Chapter 1 Introduction

1
Chapter 1 -- Introduction

• Real Assets
• Land
• Buildings
• Knowledge
• Machines
• Financial Assets
• Bonds
• Stocks
• Derivative Assets
• Options
• Futures

2
Financial Markets

• Consumption Timing
• In high earnings periods you invest
• In Low earnings period you withdraw
• Maximize expected utility
• How did September 11th affect the US economy?
• How did the war in Iraq affect the US economy?
• Allocation of Risk
• Allows those with the greatest tolerance for risk
  to invest in appropriate asset classes
• Asset Allocation vs. Security Selection
• Bonds, stocks, cash, real estate
• Diversification, Taxes, Income, Growth

3
Markets

• Direct Search Market
• buyers and sellers must meet
• Brokered Market
• Real Estate
• Dealer Market
• NASDAQ
• Auction Market
• NYSE
• ECNs Handle both NYSE and NASDAQ
• Real Time ECN Prices

4
Trends

• Technology
• Globalization
• ADRs
• Mutual Funds
• Direct Investment
• Financial Engineering
• Take primitive financial assets and make
  something more appealing to the customer
• bundling and unbundling

5
Agency Problems VERY Important

• Conflict between different stakeholders
• Bankruptcy stockholders/workers/bondholders
• Typically management and shareholders for
  healthy firms.
• Are these problems new?
• Why firms often offer CEOs options?
• Some people claim this makes CEOs do things with
  only a short horizon instead of long term

6
The Investing Public

• Individual Investors
• Institutional Investors
• Mutual Funds
• Open-end
• Closed-end
• Pension Funds
• Defined Contribution
• Defined Benefit
• Life Insurance Companies

7
Who Invests?
In 2000 (still the latest as of 1/2004), the NYSE
published its latest survey of share-ownership in
the United States. Results
8
Chapter 2 -- Classification of Securities

• Fixed Income
• Money Market
• Bonds
• Equities (Primary emphasis of this course)
• Preferred Stock
• Common Stock
• Derivatives
• Options
• Futures
• Swaps

9
Returns Across Asset Classes
100 Invested in 1926 in Different Assets
10
Risk and Return Across Assets
If these terms are not familiar to you, I suggest
you learn about mean, variance (standard
deviation), covariance correlation coefficient
11
Risk and Return Across Assets
Small Stocks
Large Stocks
Corp Bonds
Govt Bonds
T-Bills
Has this changed since March, 2000? Has this
changed since September, 2001?
12
Money Market Securities - Treasury Bills

• Tax Considerations
• Auction Process
• Treasury Initial Maturities of 91 and 182 days

Competitive vs. Non-competitive
13
Money Market Securities - Treasury Bills

• Bankers Discount Yield
• Bond Equivalent Yield (APR)
• Effective Annual Yield (EAY)
• EAY ?? BEY ?? BDY

14
Treasury Notes and Bonds

• Different maturities, Semi-annual coupons,
  callability
• Coupon and Principal Strips
• Quotations (32nds of Par, Bond Equivalent Yields)
• N note // ci stripped of coupon // i indexed
  for inflation

15
Other Fixed-Income Securities

• Corporate Bonds - Convertibility -- cv
  - Covenants - Secured versus unsecured
  debentures - Zero-coupon bonds -- zr
• Extensive bond listings are no longer provided in
  WSJ

16
Example Municipal Bond After-tax Yield

• Suppose short-term municipal yields are currently
  4, while comparable taxable bonds pay 5. Which
  gives you the higher after-tax yield if your tax
  bracket is 0? 10? 20? 30?
• At what tax rate would you be indifferent between
  the two bonds?
• 5(1-tax rate) 4 -- indifferent at tax rate
  20

17
Equity Capital Markets

• Common Stocks
• Ownership shares
• Residual claims
• Limited liability
• Different with every paper etc. I use yahoo

18
Other Equity Securities

• Preferred Stock
• Cumulative Dividend
• Special Tax treatment corporations 70
• Dont really worry too much about for this class
• May use if you start a business for certain
  ownership rights
• Buffet used in mid 90s with USAIR

19
Stock and Bond Market Indices

• Price-weighted Index (DJIA, Nikkei 225)
• Value-weighted Index (SP 500)
• Others Equally-weighted, geometrically-weighted,
  Bond market indices
• Can we replicate returns on an index?

20
Example Index Calculations

• What are the returns on a price-weighted, a
  value-weighted, and an equally-weighted index of
  stocks A, B, C.
• What if stock split occurs? must tell you when

21
Derivative Securities Markets

• Options Contracts
• A Call (Put) option gives the holder the right to
  purchase (sell) an asset for a specified price on
  or before a specified date
• Futures/Forwards Contracts
• dont worry about too much for this class may
  talk about at end of class
• A Futures contract obligates the holder to
  deliver an asset at a specified date for an
  agreed upon price to be paid at maturity
• Hybrid Contracts
• Index Options, Swaps

22

Chapter 3

• Markets and Trading Processes
• The Primary Market
• The Secondary Market
• NYSE, AMEX, Regional, NASDAQ, Foreign
• Trading Arrangements
• Types of orders, execution of trades, margin
  trading and short sales

23
The Primary Market

• New issues of stocks, bonds and other securities
  are marketed to the public by investment banks in
  the Primary Market.
• Initial Public Offering (IPO)
• Seasoned Offering
• Private Placement
• Shelf-Registration

24
Underwriting

• Public issues of securities are marketed to the
  public through underwriters.
• The Underwriting Process
• Select Underwriter
• Form Syndicate
• Registration Statement (Red Herring, Prospectus)
• Set Offer Price
• Stabilization (up to 10 days after offer date)
• Other Considerations
• Firm Commitment vs. Best Efforts
• Negotiated vs. Competitive bidding
• Cost is substantial
• Underwriter compensation
• Gross Spread (7.3 for IPOs, 5.4 for Seasoned
  equity issues, and 1.6 for bonds)
• Underpricing (12-18, 7, 2)
• Direct expenses (3.7, 1.7, and 0.6)
• Pecking order theory
• Have there been many IPOs lately?

