Myanmar and Regional Stability: Issues and Problems

1
Myanmar and Regional Stability Issues and
Problems

• Tin Maung Maung Than
• ISEAS
• Singapore

2
Introduction

• Myanmar has a population of 56 million
• It is multi-racial (135 dialect groups) and
  multi-religious (Buddhist, Muslim, Hindu,
  Christian, Animist)
  
• British rule (1885-1948) kingdoms partial
  annexation (wars 1824, 1852)
  
• Military rule (1962-1974, Sept 1988 --)
  One-party Socialist (1974-1988 Aug)
  Parliamentary Democracy (Jan 1948-Mar 1962)
  
• Currently the State Peace Develop-ment Council
  (SPDC) holds power
  

3
Myanmar ASEAN

• Myanmar (then Burma) declined to join ASEAN
  despite overtures by founding members
  
• Apparent reasons Cold War foreign military
  bases strict neutrality
  
• Observer at 29th AMM, Jakarta, July 1996
• Formal member on 23 July 1997
• Signed ASEAN Charter at Singapore (13th) Summit
  in November 2007
  
• Ratified Charter in July 2008.

4
Contentious issues

• Engagement vs Isolation
• US EU objections to admission
• EU objections to Myanmars participation in ASEM
  and bloc ministerial meetings
  
• Human rights and pace of political reforms
  ASSKs incarceration alleged political
  repression and political prisoners AIPS and
  APMC
• ASCC ASEAN Human Rights Body
• ASC Migrants, refugees, pandemics,nuclear
  transparency
  
• AEC AFTA provision, NTBs, economic nationalism

5
Domestic Imperatives

• Regime security as national security control
  coercion
  
• Generational change in military command
• Economic political liberalization pace and
  direction
  
• National unity and ethnic issues ceasefire
  groups insurgency narcotics
  
• Impact of Cyclone Nargis (2-3 May 2008)
• Problems of building social capital, relative
  depravation
  
• Opposition politics, dissidents (labour,
  students, monks)
  
• Food insecurity high inflation overvalued (200
  X) currency
  
• Spectre of humanitarian crisis chronic emergency?

6
Political Past

• Elections held in May 1990 supervised by junta
  (SLORC)
  
• 72.6 turnout, 93 parties competed
• 6 independent s 27 parties won seats
• NLD won 81 of seats 60 of votes
• NUP won 2 of seats 25 of votes
• Only 10 parties left
• Military did not contest election
• NLDs claim for power solely based on the
  election victory interpretation of SLORCs
  ambiguous promises
  

7
Constitution Making

• National Convention tasked to formulate detailed
  basic principles of Constitution
  
• Majority of delegates are from ethnic groups
  political parties representatives are a minority
  
• Began January 1993 Formulated 104 basic
  principles and recess from March 1996 May 2004
  Concluded in September 2007.
  
• NLD walked out in November 1995.
• Drafting Commission formed on 18 October 2007
• May Referendum 2010 election target announced
  on 9 February 2008
  
• Draft Constitution announced 19 February 2008

8
Referendum

• Oppositions vote No campaign constrained by
  law and Cyclone Nargis
  
• Govts Yes campaign employed multi-media,
  GONGOs state resources
  
• Held on 10 May 2008 for areas unaffected by
  Nargis
  
• Held on 24 May in disaster zones
• 27.4 million eligible voters
• Overall turnout 98.12 advance votes 17.3
• Yes votes 92.48 (simple majority required to
  pass)
  
• Draft Constitution accepted

9
Following the Road Map (August 2003)

• Reconvening National Convention (NC) done
• Implementation of the NC process done
• Drafting Constitution with basic details approved
  through the NC done
  
• Referendum on Constitution done
• Free fair elections 2010
• Convening the parliament 2010/11?
• State leaders elected by parliament to form
  government and other organs of state power
  2010/11?

10
Controversial features in the New State
Constitution  

• The militarys complete autonomy to manage its
  own affairs
  
• Designation of the military Commander-in-Chief as
  supreme commander of all armed forces.
  
