CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND MASS STARVATION BY 2050

1
CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION - AND MASS
STARVATION BY 2050?

• Tim Curtin
• Presentation to the ANU
• EMERITUS FACULTY
• 20th February 2008

2
Carbon Stocks and Flows
3
Increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide 1958-2006 in parts per million by volume
(ppmv)
4
If only inflation was as low as CO2 growth at
less than 0.2 p.a.
5
Measuring Global warming in 1885 the data base
year
6
GLOBAL Temperature Anomalies 1880-1900in .01 C
base period 1951-1980
7
Global climate science

• If global temperatures in 1885 were below the
  average for 1951-1980, when in the 1880s there
  was in effect zero instrumental temperature
  coverage of the tropics, where is the science?
• Clearly a case of lies, damned lies, and

8
Measuring AGW 1945
9
Measuring global warming in 2005if it
existed it was mostly measured in the USA
10
Measuring Global warming

• How global warming is measured by GISS, Miami
  Arizona

11
Rise in temperature at Miami AZ after relocation
of weather station in 2001 (station used to be in
Magma copper mine pit workings)
12
Lampasas Texas new location 2001
13
Hey presto, global warming! Or how Jim Hansen
made 2005 the warmest year ever
14
Mr Micawbers basic accounting identity and mine

• Y income, X expenditure
• Y gt X happiness
• Y lt X misery
• Y X S (Saving)
• M emissions of CO2 in year t
• C change in atmospheric concentration of CO2
  in year t
• U uptakes of CO2 by terrestrial oceanic
  photosynthesis in year t
• Ct Mt Ut, so Ut Mt Ct
• In 2000-2006 on average, Mt 9.1 GtC, Ct 4.1
  GtC, so Ut 5.0 GtC
• That is, 9.1 4.1 5.0
• So uptakes by photosynthesis averaged 5 GtC p.a.
  equal to 55 per cent of CO2 emissions from
  2000-2006 (Source Canadell et al PNAS 2007)

15
Sensitivity to estimation error each
under-estimate of CO2 emissions means an equal
and opposite understatement of CO2 uptakes
16
What of Human CO2 emissions?(aka breath)
17
Micawbers Climate Stocks and Flows
18
Fig.1 Falling proportion of retained emissions
(unvarnished data)
19
Fig.2. The massaged (by Canadell et al) version
of the data - rising proportion of emissions
retained in the atmosphere
20
How to fudge data

• Canadell co justify the data massaging they did
  to get the declining trend curve in Fig.1 to turn
  up as in Fig.2 in the Supporting text to their
  PNAS October 2007 paper.
• Despite having an annual time series of more than
  40 years they considered it necessary (1) to
  remove intra-annual variability of the Mauna Loa
  series due to the spring flush of the NH, and (2)
  the inter-annual variability associated with El
  Nino (ENSO) and volcanic data.
• Step (1) is unnecessary for an annual end-of year
  series. The success of Step (2) in reversing the
  trend of the raw data implies that ENSO and
  volcanic activity themselves had a secular trend
  to act as sinks, soaking up CO2.
• The truth is that Canadell et al have been
  striving for years in a great profusion of papers
  and books to prove that there is already
  Saturation of the Terrestrial Carbon Sink (that
  is the title of their chapter 6 in their latest
  book on all this).
• But Micawbers identity defeats them, for the
  annoying truth is that virtually every year since
  1960 more than half of recorded CO2 emissions has
  been taken up by globally, so less than half has
  stayed up, as confirmed by comparing CGIAD and
  IEA data on emissions with Mauna Loa.

21
Fig.3 Saturation of the Earths sinks? The
declining trend of the airborne fraction since
1993 again indicates increasing sinks
22
Fig.4 Another refutation of Canadells saturating
terrestrial sink world food production absorbs
CO2 via GPP
23
Fig. 5 Relationship between CO2 emissions and
world food production emission flows more
important than the atmospheric stock because of
partial pressure and altitude effects
24
Effect of elevated CO2 on yields
25
In defence of oil palm
26
Mass suicide plans of the IPCC, EU and Mr Rudd

• 55 per cent of CO2 emissions are taken up by
  photosynthesis, and this equates to Mr Micawbers
  savings and happiness.
• But the IPCC, EU and Mr Rudd (along with Ms Wong
  and Ross Garnaut) require us to reduce emissions
  to 40 per cent of the 1990 level by 2050.
• McKinsey claimed last week Australia could do
  better by achieving 40 per cent of the 1990 level
  by 2030, at a cost per person equal to just one
  mobile phone call a day.
• The global 1990 level of emissions was 8.36 GtC
  (including land use change of 2.26 GtC),, so
  reducing to 40 of the 1990 level means a level
  of 3.35 GtC, which is 33 of the 2006 level of
  9.94 GtC, and (for Australia) 27 of the 2030 BAU
  level.
• Emissions reduced to 3.35 GtC will be well below
  the current uptake level of CO2 of over 5 GtC a
  year, and that must impact on productivity of
  agriculture forestry and fisheries

