Mr' Al Shaffer

1
Information and The Modern Military --The Need
for Information Agility
Mr. Al Shaffer 7 April 2008 Principal Deputy
Director Defense Research and Engineering
2
The Evolution to New Ideas

• The DoD, Like the World, is moving from Physics
  Based to Multidisciplinary and Non-Kinetic Science

In times of change, learners inherit the Earth,
while the learned find themselves beautifully
equipped to deal with a world that no longer
exists Eric Hoffer
3
A Changing World . . .
Military Uses
Impact of Mass Collaboration
Development Pace
Economic Mega Trends
EmergingTechnology
Expansion Of RD Funding
The Expanding Education Base
The Black Swan Syndrome
4
Pace of Technology Continues to Increase

• Time between modeling of semiconducting
  properties of germanium in 1931 and first
  commercial product (transistor radio) was 23
  years
• Carbon nanotube
• Discovered by Japan (1991)
• Researchers recognized carbon nanotubes were
  excellent sources of field-emitted electrons
  (1995)
• Jumbotron lamp - nanotube-based light source
  available as commercial product (2000)

Nanotechnology Rapid Technology
Evolution/Application Cycle
Source The Economist, Feb. 9, 2008
4
5
Comparison of Scientists Engineers (SEs)
Source The Economist, Nov. 15, 2007
Source Money Magazine 2005
http//www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubjec
t/displaystory.cfm?subjectid2133650story_id1014
3217
6
Growth of Educated Asian Population
National Science Foundation

• International SE labor force data can only be
  approximated.

Number in SE Labor Force, 2000 US 52.6M Asia
60.9M
Number in SE Labor Force, 1980 US 22.8M Asia
17.7M
Source National Science Foundation, SE
Indicators 2006
7
Demographic Trends
Massive Population Growth

• Demographic trends are the most predictable of
  the trend sets
• The major trends with significant defense
  implications
• North-South divide in age structure
• Demographic bonus India, Latin America
• Youth bulges in fragile states and migrant
  populations
• Aging and low birth rates in key allies China
• International and internal migration
• Push away from trouble
• Pull to economic opportunity
• Migrating political interests
• Youth, conflict, and ideology
• Urbanization

(Source UN, World Population Prospects, The 2006
Edition, 2007)
Demographic change will increase stress on
fragile states, create risks around access to
resources, and generate a range of governance,
societal, cultural, health issues as states
adjust to population transformations within and
between states

FROM OUSD (Policy) Future Shocks Study
8
International RD trends

• RD expenditures are increasing robustly around
  the world, driven by both governments and
  industry.

World Funding
US RD Funding
Source National Science Foundation, SE
Indicators 2006
9
U.S. trade balance high tech industries

• The trade balance of U.S. high technology
  industries has turned negative

Includes Aerospace, Pharmaceuticals, Computing,
Communications, Scientific Instruments
Source National Science Foundation, SE
Indicators 2006
10
The Pace of Technology Development

• Moores Law Computing doubles every 18
  months
• Fiber Law Communication capacity doubles
  every 9 months
• Storage Law Storage doubles every 12 months

Defense Acquisition Pace F-22 Milestone I Oct
86 IOC Dec 05 Comanche Milestone I Jun
89 IOC Sep 09
Computers at IOC are 2,000 X faster, hold
130,000 X bits of information than they did at MS
I
Technology growth is non-linear Acquisition path
has been linear
11
An information age Pearl Harbor?

• NO.but this guy is far cry from Imperial Japan

• Apple and ATT released the iPhone on 29 June
• An exclusive agreement guaranteed the iPhone
  could only be used on ATT's mobile network
• Hotz spent approximately 500 hours working on his
  summer project
• The hack was announced on 24 August.
• ATT - market cap 245B
• - annual revenue 90B
• Apple - market cap 117B
• - annual revenue 23B
• Hotz - PRICELESS

This is the new asymmetryvictory goes to the
agile and innovative
12
Trends

• Increasing
• International Science and Technology Relative to
  the US
• Industrial Globalization of RD
• Pace of Technology Development
• US Trade Balance in High-Tech Goods
• Potential for Hybrid Disruption
• Mass Collaboration Flattening the world
• Decreasing
• US Production of Global Scientists and Engineers
  relative to World

US High Technology Advantage not
Assured Competition Increasing Diffusion of
Knowledge Increases Risk of Technology Surprise
13
Decade of Strategic Evolution
93 Bottom-Up Review
97 Quadrennial Defense Review QDR
High
High

• Desert Storm
• Soviet Collapse

• Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda,Haiti

• 2 MTWs
• State-on-State
• Cross Border Conflict

• 2 MTWs
• State-on-State
• Cross Border Conflict

Perceived Capability Emphasis
Perceived Capability Emphasis
Moderate
Moderate

• Smaller Scale Contingencies

• Industrial AgeNear Peer

Low
Low
Lesser Contingencies
Future Near Peer
Major Theater War
Lesser Contingencies
Future Near Peer
Major Theater War
Strategic Capability
Strategic Capability
High
High
01 QDR
06 QDR

• 11 Sept / GWoT
• OEF / OIF
• New Asymmetries

• Citadel I II

Moderate
Perceived Capability Emphasis
Perceived Capability Emphasis

• 1-4-2-1

• Disruptive technologies
• Superiority in theCommons (Space, Cyber,
  Seas, Air)
• Dominance in Close(direct contact, CNO,littoral)

• Future Peer

• GWoT / ungoverned areas
• Irregular Warfare
• Low-end Asymmetric

• Ungoverned Areas
• Asymmetric Threats

• 1-4-2-1(State-to-State War)

Low
Low
Lesser Contingencies
Future Near Peer
Major Theater War
Lesser Contingencies
Future Near Peer
Major Theater War
Strategic Capability
Strategic Capability
14
2006 QDR Challenge Construct
Four Hard Problems

