Travel Patterns and Trends (chapter 2)

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Travel Patterns and Trends (chapter 2)
Oguz BeniceTHS 52131 Introduction To Tourism
Industry Fall 2005
2
Introduction

• International and regional travel trends such as
  1. visitor arrivals2. tourism receipts3. top
  destinations4. tourism expenditures...will be
  examined in this chapter. ?

3
Introduction

• The understanding of trends is important as they
  provide an indication to what is likely to occur
  in the future for planning and marketing a
  touristic destination.
• External factors including political,
  demographic, social and technological changes
  will also be considered. ?

4
Tourism GrowthDomestic International Tourism

• The WTO estimates that the scale of world
  domestic tourism far exceeds that of world
  international tourism. In 1995...

Total domestic tourist arrivals 5.6 billion
Total international tourist arrivals 567 million
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Tourism GrowthTotal International Arrivals

• The Boom in international tourist arrivals around
  the globe is relatively new. Statistics
  projects

1950 25 million people
1970 160 million people
2000 702 million people
2020 1.600 million people
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Tourism GrowthTop 15 Tourism Destination in 2001
Rank Destinations Number of Arrivals Share
1 France 77 million people 11
2 Spain 49 million people 7,1
3 United States 45 million people 6,6
4 Italy 41 million people 5,6
5 China 33 million people 4,8
6 United Kingdom 23 million people 3,3
7 Russan Fed. 22 million people 3
8 Mexico 20 million people 2,9
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Tourism GrowthTop 15 Tourism Destination in 2001
Rank Destinations Number of Arrivals Share
9 Canada 19 million people 2,8
10 Austria 18 million people 2,6
11 Germany 18 million people 2,6
12 Hungary 15 million people 2,2
13 Poland 15 million people 2,2
14 Hong Kong 13 million people 2
15 Greece 13 million people 2
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Tourism GrowthTop 15 Tourism Earners in 2001
Rank Destinations Receipts
1 United States 80.7
2 Spain 36.7
3 France 33.5
4 Italy 29.0
5 China 19.9
6 United Kingdom 19.0
7 Germany 18.0
8 Canada 19.9
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Tourism GrowthTop 15 Tourism Earners in 2001
Rank Destinations Receipts
09 Austria 15.0
10 Greece 12.0
11 Australia 11.0
12 Mexico 11.0
13 Turkey 9.0
14 Switzerland 9.0
15 Singapore 9.0
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Tourism GrowthTop 15 Tourism Spenders in 2001
Rank Destinations Expenditure
1 United States 70 US Billion
2 Germany 45 US Billion
3 United Kingdom 35 US Billion
4 Japan 30 US Billion
5 France 17 US Billion
6 Italy 15 US Billion
7 China 13 US Billion
8 Netherland 12 US Billion
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Tourism GrowthTop 15 Tourism Spenders in 2001
Rank Destinations Expenditure
09 Canada 12 US Billion
10 Belgium 10 US Billion
11 Austria 9 US Billion
12 Korea 7 US Billion
13 Sweeden 7 US Billion
14 Switzerland 7 US Billion
15 Taiwan 6 US Billion
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Tourism GrowthAverage Number of Vacations (2001)
Italy 42 Days
France 37 Days
Germany 35 Days
Brazil 34 Days
UK 28 Days
Canada 26 Days
Korea 25 Days
Japan 25 Days
USA 13 Days
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Regional Travel TrendsInternational Arrivals by
Region Forecast
Region 1995 2000 2010 Annual Growth
Europe 337 400 525 3.1
East Asia/Pacific 84 115 229 7.6
Americas 112 120 195 3.7
Africa 19 28 37 4.6
Middle East 11 23 26 4.9
South Asia 4 6 11 6.7
World 567 692 1.023 4.1
(in Millions)
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Regional Travel TrendsEurope

• As a region, Europe is the worlds number one
  destination.
• In 1995, the region attracted two-thirds of all
  international tourist arrivals.
• It is also the leader in intra-regional travel
  it is estimated that 80 of the visitors to
  Europe are other Europeans. ?

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Regional Travel TrendsEurope

• Leading destinations are France, Spain, Italy
• However there is a decrease in the growth rates
  of foreign arrivals, attributed to saturation
  levels and poor exchange rates.
• As a sub-region within Europe, the Eastern
  Mediterranean countries, such as Turkey and
  Israel and central European sub-region will be in
  increase of arrival growth rate. ?

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Regional Travel TrendsAsia and the Pacific

• The growth of travel in East Asia and the Pacific
  has been particularly rapid.
• From a region with arrivals totaling fewer than
  100.000 in 1950, 7.2 million in 1970, 88 million
  international arrivals in 1995.
• The forecast shows East Asia and the Pacific
  moving ahead of the Americas, ranking second in
  2010. ?

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Regional Travel TrendsAsia and the Pacific

• Top destinations include China, Hong Kong,
  Singapore.
• Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam will
  continue to grow as well.
• China has the potential to be a particularly rich
  source of outbound travelers, with its rapidly
  expanding economy. ?

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Regional Travel TrendsSouth Asia

• South Asia region has made impressive development
  in recent years, starting at a smaller base.
• The region is compromised of India, Sri Lanka,
  Maldives (based on its beach resorts), Nepal
  (which offers special interest tourism), Iran,
  Bangladesh.
• Since 1993, the regional growth rate was three
  times higher than the world average. ?

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Regional Travel TrendsAmericas

• The USA and Canada, like western Europe have
  reached their peak, meaning that growth for
  outbound tourism will slow.
• Intra-regional tourism dominates In 1995, 75 of
  total arrivals were intra regional tourist flows.
• Cuba Mexico experienced the quickest growth
  rate of all the countries of the Americas. ?

