Elections

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Chapter 9

• Elections Voters

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• Voters
• Electoral system
• Parties
• Party systems

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Today

• Elections scope franchise
• Electoral systems (i) legislatures, (ii)
  presidents
  
• Examples assessment FPTP (NZ) vs. PR (Israel,
  Netherlands, Ukraine)
  
• plus Alabama paradox gerrymandering

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Elections scope franchise

• Scope range of elected offices (e.g., US vs.
  UK)
  
• Franchise who can vote?

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Electoral systems

• How votes are translated into seats
• Votes
• Electoral system
• Seats

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Choosing the electoral system

• Two goals
• (i) Proportionality accurate/fair
  representation
  
• (ii) Efficiency choosing a government (a
  government that can govern)

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Tradeoffs

• Ideally, we would like to have the cake and eat
  it, too maximize both representation and
  efficiency
  
• Hard to achieve in practice one tends to come at
  the expense of the other
  
• Prioritize and choose accordingly

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Two types of electoral formulas

• (i) favor proportionality?
• Choose proportional representation
• (ii) favor efficiency/governability?
• Choose a majoritarian system

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Electoral systemstwo features

• District magnitude (M) of representatives
  elected in one district
  
• Formula the specific mechanism translating votes
  into seats

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Majority/plurality systems

• District magnitude M 1
• Formula
• plurality/FPTP (U.S. U.K.)
• majority-runoff (France)
• alternative vote (Australia)

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Proportional systems

• District magnitude 1
• Formula
• party list PR (Israel, W Europe)
• STV (Single Transferable Vote Ireland, Malta)

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Mixed systems

• District magnitude
• SMD tier M 1
• PR tier M 1
• Formula
• SMD tier plurality
• PR tier proportional

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Mixed systems MMM vs. MMP

• MMM the two tiers are separated overall outcome
  not proportional (Russia, Japan)
  
• MMP the two tiers are not separated overall
  outcome is proportional (Germany, NZ)

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Discussion/assessment

• Majoritarian systems who wins?
• Gerrymandering
• Proportional representation Alabama Paradox

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FPTP strengths weaknesses

• Strength its capacity to deliver a majority
  government
  
• Weakness no guarantee of turning a
  plurality/majority of votes into a majority of
  seats
  
• E.g., NZ 1978-81 USA 2000

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Advantage of plurality?

• Plurality is a giant conjuring trick, pulling the
  rabbit of majority government out of the hat of a
  divided society (HH, p. 149)

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Criticism

• From a New Zealand perspective, advocacy of the
  plurality method based on its ability to better
  dismiss unpopular governments makes a good joke
  
• Pluralitys side effect Gerrymandering

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Alabama Paradox

• Q proportional representation in the US?
• A apportionment of seats in the House
• Some unexpected and counter-intuitive results

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House Seats Apportionment

• Straightforward, right?
• If vote is D 45, R 55
• Then D 45 seats, R 55 seats
• But the devil is in the details

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Example 1

• Suppose vote is
• D 43.2, R 53.3, G 3.5
• 100 seats D 43, R 53, G 3
• Who gets the 100th seat?
• Hamilton largest remainder

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The Alabama Paradox

• An increase in the total number of seats to be
  apportioned causes a state to lose a seat
  
• 1880 new apportionment
• If House 299, Alabama gets 8
• If House 300, Alabama gets 7

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The Population Paradox

• An increase in a states population can cause it
  to lose a seat
  
• 1900 Virginia growing about 60 faster than
  Maine
  
• Virginia lost a seat, Maine gained a seat

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The New States Paradox

• Adding a new state with its fair share of seats
  can affect the number of seats due other states
  
• 1907 Oklahoma added H 386
• OK entitled to five seats H 391
• H 391 ? Maine gained a seat, New York lost one
  seat