Honduras

1
Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports to CAFTADR
Countries
Dominican Republic
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Costa Rica
May 2006
2
Sustained Strong Economic GrowthHas Transformed
the CAFTADR Countries Regional economy has
almost doubled since 1990, expected to expand
another 65 by 2020
Aggregate Real GDP for CAFTADR (bil )
Source Global Insight
3
Sustained Economic Growth Is Changing the
Demographics of the CAFTADR Countries, Boosting
The Middle Class By 2020, growth of the middle
class could transform food markets, boost imports
Millions of CAFTA5 households with real PPP
incomes over 20k
By 2020, the regions primary source of growth
for U.S. exporters will be the middle class,
which will account for 40 of households in the
CAFTADR countries, up from just 24 in 2000.
CAFTA-5 is Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, and Nicaragua. Data NA for Dominican
Republic NOTE Middle class is defined as those
households with real PPP adjusted incomes
exceeding 20,000/year Source Analysis by
FAS/USDA using Global Insights Global Consumer
Markets data
4
And CAFTAs Retail Food Purchases Growth of
purchases during the next 15 years, plus improved
market access under CAFTA-DR, means new export
opportunities for U.S. food and agricultural
producers.
CAFTA-5 Real Food ExpendituresBillion
(1997100)
FTA could accelerate the regions income and food
consumption growth even further
CAFTA-5 is Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, and Nicaragua. Data NA for Dominican
Republic Source Analysis by FAS/USDA using
Global Insights Global Consumer Markets data
5
Strong Growth in CAFTADRs Food Demand is
Boosting U.S. ExportsRecord 2 Billion in
2006Export growth is broad-basedbulk and
high-value products
U.S. Agricultural Exports to CAFTADR ( million)
U.S. exports to CAFTADR are up by 200 since FY
1990, versus only 60 to the rest of the world.
Bulk Commodities
Intermediate Products
Consumer Foods
6

• Most U.S. Agricultural Exports To CAFTA-DR Have
  Grown Significantly During Past Decade
• Strong economic growth and expanding middle class
  have fueled gains in U.S. exports

U.S. Ag Exports (mil )
7
Best Export Prospects Over Next 35 YearsStrong
underlying demand growth and/or reduced
tariffsshould benefit these U.S. exports most

• Feed grains
• Rice
• Wheat
• Cheese
• Poultry meat
• High quality beef
• Pork (esp bacon and offals)
• Fruits (esp grapes, raisins, apples, pears,
  cherries, peaches, kiwi, canned fruit, juices)
• Vegetables (particularly frozen fries, fresh and
  processed tomatos)
• Nuts (almonds, walnuts, pistachios)

• Wine, bottled
• Soybean meal and refined oil
• Processed grocery products (particularly
  soups/broths, cookies and biscuits, and canned
  dog/cat food