Charlton Research Company

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TITLE PAGE
The Pulse Of The Nation Western Association of
Chamber Executives February 8, 2008
Charlton Research Company
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Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening
THE WOODS ARE LOVELY, DARK AND DEEP, BUT I HAVE
PROMISES TO KEEP, AND MILES TO GO BEFORE I
SLEEP, AND MILES TO GO BEFORE I SLEEP. Robert
Frost
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Todays Presentation

• Primaries and Caucuses
• Qualities in Presidential Candidates
• Republican Democrat Brands
• The General Election
• Architectural Politics
• What Does It All Mean?

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Primaries and Caucuses
Charlton Research Company
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2008 Super Tuesday Primaries Caucuses
ME (c)
WA (c)
VT (p)
OH (p)
PA (p)
IN (p)
ND (c)
MT (c-GOP)
NH (p)
MN (p)
NY (p)
OR (p)
MA (p)
WI (p)
ID (c-Dem)
MI (p)
RI (p)
SD (p)
WY( c)
CT (p)
IA (c)
NJ (p)
NE ()
NV (c)
IL (p)
UT (p)
CO (c)
DE (p)
MO (p)
CA (p)
KS (c-Dem)
MD (p)
KY (p)
DC (p)
NC (p)
TN (p)
SC (p)
AR (p)
NM (c-Dem)
AZ (p)
OK (p)

WV (c-GOP)
MS (p)
AL (p)
GA (p)
TX (p)
LA (p)
FL (p)
AK (c)
VA (p)
HI (c)
American Samoa (p)
Note Colors reflect 2004 presidential results C
Caucus P Primary
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Delegate Counts

• Democratic Total Delegates 4,049
• Delegates needed to nominate 2,025
• At stake on Super Tuesday 1,681
• Superdelegates 796
• Romney
• Republican Total Delegates 2,380
• Delegates needed to nominate 1,191
• At stake on Super Tuesday 1,015

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2008 Super Tuesday Republican Results
ME (c)
WA (c)
VT (p)
OH (p)
PA (p)
IN (p)
ND (c)
MT (c)
NH (p)
MN (p)
NY (p)
OR (p)
MA (p)
WI (p)
)
MI (p)
RI (p)
SD (p)
WY( c)
CT (p)
IA (c)
NJ (p)
NE ()
NV (c)
IL (p)
WV (c)
UT (p)
CO (c)
DE (p)
MO (p)
CA (p)
KY (p)
TN (p)
SC (p)
AR (p)
NM (c-Dem)
AZ (p)
OK (p)

MS (p)
AL (p)
GA (p)
TX (p)
LA (p)
FL (p)
AK (c)
HI (c)
American Samoa (p)
C Caucus P Primary
Source CBS News estimates
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2008 Super Tuesday Democrat Results
ME (c)
VT (p)
OH (p)
PA (p)
IN (p)
ND (c)
MT (c-GOP)
NH (p)
MN (p)
NY (p)
OR (p)
MA (p)
WI (p)
ID (c)
SD (p)
MI (p)
WY( c)
CT (p)
IA (c)
NJ (p)
NV (c)
IL (p)
UT (p)
CO (c)
DE (p)
MO (p)
CA (p)
KS (c)
MD (p)
KY (p)
DC (p)
NC (p)
TN (p)
SC (p)
AR (p)
AZ (p)
NM (c)
OK (p)

AL (p)
GA (p)
TX (p)
LA (p)
FL (p)
AK (c)
VA (p)
HI (c)
American Samoa (p)
C Caucus P Primary
Source CBS News estimates
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Upcoming Primaries Caucuses
ME (c)
VT (p)
VT (p)
WA (c)
OH (p)
PA (p)
IN (p)
MT (c-GOP)
NH (p)
ND (c)
NH (p)
MN (p)
NY (p)
OR (p)
WI (p)
MA (c-dem)
ID (c)
MI (p)
SD (p)
CT (p)
WY( c)
RI (p)
IA (c)
OH (p)
NB (dem)
NJ (p)
NV (c)
IL (p)
UT (p)
DE (p)
CO (c)
MO (p)
MD (p)
VA (p)
CA (p)
KS (GOP)
DC (p)
KY (p)
MD (p)
DC (p)
NC (p)
TN (p)
SC (p)
AR (p)
AZ (p)
WV (c-GOP)
NM (c)
OK (p)

GA (p)
MI (p)
AL (p)
TX (p)
LA (p)
FL (p)
AK (c)
VA (p)
HI (c)
HI (c)
American Samoa (p)
C Caucus P Primary
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Important Qualities in Presidential Candidates
Charlton Research Company
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Most Important Set of Qualities
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Branding
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How Brands are Built
From the Bottom Up
Knowledge Esteem Relevance Differentiation
The culmination of brand building Understanding
of the candidates
Voter respect, regard and candidate reputation
Personal appropriateness of the brand Relates to
usage and the 5 Ps of marketing
Perceived distinctiveness of the brand The basis
for voter choiceWhat the brand stands for
Source Young Rubicam
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Generic Presidential Ballot
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Satisfaction With Party Choices
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White House Candidates
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Leading Candidate Attributes Positions
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Demography to Unite the US
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Personality Leadership Styles
White Knight
Politician

• Get things done
• Negotiator
• Deal maker, wheeler dealer

• Knowledgeable, perceived independence
• Up-scale, battier
• Trusted to do right

Problem Solver

• Doer, solve major issues
• Take charge find problems
• Occurs when leadership is in complete disarray