• Reserved seats for the military in the form of
  C-in-Cs nominees amounting to 25 per cent of the
  seats in all national and regional parliaments
  
• Reserved positions for the nominees of the C-in-C
  as ministers and deputy ministers for defence,
  home affairs and border areas
  
• Requirement for the powerful executive President
  to have political, administrative, economic and
  military outlook, have 20 years continuous
  domicile, and be born of full citizen parents.
  Moreover, the President, the spouse, any of the
  children or his/her spouse must not be a subject
  or citizen of a foreign country or has sworn
  allegiance to a foreign country, or enjoy the
  same privileges and benefits bestowed by the
  foreign country to its subjects and citizens.
• The President has the authority to appoint and
  dismiss ministers, deputy ministers of the
  national government as well as chief ministers of
  the (seven) states and (seven) division who are
  going to be heads of provincial governments
• Amendment of any of the major provisions in the
  constitution could only be made if it secures
  more than 75 per cent of the votes in the
  national parliament (a combined upper and lower
  house) together with more than 50 per cent votes
  of all eligible voters in a national referendum
  
• An immunity clause that protects the junta and
  all government personnel from being persecuted
  for any act carried out in the name of the state
  
• For some ethnic communities "self-administered
  areas" within States and Regions, comprising one
  "self-administered division" (organized from
  contiguous districts constituting a large area
  inhabited by a majority ethnic group with a large
  population) and five "self-administered zones"
  (organized from contiguous townships inhabited by
  a majority ethnic community though smaller in
  area and population than a division) would be
  established.
•  
• The legislature

11
Contd.

• Exemption for military personal to remain in
  service while serving as ministers and deputy
  ministers civilians have to resign from their
  positions as parliamentarians or civil servants
  or suspend their party affiliations.
• Requirement for the President to declare a
  national emergency and hand over executive,
  legislative and judicial powers to the C-in-C in
  situations in which there are attempts to usurp
  state power through insurgency, violence and
  unlawful means leading to the disintegration of
  the union and national solidarity or the loss of
  national sovereignty or there is sufficient
  reason to believe that such a situation is
  imminent

12
Contd.

• Executive President must have political,
  administrative, economic and military outlook,
  have 20 years continuous domicile, and be born of
  full citizen parents. Moreover, the President,
  the spouse, any of the children or his/her spouse
  must not be a subject or citizen of a foreign
  country or has sworn allegiance to a foreign
  country, or enjoy the same privileges and
  benefits bestowed by the foreign country to its
  subjects and citizens.
• The President has the authority to appoint and
  dismiss ministers, deputy ministers of the
  national government as well as chief ministers of
  the (seven) states and (seven) division who are
  going to be heads of provincial governments

13
Contd.

• Amendment of any of the major provisions in the
  constitution could only be made if it secures
  more than 75 per cent of the votes in the
  national parliament (a combined upper and lower
  house) together with more than 50 per cent votes
  of all eligible voters in a national referendum
  
• An immunity clause that protects the junta and
  all government personnel from being persecuted
  for any act carried out in the name of the state

14
Contrasting Visions of Democracy for Myanmar

• SPDC discipline flourishing genuine multiparty
  democracy under a unitary state structure with
  quasi-regional autonomy,
  
• NLD, expatriates, democracy lobbies, Western
  democracies liberal democracy under a federal
  state structure

15
Government Actions

• Heavy security presence on dates of
  anniversaries
  
• Pre-emptive detention and travel restrictions
  (monks laypersons)
  
• Criminal prosecution of prominent dissident
  figures using existing laws e.g., unlawful
  association treason public disorder printing,
  publishing, video and electronics acts computer
  law safeguarding the state obstruction of
  authorities in the line of duty foreign currency
  act unauthorized visiting act, etc.
• Ministerial tours to garner support providing
  economic other incentives
  
• Engaging ceasefire groups carrots sticks

16
Opposition Reactions

• Oppose the Constitution and the elections through
  declarations, demands, symbolic gestures, appeals
  to the international community and perhaps a call
  for a boycott of the elections
• Radical element believe to use violence
  (bombing)
  
• Try to bring attention of the ICC, UNSC, and
  UNCHR and impose further sanctions
  
• Armed rebels continue harassing the military

17
Whither Myanmar A Stable or Unstable Transition?

• VARIABLES
• Ceasefire groups DDR
• Economy (relative deprivation) Trade Aid
• Post-Nargis recovery
• Regional states engagement support
• US EU actions