25
The Secondary Market

• Definitions
• Agent versus Dealer markets
• Continuous versus Call (auction) markets
• The Third and Fourth markets
• ECNs
• Organized Exchanges vs. Over-the-Counter
• Centralized location
• Listing requirements
• Market makers
• Specialists

26
Trading in the U.S.

• The NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX are national in scope.
  
• Proportions traded by other regional exchanges
  are small
• NASDAQ double counts some trades so not exactly
  like this but close
• Below is percent of dollar volume
• (Different than share volume)
• Market Capitalization of NASDAQ is 2.8 Trillion
  and NYSE is 16 Trillion (11.7 US) what does this
  tell you ?

27
NYSE Listing Requirements

• Listed firms must also meet continued listing
  requirements
• Current NYSE Listing requirements
• Dont worry about exact numbers There are
  exceptions that make the rules not worth
  knowing

28
NYSE-Listed Firms

• At the end of 2002 there were fewer companies
• 448 foreign companies had securities listed on
  the NYSE

29
The NYSE Specialist

• Functions
• Provide Price Continuity and Stabilization
• Process Information
• Supply Immediacy (trader of last resort)
• Agent and Dealer Roles
• Obligations To provide a fair and orderly
  market
• Rights Exclusive market maker and Access to the
  limit order book
• Trading Restrictions
• Trades behind public orders

30
Specialist Profits

• Commissions
• on agency trades only (not dealer trades)
• commissions are a small part of specialist
  revenues
• Bid-Ask spread
• Returns on Inventory Positions
• Empirical Research
• Sofianos - spread revenues and position losses
• Hasbrouck/Sofianos and Madhavan/Smidt -
  specialists appear to make short-term trading
  profits

31
The Over-the-Counter (OTC) Market

• Self regulated by the National Association of
  Securities Dealers (NASD)
• The NASD owns and operates its own automated
  quotation system (NASDAQ)
• Markets at the end of 2000 and 2001
• National Market System (What you think of as
  NASDAQ.) 3827gt 3351
• Small Cap 907 gt 758
• Total Market Capitalization
• 3.6 Trillion to 2.8 trillion (then NASDAQ was at
  1950)

32
NASDAQ Characteristics

• A decentralized, electronically linked market
• Multiple market makers
• Different than the NYSE -- it is a decentralized
  dealer market -- harder to control and regulate
• Imperfect coordination between dealers
• 1996 try for more disclosure
• display all limit orders
• make public best quotes (dont pay for order
  flow)
• reveal the size of best customer limit orders

33
NASDAQ Listing Requirements
34
Types of Orders

• Market Order
• Limit Order
• Stop-loss (Stop-buy) Order
• Buying on Margin
• Short Sale

35
Order Qualifications

• Day Orders
• Good-till-canceled Orders
• Fill or Kill (FOK) --immediate execution of whole
  order -- no NASDAQ
• Immediate or Cancel (IOC) -- immediate execution
  but accept partial order
• All or None (AON) -- most likely to use in real
  world -- 200 shares or greater with limit
• Market-on-Close/Open

36
The Costs of Trading

• Commissions
• Brokers charge commissions in return for services
  such as security analysis, investment advice,
  deposit for securities, and access to trading.
• Bid-Ask Spread
• What factors typically affect the spread?
• How do spreads compare across exchanges?

37
Margin Trading

• Margin is the capital put up by investors when
  using credit from their broker to buy securities.
• Call loan rate
• Initial vs. Maintenance Margins
• Minimum initial margins are set by the Federal
  Reserve, they are currently 50.
• Equity is the Market Value of the Position less
  the amount of the loan.

38
Margin Trading Example

• Assume an initial margin requirement of 55 and
  maintenance margin of 40. An investor has
  5,500 in cash and wishes to purchase ABC stock.
  ABC is currently trading at 100 per share.
• Choices (1) buy 55 shares (2) buy 100 shares
  on marginPrice is either good -- 120 or bad --
  80 at the end
• Ret (TV1-TV0)/(TV0-borrowed)
• Good -- just equity -- (6600-5500)/(5500-0)20
• Good -- margin -- (12000-10000)/(10000-4500)36.3
  6
• Magnification factor is 1/.5536.36/20
• Bad is just opposite sign

39
Margin Example Continued

• At what price will you receive a Margin Call from
  your broker?Mm(sharesP-borrowed
  money)/sharesP0.4(100P-4500)/100P gtgt P75
• How does this example change if your broker
  charges a call loan rate of 10?
• Just subtract interest payment (will assume 1
  year here)
• (12000-10000-4500.1)/550029.82

40
Short-Sales

• Short sales allow investors to profit from a
  decline in security price by selling a security
  borrowed from another investor.
• SEC Rules
• short sales must be identified to the exchange
• margin accounts are marked-to-market each day
• subject to the Tick Test Rule

41
Short-Sale Example

• You are bearish on ATT. The current market price
  is 50 per share and you anticipate selling short
  100 shares.
• How much cash and securities must you put into
  your brokerage account if the initial margin is
  50?
• 50 100 shares 50/share 2500
• How high can the price go before you get a margin
  call if the maintenance margin is 30?
• .3 (7500-100P)/100P 57.7

42
Circuit Breakers

• Trading Halts
• NASDAQ?
• NYSE
• Started after 1987 market crash
• Reviewed after 1997 market volatility
• End of 2001 gt 180 point move no index arbitrage
• program trading
• 10 - Halt of 1 hour before 2pm
• 20 - Halt of 2 hours before 1pm
• 30 - Halt for day