• Build partnerships to defeat terrorist extremism
• Defend the homeland in-depth
• Prevent acquisition or use of WMD by hostile
  actors.
• Shape choices of countries at strategic
  crossroads

15
National Defense Strategy DrivesInvestment
Strategy

• Irregular
• Combating Terrorism

• Catastrophic
• Protection Against WMD
• Protection Against Chem Bio Attacks

Higher
VULNERABILITY
Lower
Higher

• Disruptive
• New Technology Investment that Provides New
  Capabilities

Traditional Decrease Investment in Platform
Technologies
Lower
LIKELIHOOD
15
16
Science and Technology Enabling Technology
Priorities

• Technology focus areas
• Biometrics and Biological exploitation
• Information technology and applications
• Persistent Surveillance Technology
• Networks and Communication
• Human, Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling
• Language
• Cognitive Enhancement
• Directed Energy
• Autonomous systems
• Hyperspectral sensors
• Nanotechnology
• Advanced Materials
• Energy and Power
• Affordability
• Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction
  Technologies
• Energetic Materials

In BlueAreas with Substantial Increases in
FY08/09 Presidents Budget Request
17
RD Expansion Disruption

• Fundamentally can have global impact change the
  balance and approach to force expression
• Drives and fuels the need for new innovative
  concepts
• Includes how new capabilities are built on
  emerging technology
• Appearing increasingly from the global commercial
  marketplace

Future Processors
Genetic Engineering
Proliferant Lasers
Wireless Devices
Unmanned Vehicles
18
Information Accessibility is Changing the World
We are drowning in information but starved for
knowledge. This level of information is clearly
impossible to be handled by present means.
Uncontrolled and unorganized information is no
longer a resource in an information society,
instead it becomes the enemy. John Naisbitt,
Megatrends 1982
19
Some Thoughts on Growth in Information

• Scientific Citations has grown 10-fold since 1955

Source Garfield, Charting the Growth of Science,
2007
20
Some Thoughts on Growth in Information

• US Patents quadrupled with the Internet

Source Garfield, Charting the Growth of Science,
2007
21
Add Electronic Media, And

• In 2002, World Produced 5 Exabytes of New
  Information
• 5 Exabytes Equals the Information in the Library
  of Congresstimes 37,000
• 92 of New Information Stored in Magnetic Media
• New Information Doubles About Every Three Years
• Mass Collaboration and New Tools --- Wikis
  Increase Information Accessibility
• By 2006, the amount of digital information
  created, captured, and replicated was 1,288 x
  1018 bits. In computer parlance, that's 161
  exabytes or 161 billion gigabytes  This is about
  3 million times the information in all the books
  ever written
• Chevron's CIO says his company accumulates data
  at the rate of 2 terabytes 17,592,000,000,000
  bits a day.
• Not Just A US phenomenonChina Doubling Rate of
  Information is about every two years..

Source CAL Berkley study Alex Barnett 2003 How
Much Information UCAL school of Management and
Information Sciences
22
DDRE/DTIC GOAL -- Continue the Vision --

• DTIC is the DoD implementation agent for access
  to Defense RE Information
• (moving beyond the sum of DTIC RE Information
  and DDRE RE Information, to all Defense RE
  Information)

Defense RE Information
DTIC Collections
DoD RE Data
23
DTIC HOW ARE WE DOING?
24
RE Portal-- DoD Envisioned End State --
Financial Data - Comptroller (CIS) - PAE
(DPDP)
Unclassified Classified SCI

• RE Database
• E-gov
• Reliance

• DTIC Portal
• .gov/.mil
• Flexible Analysis

User 1
User 2
User n
Analysis tool 1 (Business Intel)
Congress Marks And Reports
Analysis tool 1 (Graphics)
Acq Data Base (DAMIR, DAIS)
International Data Base (GTKB/GTDD)
25
RE Portal-- DoD Envisioned End State --
Financial Data - Comptroller (CIS) - PAE
(DPDP)
Unclassified Classified SCI

• RE Database
• E-gov
• Reliance

• RE Portal
• .gov/.mil
• Flexible Analysis

Dont Care What Name
User 1
User 2
User n
Analysis tool 1 (Business Intel)
Congress Marks And Reports
Analysis tool 1 (Graphics)
Acq Data Base (DAMIR, DAIS)
26
VISION To develop technology to defeat any
adversary on any battlefield Any Battlefield
includes physical, cyber, space, undersea, etc
QUESTIONS?
27
RE Database-- Task Force --

• Goals/Objectives
• Develop roadmap steps to solution
• Assign actions
• Identify issues/problems
• Develop schedules (with critical milestones)

TASK FORCES PHASE I DESIRED END-STATE (Notional)
28
Technology and the Modern World
In times of change, learners inherit the Earth,
while the learned find themselves beautifully
equipped to deal with a world that no longer
exists Eric Hoffer
There is no reason anyone would want a
computer in their home Ken
Olson, President, DEC, 1977 Everything that can
be invented has been invented Charles Duell,
Commissioner US Patent Office,1899 I think
there is a world market for maybe five
computers. Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman,
1943 640K ought to be enough for anybody.
Bill Gates, CEO of Microsoft, 1981 If you
dont know where you are going, you might end up
someplace else Yogi Berra These changes, among
others, are ushering us toward a world where
knowledge, power and productive capability will
be more dispersed than at any time in our history
a world where value creation will be fast,
fluid, and persistently disruptive. Don Tapscott
and Anthony Williams, Wikinomics
The conjunction of 21st century internet speed
and 12th century fanaticism has turned our world
into a tinderbox -- Tina Brown ,Washington
Post, 19 May 2005