Challenges in an Emission and Energy Constrained World

1
Challenges in an Emission and Energy Constrained
World

• Tom Cackette
• California Air Resources Board
• ASE Congressional Fact Finding Trip
• December 1, 2004

2
Outline

• 4 challenges facing CA
• Smog (summer ozone)
• Particulate matter (PM2.5)
• Climate change
• Petroleum dependence

3
Impacts of Air Pollution(per year in CA)
4
High Cost of Air Pollution (per year in CA)
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Summertime Smog

• Smog cut by 50

6
Lifetime Car Emissions Dramatically Declining
NOx HC
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Reducing Ozone Pollution Remaining Challenges

• Reduce emissions from many smaller sources
• Consumer products, forklifts, lawn mowers
• Clean up older vehicles
• Better smog inspections, scrap, retrofit
• Goal of eliminating ozone as a health problem
  will be achieved

8
Particulate Pollution
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Particulate Air Pollution

• PM2.5 pollution is pervasive
• 63 of national exposure in CA
• Worst day 3 times safe levels (LA)
• Diesel impacts significant
• 1/2 of premature deaths

10
Diesel Emissions Being Reduced

• New engine NOx and PM reduced1
• 98 by 2010 models
• 97 by 2013 models

1 Compared to uncontrolled
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Reducing PM PollutionRemaining Challenges

• Reduce emissions for other mobile sources
• Locomotives, ships, jet aircraft
• Strong Federal role needed
• Clean up existing diesel engines
• Retrofit/re-engine gt1 million engines
• State funds 140 million/year
• Federal needed for federal sources

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Climate Change
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Climate Change Projectionsfor California -- Next
100 Years

• Business as usual scenario
• Average temperature increase 7 to 10 oF
• Sea level rise 11 to 16 inches
• Sierra snow pack reduced 73 to 89 percent
• Winter/spring flooding
• Shortage of irrigation water in summer
• California joins the world community in
  addressing this challenge

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State Law Requires Vehicle GHG Reduction

• Regulation adopted Sept. 2004
• Maximum feasible reduction
• Cost beneficial to consumer
• New 2009 passenger vehicles
• Separate standards for cars and trucks
• Near and mid-term standards
• Phased-in over 8 years

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Adopted Regulation Reduces GHG Emissions
-27
-18
Fleetwide
16
Average Price Increase of New, Low GHG Vehicles
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Net Savings for Vehicle Purchaser
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Reducing Petroleum Dependency
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Reducing Petroleum Dependency - 2003 Study

• ARB/CEC 2003 Report to the Governor and
  Legislature
• Recommendations
• Adopt goal Reduce on-road petroleum use to 15
  below 2003 levels by 2020
• Adopt goal Increase use of non-petroleum fuels
  to 20 of consumption by 2020

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3 Actions That Could Reduce Petroleum Use

• Double new passenger vehicle fuel economy
  (federal government)
• Replace 1/3 of diesel fuel with natural
  gas-derived Fischer-Tropsch diesel
• Introduce hydrogen fuel cell vehicles - next
  decade
• Hydrogen offers long term solution

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CA Goal for ReducingPetroleum Dependency
On-road