27
Fig.6 How to create a shortage of carbon dioxide
by reducing emissions to 40 of 2000 level by
2050
28
Fig.7Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)after
global emissions reduction to 40 of level in
2000 by 2050
29
Will agricultural production at todays level and
growth be sustainable with 60 cuts in emissions
from the 1990 level by 2050?

• Obviously Figs. 6 and 7 depend on the
  assumption that CO2 uptakes continue even if
  China and India join the US, EU, and Australia et
  al in going for the minimum 60 cuts in 1990
  emission levels by 2050 (Stern wants 80).
• Probably they will not. But if not, what then
  for the agricultural production levels and growth
  in Fig.5?
• They will not be sustainable if emissions are cut
  by that amount, and starvation resulting from
  the ever rising food prices we are already
  witnessing will soon be the lot of all our
  grandchildren.

30
The Hansen-Sato emission reduction rule

• James Hansen and Makiko Sato (PNAS, 16 Nov 2004)
  the growth rate of methane (CH4) emissions is
  down by 66 since 1980.
• N2O growth shows zero trend since 1978.
• That means a reduced need to cut CO2 emissions
  for any targeted level of forcings.
• Stabilization of atmospheric composition
  requires CO2 emissions to be reduced to match
  the CO2 absorbed by the ocean and biosphere.
• Why then do UK, EU, and Australia seek to reduce
  emissions below the rate of absorption?

31
Why not set targets by latitude?
32
Enforcing Kyoto the Garnaut Plan

• There is already influential talk in the United
  States (amongst those supporting firm mitigation
  policies at home) and the European Union, of
  trade sanctions against non-cooperating
  countries.
• I myself worry about the risk of capture by other
  interests favouring protection for other reasons.
  Withdrawal of opportunities for trade in
  greenhouse gas credits and development assistance
  would seem to be less problematic instruments of
  punishment. (Lee Lecture, 29/11/07)
• The suggested punishments look more like
  toothless tigers if China and India decline to
  subscribe to Kyoto II, that itself indicates a
  lack of interest in emissions trading credits,
  and both are doing quite well enough without
  development assistance.
• The EUs threat to impose trade sanctions is of
  course largely protectionist, but very dangerous,
  as trade wars can lead to real wars (remember
  Pearl Harbor).

33
The Garnaut Emission Trading Scheme

• Ross Garnaut has already sketched what he has in
  mind for his ETS Report
• Targets or Caps will not be fixed or enforced on
  an annual basis so long as at the end (2020,
  2030, or 2050) the respective target has been
  achieved.
• The Trading in Credits will be managed by a kind
  of Reserve Bank.
• Problem For any given Cap to be achieved, enough
  firms must emit enough less than their caps to
  earn credits for sale to non-performing firms to
  cover their excess emissions.

34
Emissions Trading in Practice the case of Rio
Tinto

• Rio Tintos Aluminium operations increased their
  emissions of CO2e from 166,486 tonnes in 2004 to
  973,977 tonnes in 2006 (2007). Had the ALP won
  the 2004 election and introduced emissions caps
  and trading, presumably the expansion of output
  leading to these growing emissions could only
  have happened if Rio had bought credits. Even if
  the carbon dioxide price that emerged from the
  ETS was only A60 per tonne of CO2e (A16.34 per
  tonne of carbon), (McKinsey mentioned A65 last
  week) Rio would have had to buy credits costing
  A50 million p.a. (assuming the cap had been set
  only at 80 of the 2004 level), equal to 20 per
  cent of its capital expenditure in 2006, or 6.76
  per cent of net earnings in 2006. Given that the
  ETS credits would have to be purchased every
  year, how long would it take for Rio to determine
  that piping the CO2 into Gladstone harbour was
  more cost effective. It would moreover be able to
  recover the cost of this by selling the resulting
  earned credits to those with less easy disposal
  options. A good news day for the Barrier Reef!

