
  individual opinions.
• Liberals Believe in a strong role for
  government in regulating equality. A weak role
  for government in regulating order.
• Conservatives Believe in limited government in
  regulating equality, strong government in
  regulating order.

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The Left-Right Continuum, on size of government
Liberal
Conservative
Moderates
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Typology of Ideologies
Equality
Communitarian
Liberal
Conservative
Libertarian
Freedom
Order