Adapting to Climate Change: What Do We Know

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Adapting to Climate ChangeWhat Do We Know?

• Ben Kangasniemi
• Climate Change Section
• BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection

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Outline

• Global climate model simulations
• Limitations applications
• Downscaling to the regional level

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methods examples

• Results for South East BC
• Information sources

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How Many Global Models Are There?

• 20 global models in development
• Top 5 modeling centres
• Victoria, BC
• UK
• Germany
• Princeton, NJ
• Boulder, CO

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grids 400 km
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Natural Human Aerosols
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Biological Feedback

• Melting of permafrost may release methane from
  muskeg
• Vegetation may decline under extreme future
  climate regimes
• Ocean plankton response poorly understood

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Future Emissions???
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North America SimulationTemperature Change
Relative to Current ConditionsStarts 1990Ends
2100
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Climate Change in BC

• First Order Changes
• 5Temp (greatest in north)
• 5Precip in winter/spring, (greatest on south
  coast, more rain, less snow)

• Second Order Changes
• 5Stream temperature
• 5Spring stream flow
• 6Summer stream flow
• 6Glaciers retreat disappear in south
• 5Forest pests
• 5Stress on marginal species ecosystems
• 5Forest fires

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Cranbrook SummerTemp. Precip.ChangeAll
models emission scenarios
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Downscaling fromGlobal to Regional

• Statistical downscaling
• Increasing resolution using regional climate
  models

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Downscaling Advantages and Cautions

• Advantages
• Better resolution
• Adds effect of local land features
• Help assess impacts develop adaptation
  strategies

• Cautions
• Dependant on global model bias
• Limits the number of scenarios
• Dependant on extensive local weather observations

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Increasing Resolution with RCMs
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Western Canada Regional Model vs
GlobalTemperature Change to 2040-2049WinterRe
gional Global
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Where to get GCM model results Information on
Downscaling?

• Canada www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios
• Canada www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca
• UK www.cru.uea.ac.uk

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Summary

• Global models
• significant uncertainty
• limited local application to adaptation
• Downscaling methods will help
• Improved global and regional climate models
  coming (5-10 years)