35
Emission caps trading could promote CCS with
its potential for more harm that that of nuclear
waste

• In 1986 the volcanic lake on Cameroons Mount
  Nios produced a cloud of carbon dioxide that
  drifted down the mountain and killed 1750
  villagers as they slept. This was many more than
  the 36 or so who died at Chernobyl just a few
  months earlier.
• In 1979, an explosion at Dieng volcano in
  Indonesia released 200,000 tonnes of CO2,
  smothering 142 people on the plain below. Any gas
  at concentrations approaching 1 million ppm is
  highly dangerous, apart from oxygen

36
Cargo cult of the 21st century (Peter Walsh)

• The Hawke government finance minister Peter Walsh
  has warned the Rudd Government that cutting
  greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent by 2050
  would send Australian living standards back to
  the Middle Ages. (The Australian, 26 January
  2008)

37
References

• Ainsworth, E.A. and S.P. Long 2005. What have we
  learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment
  (FACE)? New Phytologist, 165 351-372.
• Australian Greenhouse Office 2006. Australias
  National Greenhouse Accounts. AGO, Canberra.
• Canadell, J. and C Le Quéré, M.R. Raupach, C.B.
  Field, E.T. Buitenhius, P. Ciais, T.J. Conway,
  N.P. Gillett, R.A. Houghton, G. Marland 2007a.
  Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2
  growth from economic activity, carbon intensity,
  and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of
  the National Academy of Science of the USA,
  October 25, 2007.
• Canadell, J., and P. Ciais, T. Conway, C. Field,
  C. Le Quéré, S. Houghton, G. Marland, M. Raupach,
  E. Buitenhuis, N. Gillett 2007b. Recent Carbon
  Trends and the Global Carbon Budget. Global
  Carbon Project, Canberra.
• CDIAC 2007. see Marland et al. 2007
• Coase, R.H. 1990. The Firm the Market and the
  Law. University of Chicago Press, Chicago and
  London.
• Denman K.L. et al. (including P. Ciais, P.M.
  Cox, P. Bousquet, J. Canadell, P.
  Friedlingstein, C. Le Quéré, M. Raupach, and W.
  Steffen) 2007. Couplings between Changes in the
  Climate System and Biogeochemistry, in WGI 2007.
• Dyson, F. 2007. A Many-colored Glass. Reflections
  on the Place of Life in the Universe. University
  of Virginia Press. Charlottesville and London.

38
More References

• Garnaut, R. 2007. Will climate change bring an
  end to the Platinum Age? Inaugural S.T. Lee
  Lecture.
• Hansen, J. and M. Sato 2004. Greenhouse gas
  growth rates, Proceedings of the National Academy
  of Science, November 16, 2004, vol.101, 46,
  16109-16114.
• Hoyle, F. 1981. Ice. Hutchison, London.
• Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf 2007. Atmospheric
  CO2 concentrations (ppmv) at Mauna Loa. Carbon
  Dioxide Research Group, Scripps Institute of
  Oceanography (SIO), from http//cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp
  /trends/co2/maunaloa.co2
• Lomborg, B. 2007. Cool it. The Skeptical
  Environmentalists Guide to Global Warming.
  Marshall Cavendish, London.
• Marland, G, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andrews 2007.
  Trends a compendium of data. CDIAC, Oak Ridge
  (availble at http//cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/
• Metz, Metz B. et al. (eds) 2005. Carbon Dioxide
  Capture and Storage. IPCC Special Report. Summary
  for Policy Makers. IPCC, WG III.
• Nicholls, R.J. and R.S.J. Tol 2006, Impacts and
  responses to sea-level rise A global analysis of
  the SRES scenarios over the 21st Century,
  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
  A Mathematical, Physical and Engineering
  Sciences, 361 (1841), 1073-1095.
• Nordhaus, W.D. and J.G.Boyer 2000, Warming the
  World Economic Models of Global Warming The MIT
  Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
• Penner, J.E., D.H. Lister, D.J. Griggs, D.J.
  Dokken, M. McFarland 1999. Aviation and the
  Global Atmosphere. IPCC, CUP, Cambridge.

39
And more references

• Rio Tinto 2007. Annual Report and Financial
  Statements 2006. Rio Tinto Limited, Melbourne.
• Robson, A. 2007. A Solution in Search of a
  Problem. Lavoisier Group, www.lavoisier.com.au,
  Melbourne.
• Shergold, P. 2007. Report of the Task Group on
  Emissions Trading. Australian Government,
  Canberra.
• Stern, N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change.
  The Stern Review. CUP, Cambridge.
•  
• Stoy, V. 1965. Photosynthesis, respiration, and
  carbohydrate accumulation in spring wheat in
  relation to yield. Physologia Plantarum
  Supplementum IV, Lund.
•  
• Tol, R.S.J. and G.W. Yohe 2006, Of Dangerous
  Climate Change and Dangerous Emission Reduction
  in H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic,
  T. Wigley and G. Yohe (eds.), Avoiding Dangerous
  Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
  Cambridge, Chapter 30, pp. 291-298.
•  
• UIG (Universal Industrial Gases) 2007. Carbon
  Dioxide Properties, Uses, Applications. UIG,
  Easton PA. (available at www.uigi.com/carbondioxid
  e.html)
•  
• WGI (Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth
  Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
  on Climate Change) 2007. Climate Change 2007. The
  Physical Science Basis. CUP, Cambridge.
•  
• WGIII (Working Group III Contribution to the
  Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
  Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
•  