43
Chapter 4 -- Mutual Funds

• Investment Companies (financial intermediaries)
• Collect Funds from individuals
• Defined contribution vs. Defined Benefit
• Invest in wide range of securities
• Corporate Bonds Bond Quality
• Money Market
• Real Estate Commercial, Resid -- Mixed
• Equities, Index, special sector, value
• Yahoo Mutual Fund Center

44
Services of Investment Companies

• Administration and Record Keeping
• Diversification and Divisibility
• Professional Management
• Reduced Transaction Costs
• Usually small (250 to 3000 dollar minimum
  investment -- less for retirement accounts)
• Most of you will have a choice of mutual funds to
  invest in for your retirement account
• It will probably be or was the first investment
  for many of you

45
Types of Investment Companies

• Unmanaged -- Unit Investment Trusts
• Managed -- Closed End Funds
• Can sell at a discount or premium
• Managed -- Open End Funds
• Always sell at NAV
• NAV Cash and Securities minus Liabilities Total
  Number of Shares

46
Closed End Funds

• Number of Shares is Fixed
• Traded on Secondary Markets -- Just like other
  equities
• Prices can and do differ from NAV
• If traded at premium -- usually do to hard to
  invest countries (Middle East, Africa, Asia)
• Most traded at a discount
• Why might an investor choose closed end over open
  end?

47
Open Ended Funds

• Shares issued and redeemed directly from
  investment Company
• Shares are bought and sold at NAV but may have
  sales commission
• Values Change Daily
• Number of Shares Change Daily
• ETFs are like mutual funds but they trade during
  the day

48
Mutual Fund Fees (Open-End)

• Front-End -- Less than 8.5
• Back-End -- Start at 5 to 6 and can decrease
  over time
• Operating Fees are deducted from assets
• Operating Fees
• Usually shown as of Assets each year
• 12b-1 fees
• SEC rule that allows funds to charge investors
  for distribution costs (Advertising, Annual
  Report, Commissions)

49
Professional Management

• Most professionally managed mutual funds do worse
  than the index they represent by the amount of
  transaction costs
• Professionally managed funds tend to outperform
  indices for foreign mutual funds Why?
• Most investment companies charge less than 2 per
  year -- however 2 per year for many years can be
  very substantial
• Assume 12 return
• Assume 30 years till retirement
• Value of 1 dollar at 10 annual return is 17.45
• Value of 1 dollar at 12 annual return is 29.96

50
Why Invest?

• Primarily -- low transaction costs
• Can Choose passive index mutual funds that charge
  0.3 - 0.5 management fee
• Think segment will do better over a period of
  time -- but not sure which company
• Efficient markets and most finance professors
  believe this is dangerous and should not bet on
  one sector over another
• energy
• health care
• technology

51
Other Things to Consider

• Bad performance persists more than good
  performance
• Be careful of front end loads
• Tax Efficiency of Mutual Funds
• if in a retirement account -- Dont care
• if in a taxable -- you care -- prefer they do not
  turn over a portfolio much -- you have to pay
  taxes!!!!!

52
Information

• Generally available at any library
• Most annual reports and prospectus available on
  line
• Morningstar -- Mutual Fund Source Book
• http//morningstar.com
• Mutual Fund Education Center
• http//www.mfea.com/
• Brills Mutual Fund
• http//www.brill.com/

53
Constraints

• Liquidity -- How soon you might need the money --
  generally, the more liquidity you need, the less
  risk you can take
• Financial assets tend to be much more liquid than
  real assets
• Longer the horizon, the greater the risk you may
  be able to take
• Unique Needs
• if you worked for Boeing, would you want your
  retirement fund or your other investments in
  aerospace defense stocks?
• Tax Deferred Retirement Plan
• IRA
• 401(k)
• Roth IRA
• Very confusing????

54
Chapter 11 Framework of Analysis

• Fundamental Analysis
• Approach to Fundamental Analysis
• Domestic and global economic analysis
• Has changed significantly 70s, 80s, 90s today
• Industry analysis
• Hard to compare across different industries
• Grocery stores Vs Aerospace
• Company analysis
• Top-down Vs Bottom-up approach
• (personal bias for Top-down)
• Top-Down Start with world and work down to
  companies
• Bottom-up Start with companies then try and
  understand how state of world might affect them

55
Global Economic Considerations

• Performance in countries and regions is highly
  variable
• Political risk
• Middle east
• Emerging markets in Asia
• Maybe not followed that closely in the 1990s or
  at least thought of as a local problem as
  opposed to global
• Exchange rate risk
• Sales
• Profits
• Stock returns

56
Key Economic Variables

• Gross domestic product
• Unemployment rates
• Think obvious and also impacts consumer sentiment
• What were people talking about two or three years
  ago
• Interest rates inflation
• Ability to borrow and general risk to economy
• International measures/exchange rates
• Can be important even if small amount of sales
  overseas-- Boeing
• Consumer sentiment
• Watched much more closely than it used to be
• Current recession vs. past recessions?

57
Federal Government Policy

• Fiscal Policy - government spending and taxing
  actions -- Mostly impact demand
• Direct policy
• Slowly implemented
• Argument that by the time the impact is felt it
  is already too late?????
• Can stimulate or slow the economy
• What are Bush and the Congress trying to do now
  -- how?