Care Taker
Manager

• Honest, average man
• Good job, protect economy
• Minority appeal

• Run like a business
• Efficient, common sense
• Fiscal responsibility

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Republican Democrat Brands
Charlton Research Company
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Republican Strategies

• McCain
• National Defense (war) Republicans, Independents,
  Maverick (DC outsider), Straight Talk Express
• Romney
• Business Acumen, Social Conservative, NE State
  Governor
• Huckabee
• Social Conservatives, Christian Evangelicals,
  Social Issues, Governor of AR, Southern Baptist
  Minister

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Republican Constituencies

• Republican base
• Independents
• Conservatives
• Moderates/Liberals
• Evangelicals
• Veterans

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2008 Republican Primary Candidates
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• Republicans Do Not Have a Way to Rationalize the
  Bush Presidency

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Super Tuesday Most Important Quality in
Republican Candidate
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Moral Values

• Political Terms
• Abortion
• Marriage between man and woman
• Pledge of Allegiance
• Gay marriage and civil unions
• Nationalism flag symbol
• Cultural
• Born Again Evangelical
• Church attendance
• New Age
• Non-Christian sects
• Values War
• Family
• Truth, Honesty, Integrity

CHARLTON RESEARCH COMPANY
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Democrat Strategies

• Obama
• Change, Hope, The Future, New Approaches and
  Ideas, Visionary, African American, Anti-War
  Democrats, Outside DC
• Clinton
• Experience, Woman, Rank and File Democrats, Issue
  Solutions-Health Care-Immigration, Famous Husband

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Democrat Constituencies

• Obama
• African Americans
• White Men
• Post Graduates
• Weathy
• Ages 18 - 44

• Clinton
• Women
• Hispanics
• Ages 45
• Democrat base

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2008 Democratic Primary Candidates
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Good/Bad Thing That a Bush or Clinton Has Served
as President since 1989
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Super Tuesday Most Important Quality in
Democratic Candidate
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Change Model

• When change occurs, two things happen

Maintain the status quo Resist the change
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So, to be successful

• Learn to manage resistance
• Define how much change
• How far to go

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Leadership Defined
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Mood Issues
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Mood of the Nation












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Most Important Issue












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Super Tuesday Most Important Issue
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George W. Bush
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Job Approval George W. Bush












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Bush's Job Handling Iraq












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Job Approval George W. Bush












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Congress
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Job Approval Congress












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National Generic Congressional Ballot
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2008 General Election
Charlton Research Company
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Clinton Vs. McCain
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Obama Vs. McCain
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Clinton Vs. Huckabee
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Obama Vs. Huckabee
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What Does It Mean?
What Does It Mean?
Charlton Research Company
Charlton Research Company
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Criteria For Presidents

• Manage the national mood
• Solve the nations number one problem
• Acceptable job approval/favorability
• Personality counts in CEO elections

CHARLTON RESEARCH COMPANY
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2004 Presidential Election
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4
11
3
3
4
10
12
7
31
10
4
7
3
17
3
21
4
7
20
5
15
5
21
11
5
3
10
5
9
13
11
8
3
6
55
15
11
8
7
6
5
10

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9
15
9
34
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3
4
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The End of The Red The Blue

• Gertrude Himmelfarb
• One Nation, Two Cultures
• 2000 National Election
• Bush Vs. Gore
• James Hunter, Professor of Religion, Culture
  Social Theory, University of Virginia
• Is There a Culture War? A Dialogue on Values and
  American Public Life
• Morris Fiorina, Hoover Institution at Stanford
  University
• The Myth of a Polarized America

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Most Important Challenge Facing Mankind - Michael
Crichton
The greatest challenge facing mankind is the
challenge of distinguishing ________ from
_________.
Reality
Propaganda
Truth
(from)
Fantasy
Perceiving the Truth has always been a
challenge to mankind.
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Thinking Ahead, and Back
2016
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TITLE PAGE
The Pulse Of The Nation
Charlton Research Company
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To Every Age There Is A Purpose The Turnings
The Turnings
The First Turning or High is an upbeat era when
institutions grow stronger and individualism
weakens, such as the post-WWII period of euphoria
and complacency that lasted into the early 1960s.
High
The Second Turning is the Awakening, an era of
passionate idealism and spiritual upheaval, when
the civic order undergoes challenges from people
with new ideas and values-as in the consciousness
revolution that reached from the student revolts
of the late 1960s to tax revolts of the early
1980s.
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Awakening
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Unraveling
The Third Turning or Unraveling, is a downcast
period of strengthening individualism and
weakening institutions. Today we are midway
through a third turning.
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Crisis
The Forth Turning is theCrisis-an era of
political upheaval that could last into the 2020s.
Source The Fourth Turning An American
Prophecy Neil Howe William Strauss.
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Millennial Cycle 1946-2026 (?)
The Turnings
(1946-1964) AMERICAN HIGH America becomes global
superpower strengthening middle class suburbs
and interstate highways bland End of Ideology
modernism.
High
(1964-1984) CONSCIOUSNESS REVOLUTION From Urban
and campus revolts to tax revolts environmental,
feminist movements divorce epidemic, rise in
violent crime.
Awakening
Unraveling
(1984-2005?) CULTURE WARS High-tech
individualism family values moralism worries
about crime, incivility, civic decay and cultural
exhaustion.
(2005-2026?) NEXT FOURTH TURNING Resolute new
mood catalyzes sometime in the Oh-Oh Decade
crisis climaxes a decade or two later.
Crisis
Source The Fourth Turning An American
Prophecy Neil Howe William Strauss.