40
Annex Freeman Dyson and carbon dioxide(not used
at Presentation)
The effect of carbon dioxide is important where
the air is dry, and air is usually dry only where
it is cold. Hot desert air may feel dry but often
contains a lot of water vapor. The warming effect
of carbon dioxide is strongest where air is cold
and dry, mainly in the arctic rather than in the
tropics, mainly in mountainous regions rather
than in lowlands, mainly in winter rather than in
summer, and mainly at night rather than in
daytime. The warming is real, but it is mostly
making cold places warmer rather than making hot
places hotter. To represent this local warming by
a global average is misleading. The fundamental
reason why carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is
critically important to biology is that there is
so little of it. A field of corn growing in full
sunlight in the middle of the day uses up all the
carbon dioxide within a meter of the ground in
about five minutes. If the air were not
constantly stirred by convection currents and
winds, the corn would stop growing. About a tenth
of all the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is
converted into biomass every summer and given
back to the atmosphere every fall. That is why
the effects of fossil-fuel burning cannot be
separated from the effects of plant growth and
decay.
41
More Freeman Dyson
Greenhouse experiments show that many plants
growing in an atmosphere enriched with carbon
dioxide react by increasing their root-to-shoot
ratio. This means that the plants put more of
their growth into roots and ess into stems and
leaves. A change in this direction is to be
expected, because the plants have to maintain a
balance between the leaves collecting carbon from
the air and the roots collecting mineral
nutrients from the soil. The enriched atmosphere
tilts the balance so that the plants need less
leaf-area and more root-area. Now consider what
happens to the roots and shoots when the growing
season is over, when the leaves fall and the
plants die. The new-grown biomass decays and is
eaten by fungi or microbes. Some of it returns to
the atmosphere and some of it is converted into
topsoil. On the average, more of the above-ground
growth will return to the atmosphere and more of
the below-ground growth will become topsoil. So
the plants with increased root-to-shoot ratio
will cause an increased transfer of carbon from
the atmosphere into topsoil. If the increase in
atmospheric carbon dioxide due to fossil-fuel
burning has caused an increase in the average
root-to-shoot ratio of plants over large areas,
then the possible effect on the top-soil
reservoir will not be small.
42
Freeman Dyson, cont.

• There is no doubt that parts of the world are
  getting warmer, but the warming is not global. I
  am not saying that the warming does not cause
  problems. Obviously it does. Obviously we should
  be trying to understand it better. I am saying
  that the problems are grossly exaggerated. They
  take away money and attention from other problems
  that are more urgent and more important, such as
  poverty and infectious disease and public
  education and public health, and the preservation
  of living creatures on land and in the oceans,
  not to mention easy problems such as the timely
  construction of adequate dikes around the city of
  New Orleans.
• We dont know how big a fraction of our emissions
  is absorbed by the land, since we have not
  measured the increase or decrease of the biomass.
  
• The number that I ask you to remember is the
  increase in thickness, averaged over one half of
  the land area of the planet, of the biomass that
  would result if all the carbon that we are
  emitting by burning fossil fuels were absorbed.
  The average increase in thickness is one
  hundredth of an inch per year.
• The point of this calculation is the very
  favourable rate of exchange between carbon in the
  atmosphere and carbon in the soil..

43
Freeman Dyson, concluded
To stop the carbon in the atmosphere from
increasing, we only need to grow the biomass in
the soil by a hundredth of an inch per year If
we plant crops without ploughing the soil, more
of the biomass goes into roots which stay in the
soil, and less returns to the atmosphere. If we
use genetic engineering to put more biomass into
roots, we can probably achieve much more rapid
growth of topsoil. I conclude from this
calculation that the problem of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere is a problem of land management,
not a problem of meteorology. We do not know
whether intelligent land-management could
increase the growth of the topsoil reservoir by
four billion tons of carbon per year, the amount
needed to stop the increase of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere. All that we can say for sure is
that this is a theoretical possibility and ought
to be seriously explored. But clearly it will
not be explored by the Garnaut Review