58
Federal Government Policy

• Monetary Policy - manipulation of the money
  supply to influence economic activity -- 14 year
  terms (Board)
• Initial feedback effects
• Tools of monetary policy
• Open market operations
• Buy put money into economy sell take out
• Discount rate
• Reduce discount rate makes it easier
  (theoretically) for companies to borrow
• True today?
• Reserve requirements
• May change to improve liquidity but can be
  dangerous

59
Demand and Supply Shocks

• Demand shock - an event that affects demand for
  goods and services in the economy
• Tax rate cut
• Increases in government spending
• Supply shock - an event that influences
  production capacity or production costs
• Commodity price changes
• oil or electricity in the last year
• Educational level of economic participants
• Could argue corporate tax cuts

60
Business Cycles

• Business Cycle
• Peak -- Entering recession. Defensive industries
  that are not sensitive to economic conditions
  should do well (food producers, tobacco
  companies, public utilities, pharmaceutical
  companies).
• Trough -- Economic recovery begins. Cyclical
  industries that are sensitive to the economy
  should do well (autos, washing machines, etc).
• Industry relationship to business cycles
• Cyclical - Cars
• Defensive Sin/Consumer Staples

61
NBER Cyclical Indicators

• Leading Indicators - tend to rise and fall in
  advance of the economy Yahoo Link
• Examples
• Stock Prices
• Housing???
• Machine Orders????
• Coincident Indicators - indicators that tend to
  change directly with the economy
• Examples
• Industrial production
• Manufacturing and trade sales
• Lagging Indicators - indicators that tend to
  follow the lag economic performance
• Examples
• Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding
  to personal income
• Inventories
• Credit Outstanding to Personal Income

62
Industry Analysis

• Sensitivity to business cycles
• Factors affecting sensitivity of earnings to
  business cycles
• Sensitivity of sales of the firms product to the
  business cycles
• Operating leverage
• Financial leverage
• What happened to the airlines after September 11,
  2001?
• Industry life cycles

63
Industry Life Cycles

• Stage Sales Growth
• Start-up Rapid Increasing
• Consolidation Stable
• Maturity Slowing
• Relative Decline Minimal or Negative

64
Industry/Firm Life Cycle
Sales
Rapid and Increasing Growth
Stable Growth
Slowing Growth
Minimal or Negative Growth
Age
Start Up
Consolidation
Maturity
Relative Decline
65
Industry/Firm Life Cycle

• Start Up - New technology, high risk, high
  growth.
• Consolidation - Survivors are more stable, market
  share is more predictable, still grow faster than
  the overall economy.
• Maturity - Product reaches full potential, growth
  tracks growth in economy, price competition.Cash
  Cows - stable cash flows but little opportunity
  for expansion.
• Decline - Slow or no growth, competition or
  obsolete product.

66
Chapter 12 Fundamental Stock Analysis Models
of Equity Valuation

• Basic Types of Models
• Balance Sheet Models
• Dividend Discount Models
• Price/Earning Ratios
• Estimating Growth Rates and Opportunities

67
Intrinsic Value and Market Price

• Intrinsic Value (IV) True Value?
• Self assigned Value
• Variety of models are used for estimation
• Market Price
• Consensus value of all potential traders
• Trading Signal
• IV gt MP Buy
• IV lt MP Sell or Short Sell
• IV MP Hold or Fairly Priced

68
Dividend Discount ModelsGeneral Model

• V0 Value of Stock
• Dt Dividend
• k required return

69
No Growth Model Example
No Growth Model
Stocks that have earnings and dividends that are
expected to remain constant Preferred Stock

• E1 D1 5.00
• k .15
• V0 5.00 / .15 33.33

70
Constant Growth Model g constant
perpetual growth rate Example

• E1 5.00 b 40 k 15
• (1-b) 60 D1 3.00 g 8
• V0 3.00 / (.15 - .08) 42.86

71
Estimating Dividend Growth Rates

• g growth rate in dividends
• ROE Return on Equity for the firm
• b plowback or retention percentage rate
• (1- dividend payout percentage rate)

72
Partitioning Value Growth and No Growth
Components

• PVGO Present Value of Growth Opportunities
• E1 Earnings Per Share for period 1

73
Partitioning Value Example

• ROE 20 d 60 b 40
• E1 5.00 D1 3.00 k 15
• g .20 x .40 .08 or 8

Vo value with growth NGVo no growth component
value PVGO Present Value of Growth Opportunities
74
Price Earnings Ratios

• P/E Ratios are a function of two factors
• Required Rates of Return (k)
• Expected growth in Dividends
• Uses
• Relative valuation
• Extensive Use in industry

75
P/E Ratio No Expected Growth

• E1 - expected earnings for next year
• E1 is equal to D1 under no growth
• k - required rate of return

76
P/E Ratio with Constant Growth

• b retention ratio
• ROE Return on Equity

77
Numerical Example No Growth

• E0 2.50 g 0 k 12.5
• P0 D/k 2.50/.125 20.00
• P/E 1/k 1/.125 8

78
Numerical Example with Growth

• b 60 ROE 15 (1-b) 40
• E1 2.50 (1 (.6)(.15)) 2.73
• D1 2.73 (1-.6) 1.09
• k 12.5 g 9
• P0 1.09/(.125-.09) 31.14
• P/E 31.14/2.73 11.4
• P/E (1 - .60) / (.125 - .09) 11.4

79
P/E Analysis

• Pitfalls
• Use of accounting earnings
• Historical costs
• May not reflect economic earnings
• Reported earnings fluctuate around the business
  cycle
• Things to think about
• We can also obtain a price estimate by
  multiplying projected earnings by a forecast of
  the price/earnings multiple (P/E).
• Consider two firms from a previous exampleThe
  firm with good growth opportunities (and b.6)
  was worth P200, or P/E 200/5 40.The firm
  with no growth opportunities was worth P50, or
  P/E 50/5 10.
• The Result P/E multiples can be good indicators
  of growth opportunities.

