Diabetes System Dynamics Modeling Focus Area SDM FA Tools

1
Diabetes System Dynamics Modeling Focus Area (SDM
FA) Tools Resources

• Diabetes Primary Prevention Initiative (DPPI)
• CDC Diabetes Translation Conference 2009
• Long Beach, CA

2
Systems

• A system is an entity which maintains its
  existencethrough the mutual interaction of its
  parts.
• Ludwig von Bertalanffy
• (Austrian Biologist )

3
(No Transcript)
4
Possible Diabetes Prevalence Futures
2009
5
Diabetes Unhealthy Days in Minnesota
Past
Possible Futures
400
350
Monthly Unhealthy Days from Diabetes per Thousand
Minnesota Adults
300
250
200
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
A comprehensive approach is needed, starting now,
to reduce the burden of diabetes for the
short-term and long-term future.
6
Using Systems Thinking and Modeling for Strategic
Planning
7
Using Systems Thinking and Modeling for Strategic
Planning
Diabetes Systems Dynamics Model
8
Puzzle Pieces
Build Implementation Capacity
Build Scientific Infrastructure
Share Tools Methods
Understand Audiences Applications
8
9
Products Scientific Infrastructure

• SDM Product

• Use by Other States

• Model Reference Guide
• Sensitivity test results
• Scientific review summary
• State calibrations
• (Implementation)

• Understand model details
• Demonstrate stability of model conclusions
• Clarify valid/invalid uses for model
• Help states decide when/why to calibrate (plus 13
  states done!)

10
(No Transcript)
11
State Selection(Geography, Age, Race/Ethnicity,
Obesity, Diabetes, Insurance)
12
Relative Contributions of Policy Alternatives to
Improving Unhealthy Days
20
28
28
28
27
27
26
25
25
25
24
23
22
13
Uses and Audiences
14
Outcomes Audiences/Applications

• SDM Products

• Use by Other States

• Key strategic questions
• Key uses and audiences
• Facilitators Guide with FAQs
• Community Engagement Toolkit

• Better understand and anticipate diverse audience
  needs

15
Brief on Key Model Insights

• The better we do at diabetes detection and
  treatment, the more we miss our prevalence goal
  (i.e., diagnosed diabetes prevalence increases).
• Success with primary prevention wont reduce the
  burden.
• Diabetes management has both short- and long-term
  impacts on the diabetes burden.
• The more we can reduce diabetes onset, the more
  quickly we will contain the diabetes burden.
• With a combination of downstream and upstream
  actions, starting now, we can hold the line on
  the burden of diabetes in the U.S. for the next
  four decades and beyond.

16
Outcomes Implementation Capacity

• SDM Product

• Use by Other States

• Case studies
• Delivery methods full day, ½ day, 1-2 hours,
  written/briefing paper
• Facilitators can be epi staff, program staff, or
  partners
• Evaluation methods questions
• Learning Lab PowerPoints

• Adapt model use to specific audiences
• Epidemiologists/ researchers
• Diabetes program managers/planners
• Community coalition members
• Chronic disease program planners
• Legislators and policymakers

17
Case StudiesWealth of Systems Experience

• California
• Florida
• Minnesota
• Mississippi
• Vermont
• Washington

18
Additional Products Tools

• Background Paper
• Bibliography

19
SDM FA Participants/Contacts

• Centers for Disease Control Prevention
• Parul Nanavati pnanavati_at_cdc.gov, Chris
  Benjamin, Kris Ernst
• Center for Public Health Practice, Rollins School
  of Public Health, Emory University
• Joyce Essien, Drew Jones, Doc Klein, Jack Homer
• California Diabetes Program
• Karen Black Karen.black_at_cdph.ca.gov, Gary He
  Gary.He_at_cdph.ca.gov, Toshi Kobayashi, Javier
  Carrillo
• Minnesota Diabetes Program
• Jay Desai Jay.Desai_at_state.mn.us, Heather Devlin
  hdevlin_at_gsu.edu, Anne Walaszek
• Vermont Diabetes Program
• Robin Edelman, Jason Roberts