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Regional Travel TrendsMiddle East

• The Middle East was the fastest growing region
  for 1995.
• Top destinations include Egypt and also Jordan,
  Bahrain and Lebanon.
• Rapid growth was explained by a renewed interest
  in cultural tourism and an increase of political
  stability in the region. ?

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Regional Travel TrendsAfrica

• Africa is a problematic tourist destination
  political instability, military disturbances,
  health apprehension have discouraged travelers.
• One exception South Africa enjoyed growth in
  both leisure and travel business.
• For the future, Africa needs improving political
  stability. ?

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Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Monthly Arrivals
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL
2003 363 478 495 661 1142 1507 2123 2263 1866 1649 768   636 13.958
2002 307 426 676 853 1326 1458 1897 1900 1771 1420 662 557 13.244
2001 359 405 547 885 1232 1388 1777 1601 1440 1066 521 396 11.555
2000 333 354 435 721 986 1.079 1.525 1.420 1.365 1.167 590 419 10.394
1999 358 370 409 426 690 781 931 1.077 873 797 433 319 7.464
1998 350 371 478 642 987 1.039 1.145 1.377 1.164 1.034 502 371 9.460
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Tourist Arrivals in TurkeyBavul Ticaret
Development ?
Years 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Total 5849 3689 2255 2944 3039
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Tourist Arrivals in TurkeyWhere they come from ?
(part 1)
2000 2001 2002
Germany 2.277.502 21,8 2.884.051 24,8 3.480.844 26,3
Russian Fed. 1.383.110 13,3 1.430.039 12,3 1.658.699 12,5
UK 915.285 8,8 845.536 7,3 1.040.228 7,9
Netherlands 440.290 4,2 632.975 5,5 871.560 6,6
Bulgaria 381.697 3,7 540.452 4,7 833.848 6,3
France 449.545 4,3 524.170 4,5 522.808 3,9
Iran 380.877 3,7 327.146 2,8 432.224 3,3
Austria 320.582 3,1 360.363 3,1 376.995 2,8
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Tourist Arrivals in Turkey Where They Come From
? (part 2)
2000 2001 2002
Belgium 256.881 2,5 310.296 2,7 313.436 2,4
Greece 218.670 2,1 197.258 1,7 280.307 2,1
Israel 312.304 3,0 310.604 2,7 271.024 2,0
U S A 515.090 4,9 429.563 3,7 247.837 1,9
Italy 218.785 2,1 315.286 2,7 211.069 1,6
Others 2.357.535 22,5 2.511.230 21,5 2.705.996 20,4
Total 10.428.153 100,0 11.618.969 100,0 13.246.875 100,0
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Tourist Arrivals in TurkeyWhere They Stay at ?
2000 2001 2002
Antalya 3.300.959 31,7 4.211.930 36,3 4.747.550 35,8
Istanbul 2.420.541 23,2 2.517.139 21,7 2.699.131 20,4
Mugla 1.351.745 13,0 1.327.128 11,4 1.944.295 14,7
Izmir 481.617 4,6 621.589 5,4 650.739 4,9
Aydin 422.741 4,1 448.599 3,9 197.626 1,5
Others 2.450.550 23,5 2.492.584 21,4 3.007.534 22,7
Total 10.428.153 100,0 11.618.969 100,0 13.246.875 100,0
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Tourist Arrivals in TurkeyHow They Come ?
2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002
  Tourist Arrivals Tourist Arrivals Tourist Arrivals
Air 69,8 7.274.062 72,8 8.459.592 75,4 9.983.806
Land 18,9 1.969.579 16,9 1.965.698 18,6 2.465.053
Train 0,4 39.667 0,5 55.814 0,4 55.509
Sea 11,0 1.144.845 9,8 1.137.865 5,6 742.507
Total 100,0 10.428.153 100,0 11.618.969 100,0 13.246.875
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Tourist Arrivals in TurkeyWhy they come ? (part1)

of Arrivals 2001 1998 1997 1996 1993
Holiday 52,3 49.79 56.12 50 60
Culture 9,2 9.86 10.45 13 9
Shopping 8,3 5.73 5.94 4.4 11
Familly / Friend Visit 7,9 5.91 6.28 4.5 4
Meeting / Conference 2,4 2.17 1.49 1.5 1
Health 1,0 0.55
Religion 0,3 0.25
Sport 1,3 1.03
Education 1.06
Transit 3,1 0.71
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Tourist Arrivals in TurkeyWhy they come ? (part2)

2001 1998 1997 1996 1993
Work 8.90 5.51 10 6
Business 6.10 6.7 4.8 3.5
Fairs 5,0 4.81 3.91 4.3 2
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Tourist Arrivals in TurkeyWhat Motivates to
Choose Turkey ?

Price 25
Discover Turkish People   20
General Interest for Turkey 19
Cultural Events 15
Cheap Shopping 15
Job Opportunities 6
Quality Items 3
Turkish Food 2
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Tourist Arrivals in TurkeyWho Stays in Hotels ?
GERMANY 31,9
RUSSIAN FED. 10,4
FRANCE 7,4
UK 5,3
USA 4,7
JAPAN 4,2
AUSTRIA 2,2
ROMANIA 0,5
BULGARIA 0,4
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Outbound Tourism in TurkeyWhat is the Situation ?

DEPARTURES VARIATION ()
1995 3.981.391 15.52
1996 4.260.701 7.02
1997 4.632.876 8.74
1998 4.601.349 -0.68
1999 4.758.211 3.41
2000 5.284.336 11.06
2001 4.850.029 -8.22
2002 5.132.664 5.69