Hurricane Ike

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Hurricane Ike

• 1400L 08 Sep 2008
• Al Mongeon
• NOAA Meteorologist

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(No Transcript)
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IKE BACK OVER WATER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
CURRENTLYAPPROACHING

• AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
  IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2
  NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80
  MILES...130 KM...WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT
  250 MILES...405 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA
  CUBA.
• IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
  KM/HR...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
  SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
  CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG
  OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL
  CUBA TODAY...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND
  EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
  TUESDAY NIGHT.
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160
  KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO
  HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A
  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
  ESTIMATE OF IKE'S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
  RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING NEXT DAY OR SO
  WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER.

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Wind, Pressure, Storm Surge

• HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
  MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
  STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
  MILES...325 KM. JUCARO ON THE SOUTH COAST OF
  CENTRAL CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST TO 86
  MPH...138 KM/HR.
• THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965
  MB...28.50 INCHES.
• COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE
  NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
  DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
  AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE
  SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
  1-3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
  WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

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Sea State, Rainfall,Severe Weather

• LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO
  AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
  COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
  COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
  CURRENTS.
• IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
  OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
  MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
  FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
  TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
  ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
  POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
  BAHAMAS.
• RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
  POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
• ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME
  SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
  THROUGH TOMORROW.

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Watches and Warnings

• AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF
  JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
  WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND.
• A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
  PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
  CUBA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY..
  .CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
  SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA
  HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
  THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE
  CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.

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Watches and Warnings

• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
  FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY
  TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL
  STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
• A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
  FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY
  TORTUGAS.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS
  ISLAND AND RAGGED ISLAND.
• A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT GRAND
  CAYMAN.
• INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
  MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

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Hurricane Ike Radar Image