Bull or Bear?

1
Bull or Bear?

• Samuel E. Kain
• Accredited Land Consultant
• Regional Sales Manager
• Farmers National Company

2
Iowa Land Price Review
2275
2147
1837
1801
787
Iowa State Land Survey
3
Grain Price Review
5.94
5.82
4.73
6.33
6.08
2.34
2.69
1.41
2.59
2.19
USDA Average Price Received by Iowa Farmers
4
Grain Yield Review
157 Bu
127 Bu
125 Bu
135 Bu
138 Bu
40 Bu
36.5 Bu
41.5 BU
46 Bu
32 Bu
USDA Average Iowa Yield
5
Crop Income / Land Price
2275
2147
1837
1801
787
649
530
536
538
387
6
Avg. Annual Prime / Inflation Rate
15.75
14.58
10.36
8.50
8.25
6.16
4.25
2.35
1.86
1.43
7
2275
2147
1801
1837
Land Value Crop Income
787
530
648
538
536
387
15.75
14.58
8.50
10.36
8.25
6.16
4.25
2.35
1.43
1.86
8
The inflation rate between January 1981and
January 2004 was 112.87
9
1981 Land Value x Inflation rate 2003 Land
Value2147 x 112.87 2423
10
Bull Factors

• Strong Commodity Prices
• Low Interest Rates
• Low Inflation
• Limited Supply
• Government Programs
• Genetics
• Increased Economies of Scale
• Revenue Insurance Products

11
Do you believe with

• Limited amount of land for sale
• 3.00 per bushel corn
• 10.00 per bushel beans
• Low inflation
• Low interest rates

12
That land prices will go down?
13
Definitely a Bull!