Climate Change and Health

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Climate (Change) and Health

• Glenn McGregor
• Department of Geography
• Kings College London
• glenn.mcgregor_at_kcl.ac.uk

US-UK Conference on Climate Change and Urban
Areas London April 3-4, 2006
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Structure

• Why might health be sensitive to weather and
  climate and why worry?
• Physiology of heat related illness and death
• August 2003 heat wave An example of the impact
  of hot weather on health
• Does the urban heat island have an impact on
  health?
• Climate change and health
• Conclusions

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1. Why Might Health be Sensitive to Weather and
Climate and Why Worry ?
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The Human Thermal Environment
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Human Biometeorology
gerd.jendritzky_at_dwd.de
DWD 2003
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Human Biometeorology
cold
warm
(Aschoff und Wever, 1958)
gerd.jendritzky_at_dwd.de
DWD 2003
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Human Biometeorology
The Thermal Environment
D
I
A
QRE
R
QL
EKM
M
E
E
QH
QSw
R
R
E
gerd.jendritzky_at_dwd.de
DWD 2002
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2. Physiology of Heat Related Illness and Death
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Heat Tolerance Water Balance
Dehydration() and Effects
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Relationship between cold, heat and mortality
Cold
Mortality
Heat
Temperature
Keatinge et al., 2000 British Med. J.
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3. The August 2003 Heat Wave An Example of the
Impact of Hot Weather on Health
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August 2003 European Heat Wave

• One of Europes most extreme weather events and
  climate anomalies
• Temperatures across parts of Europe in early
  August were 8-12oC above normal
• Brogdate, near Faversham, Kent, recorded the UKs
  highest ever temperature of 38.5oC on 10 August
• Drought across Europe exacerbated by heat wave
• Agricultural production severely affected,
  outbreaks of fires and large number of heat
  related deaths across Europe (gt20000)

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Temperature Anomalies Across UK (compared
to1971-2000average)
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Health Impacts of 2003 Heat Wave
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August 2003 Heat Wave
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Emergency hospital admissions
Data courtesy of London Health Observatory
Children, all causes 0-14 years
Elderly, all causes gt75 years
Kovats (LSHTM)
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Hot weather and calls to NHS Direct
Leonardi, Hajat, Kovats, et al. 2006 in press
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75 Mortality London
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Heat Wave ( excess) mortality by place of death
Kovats, et al. 2006, Health Stats Q
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August 2003 Heat Wave Increase in Mortality
London all ages 16 in 1995 and 15 in 1976
Source Johnson et al., 2005 Health Stats Quart.
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4. Does The Urban Heat Island Have an Impact on
Health?
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London Climate Stations
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Diurnal (hourly)Variation of UHI
LWC - Heathrow
LWC - Wisely
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London UHI at 0300hrs and 1500hrsSummer 2003
(LWC Wisley)
0300hrs
1500hrs
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UHI, Tmin and Tmax Correlation with 75 Mortality
when UHI Exceeds Given Standardised Threshold
(JJA 1995 and 2003)
Significance 0.05 0.01
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5. Climate Change
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Impacts of Climate Change on Health
Source http//www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en
/
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Summer 2003 Not Anomalous by 2050
Stott et al., 2004 Nature
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2003 The shape of things to come?
.10
.08
.06
Frequency
.04
.02
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
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Maximum Temperature C Basel, Switzerland
Source Martin Beniston http//www.unifr.ch/geosci
ence/geographie/Personal/MB/mb.htmlPres
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Number of Days with Tmaxgt 30C Changes in Heat
Wave Duration (3x?) Frequency (10x?)
1 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
90 100 200
Source http//www.unifr.ch/geoscience/geographie/
Personal/MB/mb.htmlPres
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Source http//www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/index.html
Source http//www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/index.html
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Source http//www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/index.html
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6. Conclusions

• Climate and weather have discernable impact on
  health departures from normal conditions are
  important
• Urban heat may have impact on health in extreme
  events (EE)
• Trends in urban heat will depend very much on the
  physical nature of cities in the future
• Climate change bears implications for increases
  in heat related death watch warning systems just
  one way of adapting to changes in EE.
• Mitigation and adaptation must proceed hand in
  hand if society is to avoid marked impacts on
  health from changes in all aspects of climate

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European Union and WHO Programmes

• http//www.euro.who.int/globalchange
• http//bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/rapidpdf/bmj.38684.
  496354.DEv1
• http//www.euro.who.int/Document/Mediacentre/fs150
  5e.pdf
• http//www.euro.who.int/globalchange/Publications/
  20051202_1
• http//www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/
• PHEWE www.epiroma.it/phewe/about.htm
• EuroHeat http//www.who.dk/eprise/main/WHO/Progs/
  GCH/Topics/20050524_2

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