80
Inflation and Equity Valuation

• Inflation has an impact on equity valuations
• Historical costs underestimate economic costs
• Empirical research shows that inflation has an
  adverse effect on equity values
• Research shows that real rates of return are
  lower with high rates of inflation
• Shocks cause expectation of lower earnings by
  market participants
• Returns are viewed as being riskier with higher
  rates of inflation
• Real dividends are lower because of taxes

81
Chapter 13 Firm-Specific analysis -

• How do we choose stock within an industry?
• Equity Value Definitions
• Book Value - The net worth of the firm as shown
  on the balance sheet
• Liquidation Value - The value of the firm if
  broken up and sold off (after paying off all
  obligations). This may provide a floor for the
  stock price.
• Replacement Cost - Cost to replace all assets
  less the value of liabilities.Tobins Q
  Market Price / Replacement Cost

82
Firm Specific Analysis

• In order to determine the value of a company, we
  must move away from the balance sheet and
  actually forecast cash flows.
• Once we have cash flow forecasts, we can use
  models such as the Dividend Discount Model or
  Price to Earnings multiples to estimate firm
  value.
• Comparing our estimate of value to the current
  market price tells us whether we should invest in
  the security.Market Value - The price at which
  a security is currently trading.Intrinsic Value
  - The firm or the present value of expected
  future cash flows. This represents the value of
  the firm as an ongoing concern.

83
Financial Statements

• Balance Sheet Income Statement
• Common Sized -- vertical analysis
• Trend or Indexed -- horizontal analysis
• Common sized simply puts everything in a
  percentage and allows comparison from year to
  year -- all expenses add up to 100
• Trend Looks at percentage increase and decrease
  from year to year hard to compare with other firms

84
Ratio Analysis

• Purpose of Ratio Analysis
• Uses
• Trend analysis
• Comparative analysis
• Combination
• Use by External Analysts
• Important information for investment community
• Important for credit markets

85
Type of Financial Ratios

• Liquidity Ratios
• Activity or Mgmt Efficiency Ratios
• Leverage Ratios
• Profitability Ratios
• Market Price Ratios

86
Comparability Problems

• Accounting Differences
• Inventory Valuation
• Depreciation
• Inflation
• International Accounting Conventions
• After we go through the theory models we will go
  back to securities analysis and work on some
  regressions.

87
P/B Analysis - ROE decomposition

• Are all ROEs created equal?
• Two Breakdowns
• DuPont
• ROE NI / Equity
• ROE NI/EBTEBT/EBITEBIT/SalesSales/AssetsAsse
  ts/Equity
• Which tend to matter most?

interest burden
operating margin
asset turnover
tax burden
leverage (1D/E)
88
P/E Analysis - PEG ratio

• A simple control is to divide P/E ratio by
  earnings growth rate.
• I took 1 year average forecast of earnings
• Yahoo uses five year forecast of earnings
• The Motley Fools say
• PEG 0-0.5 BUY PEG 0.5 - 0.65 WEAK BUY
• PEG 0.65 - 1.00 HOLD PEG gt 1.00 SELL

89
Examples with PEG P/E ratiosReturns are from
Oct 01 to Oct 02
90
Examples with PEG P/E ratiosReturns are from
Oct 02 to Oct 03
91
Conclusions

• Bottom line, its tough to tell (not withstanding
  my data problems)
• did not control for earning growth beyond t1
• did not do relative valuation against other
  sectors
• perhaps whole sector is overvalued...
• Best when performed on a lot of firms over time
• hold other factors constant as well
• market capitalization
• institutional ownership
• average trading volume
• these may control for liquidity premiums
• other risk-premiums unique from beta
• we would like to find a big, liquid, value stock,
  with high growth, high payout, and low risk ---
  good luck

92
Dow Dividend Strategies

• Dogs of the Dow
• Sort by d/P
• Invest in top 10 yielding stocks each year
• Rebalance annually
• Strategy from 1973 -1994 yielded 17.23 vs.
  11.19
• Dow Five (OHiggins)
• Invest in lowest five priced stocks stocks each
  year
• Strategy from 1973-1994 yielded 21.1 vs 11.19
• Foolish Four (Motley Fools)
• Throw out the least expensive Dow component
• Invest 40 in 2, and 20 each in the remaining
  three
• Strategy yielded 25.2 vs. 11.19 from 1973 - 1994

93
Investing

• Many people have more pain from loses than
  happiness they get from gains
• specify objectives
• identify constraints
• formulate policy
• monitor performance
• reevaluate and modify portfolio as determined
  from monitoring
• Check out your own funds
• Dont do anything until you know the tax
  implications

94
Chapter 5Interest Rates

• Supply
• Households
• Provide capital
• Most companies do not have large amounts of cash
  like Microsoft
• Demand
• Businesses
• Typically need investment established companies
  used bonds
• Governments Net Supply and/or Demand
• Federal Reserve Actions
• What is one of the things that is currently being
  discussed by the Democratic candidates with
  respect to supply and demand?

95
Real vs. Nominal Rates

• Fisher effect Approximation
• nominal rate real rate inflation premium
• R r i or r R - i
• Example r 3, i 6
• R 9 3 6 or 3 9 - 6
• Fisher effect Exact
• r (R - i) / (1 i)
• 2.83 (9-6) / (1.06)
• Empirical Relationship
• Inflation and interest rates move closely
  together
• Important for Risk Premiums

96
Probability Distributions

• 1) Mean most likely value µ or E(r)
• 2) Variance or standard deviation
• 1s 68.3 should be between µ /- s
• 2s 95.4
  
• 3s 99.7
  
• 3) Skewness
• If a distribution is approximately normal, the
  distribution is described by characteristics 1
  and 2
• We assume this at times such as portfolio theory
  even though it is not true. Returns may be
  normal for short time periods with a steady
  drift.
• Stocks can only decrease by 100 but can go up by
  more hence equity returns are skewed right.

