Presentation to the Orange County Board of County Commissioners

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Central Florida Construction Industry Economic
History and Outlook
Presentation to the Orange County Board of
County Commissioners March 16, 2009
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Non-residential construction lags other economic
indicators
Economy
GROWTH
Non-residential Construction
TIME
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Architecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008-January
2009
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Commercial Real Estate LoansJanuary 2001-January
2009
Source Federal Reserve Board
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U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999
through December 2008
Source Economy.com
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Dollar Valuation of Permits Orange County Growth
Management Department
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Dollar Valuation of Permits Orange County Growth
Management Department
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Dollar Valuation of Permits Orange County Growth
Management Department
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Dollar Valuation of Permits Orange County Growth
Management Department
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Dollar Valuation of Permits Orange County Growth
Management Department
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http//www.labormarketinfo.com/library/laus.htm
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4.6
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Construction Shed 10,800 jobs in 1 year,
13.9 (these were mainly nonresidential jobs
following over a year of slowdowns in
residential)
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Orlando-Kissimmee MSA http//www.labormarketinfo.c
om/library/ep/regions/f16wr12.xls
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Orlando MSA http//www.labormarketinfo.com/library
/oes/estimates2008/q3-2008orlando.xls
Less Skills to More Skilled to Frontline Leaders
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Florida Construction Union Members 3.7
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2009
Floridas 2009 Outlook A Minor Decline? By
Scott JudySoutheast Construction Magazine,
January 2009 Floridas nonresidential sector is
now headed for a significant downturn, according
to McGraw-Hill Construction. The overall
nonresidential market is expected to be 9 lower
than last year, and is forecast to total about
12.6 billion overall. The commercial and
industrial segment will be hardest hit, the
company estimates, with a 15 decline predicted,
for a total of about 6.2 billion in new
contracts. That would compare to last years
total for this market of about 7.3 billion.
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2009
ABC FORECASTS DOWNTURN IN 2009 CONSTRUCTION
ACTIVITY December 3, 2008 ABC Chief Economist
Anirban Basu The 2009 U.S. Construction
Outlook Commercial building, such as retail and
restaurants, will be off between 10 percent and
20 percent next year in dollar terms compared to
2008. Lodging will be negatively impacted by
both a general decline in new construction
activity value put in place may decline 20
percent or more next year. Office construction
will be off between 15 percent and 25 percent in
2009... Industrial will see a sharp decline
expenditures on manufacturing-related buildings
will fall in the neighborhood of 25 percent to 35
percent next year, with declines likely to
persist into 2010. Institutional construction,
such as hospitals, prisons and schools, will
slip more than 5 percent next year in terms of
dollars expended.
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Search for TomorrowABC Chief Economist Anirban
Basu

• Stimulus, stimulus, stimulus
• This is the worst of it from a broader economic
  perspective
• Recovery for office, retail and other
  construction components being stimulated
  indirectly is probably at least two years away

• Unemployment will likely peak above 9 percent,
  perhaps much higher than that
• Washington, D.C. is still the new financial
  capital of North America.

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Building for business since 1973
Thanks! Presentation at http//www.abccentralflo
rida.com/occ.htm