97
Measuring Mean Scenario or Subjective Returns
Subjective returns
p(s) probability of a state r(s) return if a
state occurs 1 to s states
98
Measuring Mean Scenario or Subjective Returns
State Prob. of State r in State 1 --
bad .1 -.05 2 -- ok .2 .05 3 -- good .4 .15 4
-- very good .2 .25 5 -- great .1 .35
E(r) (.1)(-.05) (.2)(.05)... (.1)(.35) E(r)
.15 What type of distribution here? What is the
E(r) without even doing the calculation?
99
Measuring Variance or Dispersion of Returns

• Subjective or Scenario

Standard deviation variance1/2
Using Our Example
Var (.1)(-.05-.15)2(.2)(.05- .15)2...
.1(.35-.15)2 Var .01199 S.D. .01199 1/2
.1095 10.95
100
Annual Holding Period Returns1926-2001

• Ann Ann
• Series Avg Dev.
• Lg Stk 10.5 20.3
• Sm Stk 12.2 39.3
• LT Gov 5.23 8.18
• T-Bills 3.80 3.25
• Inflation 3.06 4.40
• Avg return is for geometric

101
Annual Holding Period Risk Premiums and Real
Returns1926-1999

• Risk Real
• Series Premiums Returns
• Lg Stk 9.3 9.9
• Sm Stk - ? 15.0 15.6
• LT Gov 1.5 2.2
• T-Bills --- 0.6
• Inflation --- ---
• Real returns are minus inflation
• Risk Premiums are minus short term risk free or
  T-Bills

102
Risk - Uncertain Outcomes
W1 150 Profit 50
p .6
W 100
1-p .4
W2 80 Profit -20
E(W) pW1 (1-p)W2 .6 (150) .4(80)
122 s2 pW1 - E(W)2 (1-p) W2 - E(W)2 .6
(150-122)2 .4(80-122)2 1,176 s 34.293
103
Risky Investments with Risk-Free Investment
W1 150 Profit 50
p .6
Risky Inv.
1-p .4
W2 80 Profit -20
100
Risk Free T-bills
Profit 5
Risk Premium 17
104
Risk Aversion Utility

• Investors view of risk
• Risk Averse
• Risk Neutral
• Risk Seeking
• Utility
• Utility Function
• U E ( r ) - .005 A s 2
• A measures the degree of risk aversion

105
Risk Aversion and Value Using the Sample
Investment

• U E ( r ) - .005 A s 2
• 22 - .005 A (34) 2
• Risk Aversion A Value
• High 5 -6.90
• 3 4.66
• Low 1 16.22

T-bill 5
106
Dominance Principle
107
Utility and Indifference Curves

• Represent an investors willingness to trade-off
  return and risk
• Example - here A4
• Exp Ret St Deviation UE ( r ) - .005As2
• 10 20.0 2
• 15 25.5 2
• 20 30.0 2
• 25 33.9 2

108
Indifference Curves
109
Expected Return

• Rule 1 The return for an asset is the
  probability weighted average return in all
  scenarios.
• Rule 2 The variance of an assets return is the
  expected value of the squared deviations from the
  expected return.

Variance of Return
110
Return on a Portfolio

• Rule 3 The rate of return on a portfolio is a
  weighted average of the rates of return of each
  asset comprising the portfolio, with the
  portfolio proportions as weights.
• rp W1r1 W2r2
• W1 Proportion of funds in Security 1
• W2 Proportion of funds in Security 2
• r1 Expected return on Security 1
• r2 Expected return on Security 2

111

• Rule 4 When a risky asset is combined with a
  risk-free asset, the portfolio standard deviation
  equals the risky assets standard deviation
  multiplied by the portfolio proportion invested
  in the risky asset.
• Rule 5 When two risky assets with variances s12
  and s22, respectively, are combined into a
  portfolio with portfolio weights w1 and w2,
  respectively, the portfolio variance is given by
• ?p2 w12?12 w22?22 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2)
• Cov(r1r2) Covariance of returns for Security 1
  and Security 2
• Cov(r1r2) r 12 ? 1 ? 2

112
Chapter 6 Allocating Capital Between Risky
Risk Free Assets

• Possible to split investment funds between safe
  and risky assets
• Risk free asset proxy T-bills
• Risky asset stock (or a portfolio)
• Examine risk/ return tradeoff
• Demonstrate how different degrees of risk
  aversion will affect allocations between risky
  and risk free assets

113
Example
114
Possible Combinations
115
Variance on the Possible Combined Portfolios

s
s
?
?
?
116
Using Leverage with Capital Allocation Line

• Borrow at the Risk-Free Rate and invest in stock
• Using 50 Leverage
• rc (-.5) (.07) (1.5) (.15) .19
• ?c (1.5) (.22) .33

117
CAL (Capital Allocation Line)
118
Risk Aversion and Allocation

• Greater levels of risk aversion lead to larger
  proportions of the risk free rate
• Lower levels of risk aversion lead to larger
  proportions of the portfolio of risky assets
• Willingness to accept high levels of risk for
  high levels of returns would result in leveraged
  combinations

119
CAL with Risk Preferences
120
CAL with Higher Borrowing Rate
121
Risk Reduction with Diversification
How many equities to approach market risk and
get rid of non-systematic (unique risk)?
122
Covariance
? p2 w12 ? 12 w22 ? 22 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2)
Cov(r1r2) r 12 ? 1 ? 2
r1,2 Correlation coefficient of
returns
? 1 Standard deviation of returns for
Security 1 ? 2 Standard deviation of
returns for Security 2
123
Correlation Coefficients Possible Values
Range of values for ?1,2
1.0 gt ???? gt ?-1.0
If ?? 1.0, the securities would be perfectly
positively correlated If ?? - 1.0, the
securities would be perfectly negatively
correlated
124
Three-Security Portfolio
rp W1r1 W2r2 W3r3
?2p W12 ? 12
W22 ? ??
W32?32
2W1W2
Cov(r1r2)
Cov(r1r3)
2W1W3
Cov(r2r3)
2W2W3
125
In General, For an n-Security Portfolio
rp Weighted average of the n securities
?p2 (Consider all pairwise
covariance measures)
Setting up a variance covariance matrix
126
Minimum-Variance Combination You do not need to
know this formula for the quiz but you will have
to calculate the MVP graphically
1
??2
- Cov(r1r2)
2

W1
??2
??2
- 2Cov(r1r2)

1
2
W2
(1 - W1)
127
The Risky Portfolio

• Note the book has standard deviation on the
  vertical axis I prefer horizontal to stay
  consistent.
• Consider the following examples of portfolio
  expected returns and riskCase A Perfectly
  POSITIVELY Correlated Returns

E(R)
E(R)
128
The Risky Portfolio

• Case B Perfectly NEGATIVELY Correlated Returns

E(R)
R
129
The Risky Portfolio

• Case C Returns that are not Perfectly
  Correlated

E(R)
R
130
Two-Security Portfolios withDifferent
Correlations
131
Portfolio Risk/Return Two Securities Correlation
Effects

• Relationship depends on correlation coefficient
• -1.0 lt ? lt 1.0
• The smaller the correlation, the greater the risk
  reduction potential
• If??? 1.0, no risk reduction is possible

132
Extending Concepts to All Securities

• The optimal combinations result in lowest level
  of risk for a given return
• The optimal trade-off is described as the
  efficient frontier
• These portfolios are dominant

133
The Minimum-Variance Frontierof Risky Assets
134
Extending to Include Riskless Asset

• The optimal combination becomes linear
• A single combination of risky and riskless assets
  will dominate
• History
• Started with just returns and dominance
• Then one risky asset and one risk free asset
• SP 500 and Rf
• Then talked about two risk assets
• SP500 and Bonds
• Then two risky assets and risk free
• Now multiple risky assets and risk free
• Multiple assets ? get market portfolio will
  argue later what is the market portfolio

135
Alternative CALs
136
Portfolio Selection Risk Aversion
137
Efficient Frontier with Lending Borrowing
138
Models- Chapter 7Math gets nasty I will try
and help you with what things mathematical
representations are important and what are not

• Capital Asset Pricing Model
• Passive Indexing Strategies
• Expected Returns and Betas
• Security Market Line
• CAPM and Market Models
• Statistical Implementation
• Security Characteristic Line
• Arbitrage Pricing Theory
• Concept of Arbitrage
• CAPM vs APT

139
1. Capital Asset Pricing Model

• The CAPM is a centerpiece of modern finance that
  gives predictions about the relationship between
  risk expected return
• Based on original work on portfolio theory of
  Harry Markowitz by Nobel laureate William Sharpe
  John Lintner in 1965 - chapters 6-8
• Begins with simplistic assumptions for
  hypothetical world of investors and builds into
  reasonable comprehensive model

140
Assumptions - Can these be relaxed???

• Trades of individual investors do not affect
  prices
• Carl Icon
• Risk-averse utility-maximizing investors
• Some people live for risk
• One-period investment horizon (myopic)
• We are not!
• Fixed quantities of assets and all marketable
• IPOs
• No taxes, transactions costs, regulations, etc
• There are and you know my views
• Homogeneous Expectations - All investors analyze
  securities in same way with same probabilistic
  forecasts for each
• We do not agree for every buyer there is a
  seller

141
Implications

• All investors choose to hold the market portfolio
• Know it is not true many investors try and time
  markets
• The market portfolio is on the efficient frontier
• Probably true but impossible to define
• The Capital Market Line is the best attainable
  Capital Allocation Line
• True for most of us
• The Risk Premium on individual assets will be
  proportional to the risk premium on the market
  and the beta of the security (with the market). -
  Just like Chapter 8 - but with beta

142
Investors hold Market Portfolio

• All investors will identify same optimal risky
  portfolio, M to combine with riskless asset
• For supply/demand to clear, the holdings of each
  security will be by relative market value
  outstanding
• M Market portfolio

MMarket SP500? Wilshire 5000? World Equity
Index?
143
Passive Indexing is Efficient

• Market portfolio must be on efficient frontier
  and it is tangent point for the best feasible
  capital allocation line
• Mutual Fund Theorem Rational investors will
  passively hold an equity index fund a money
  market fund

Capital Market Line
M
144
Equilibrium Expected Returns

• CAPM is built on insight that appropriate risk
  premium on an asset is determined by contribution
  to risk of investors overall portfolio, i.e.
  portfolio risk is what matters
• Market price of risk or
  is the benchmark tradeoff for risk return,
  because all investors holdings are on CML --
  Sometimes you see it divided by variance as well
  as standard deviation (Can use Standard Deviation
  or Variance
• How does any individual security contribute to
  the risk (and return) of a well-diversified
  portfolio like the market portfolio?

145
Expected Return/Beta Relation

• The relevant measure of risk is a securitys
  return covariance with that of market
• Beta is the measure of covariance risk
• Suppose historical risk premium for SP 500 index
  is 8 with std dev of 22.
• What is risk premium of Ford stock with beta of
  1.10? GM with beta of 1.25?
• Ford 1.10.088.8, GM1.250.0810
• What about portfolio of 50 Ford and 50 GM?
• Could multiply out or just half way between 9.4

146
Security Market Line
A
SML
M
If a security plots off the Security Market Line,
its expected return is different from its fair
return, or it is misplaced. May be true for
small periods of time
147
CAPM Example

• Two professional money managers are being
  evaluated. One averaged 19 last year and the
  other managed only 16. However, the first
  managers beta was 1.3 and the second manager had
  a beta of 1.0.
• Which manager performed better?
• If the market risk premium were 8 and Tbills
  were yielding 6, which is better?
• What if market risk premium is 12 and Tbills
  yield 3?

148
Example Numbers
149
Picture of Example
150
2. CAPM and the Market Model

• Alphas and betas are measured statistically using
  historical returns on the security and the market
  portfolio proxy, e.g. SP 500
• Simple regression model, known as Market Model,
  is used (in excess returns)
• Statistically, beta measures the sensitivity of
  changes in securitys return to changes in market
  portfolio proxys return
• Sound like CAPM beta? What about alpha?

151
Security Characteristic Line
BetaSlope
AlphaIntercept
R-squared measures proportion of total variation
in securitys return explained by its
relationship to the market portfolio, or how
well SCL describes XYscatterplot of points
152
The CAPM Beta

• How does any individual security contribute to
  the risk of a well-diversified portfolio like
  RM?
• What is the Beta of the Market Portfolio?
• Note that if the SML holds for individual
  securities it also holds for portfolios. What is
  ?P?

153
Estimating Betas

• Alternatives 1 Excess, 2 total
• (1)
• (2)
• Alphas and betas are measured statistically using
  historical returns on the security and the market
  portfolio proxy, e.g. SP 500
• Statistically, beta measures the sensitivity of
  changes in securitys return to changes in market
  portfolio proxys return.
• Model 1 is typically employed in tests of the
  CAPM
• Model 2 is used by many especially when the risk
  free is so low

154
Estimating Beta - 2 years of weekly data
Weekly returns of MSFT on SP500
Weekly returns of DD on SP500
155
Estimating Beta
Weekly returns of VFINX on SP500
Weekly returns of VUSTX on SP500
156
Beta Estimation - continued

• DD regression
• RDD -0.0008 0.8620RSP500 R20.1546
• t-stat 4.32
• MSFT regression
• RMSFT 0.00579 1.2734RSP500 R20.3515
• t-stat 7.43
• VFINX regression (Vanguard 500)
• RVFINX -0.0002 0.9799RSP500 R20. 9811
• t-stat 72.95
• VUSTX regression (Vanguard Long Bonds)
• RVUSTX -0.0012 0.0569RSP500 R20.0127
• t-stat 1.15

157
Using the models

• Models employ ex-post returns
• CAPM is a statement about ex-ante returns
• If CAPM is true, the expected value of alpha0
  from excess return model (1)
• from market model regressions, we expect the
  average alpha 0.
• Most early studies show this to be true, Jensen
  (1968)
• But Black, Jensen, Scholes (1972) and Fama and
  MacBeth (1972) find alpha gt 0.
• Implication ??

158
Is Beta/CAPM Dead? Chapter 8 preview

• With Sharpes 1964 development, the popularity of
  CAPM took off because of simplicity and powerful
  predictability
• Many critiques challenged premise of systematic
  risk as only factor that differentiates average
  returns of assets
• Roll Critique of 1979 and market proxy
• Fama and French in 1992 uncovered new evidence
  about beta and book/market ratio

159
CAPM and Beta
Common Sense Riskier assets must provide a
higher expected return ? CAPM attempt to
answer these questions! But How well does
the CAPM fulfill this task?
how should risk be measured?
which type of risk is priced in the market?
160

• DEFINITION OF RISK
• Conventional ApproachRisk Chance that actual
  investment outcomes differ from expected outcome
• But Positive outcomes are not unfavorable!
• However, if outcomes are symmetric the Variance
  should work as a measure of risk

161
Average Monthly Returns vs. Beta (1963 - 1990)
162
BETAS DEATH
163
The Grundy and Malkiel Study (Dont worry about
name.)

• time frame 1968 -1992, declining market periods
  with flexible duration
• do a sort on market ?, form portfolio deciles
• regress the CAPM equation to determine portfolio
  ?
• vary market proxies (SP 500 and Equal-weighted
  market proxy)
• vary lengths of time (preceding 24 and 60 month
  periods - I just show the 24 month but same for
  60 months)
• find 4 decile ? and their returns during bear
  markets

164
Grundy Malkiel Mean Decile Returns,
24-Month-Preceding Betas
165
Conclusions

• High-beta stocks suffer significantly greater
  losses than low beta stocks in declining markets.
• The above conclusion holds for each period and
  does not change significantly when different
  market proxies and lengths of time are used to
  estimate beta.
• Beta is a useful tool in forecasting short-term
  risk in declining markets.
• Value Line and Merrill Lynch Adjustment Equations
• High betas tend to over predict future betas
  low betas tend to under predict
• MLAdj. Beta 0.33753 0.66257(unadj. Beta)
• VL Adj. Beta 0.35 0.67(unadj. Beta)
• VL Betas are rounded to second decimal place of 0
  or 5

166
Arbitrage Pricing Theory Introduction Chapter
7 Continued

• CAPM is derived from the Theory of Choice
• requires behavioral assumptions
• one factor explains cross-sectional expected
  returns
• What is that factor???
• APT is derived from the Law of One Price
• requires less behavioral assumptions
• allows for several systematic factors
• Like multifactor CAPM

167
Arbitrage Pricing Theory

• An arbitrage opportunity arises when an investor
  can construct a zero-investment portfolio that
  will yield sure profits in future
• A zero-investment portfolio is one in which some
  securities are long, others short with no
  commitment of investors money
• This fundamental concept lies at heart of an
  alternative asset pricing model, known as the
  APT, developed by Steve Ross in 1977.

168
Factor Models

• All security returns are pervasively affected by
  several macroeconomic factors
• Different stocks have different sensitivities (b
  coefficients) to different factors, e.g. banks
  and inflation, auto companies and national income
  growth, etc.
• Factor models can quantify these multiple sources
  of risk

169
Factor Portfolios

• If we understood the attributes of factors, we
  could construct portfolios of stocks for which
  returns mimic factor movements
• Consider well-diversified portfolios built to
  have unique exposure to one factor and no
  exposure to other factors.
• Can we construct factor portfolios from these two
  stocks A and B?

170
Individual Assets and APT

• Each well-diversified factor portfolio is
  available to any investor and each has an
  expected excess return,
• Consider an individual security, Z.
• Can we construct a SUPER portfolio combining
  T-bills and factor portfolios to have same
  expected returns and no security-specific risk?
  What is that portfolio? What should be the
  expected return on security