Anthony B. Perkins

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San Diego Venture GroupIntroducing the
Always On generation

• Anthony B. Perkins
• Chairman Editor-in-Chief
• June 26th, 2002

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What did we learn from the Internet Bubble?
12000.00
150 billion market cap
Yahoo
Nasdaq
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90 of the entrepreneurial, economic and
investment opportunities associated with the
Internet and the web are still ahead of us. -
Red Herrings Prediction
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Introducing the Always On generation

• 74 of teens use IM several times a week, and
  claim that it plays a major role in their lives
• While they still prefer the phone, 20 say that
  they use IM to contact their friends
• 17 used IM to break-up with someone
• 30 have developed new friends using IM
• 94 use IM for homework, 41 get help from
  teachers by email, 17 use Internet to cheat
• 12 to 17 year old kids in the United States

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The emerging PANs and HANs
2001
2005
Internet Surfers (global) 500 million 2
billion Cell phone users 1 billion 2
billion Text messages sent (global) 360
billion 1.2 trillion Broadband access (U.S.) 8
million 20 million Households with Internet TV
(global) 12 million 200 million Mobile
services (global) 200 billion 800 billion
One billion will come from new mobile users
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U.S. Internet Traffic Growth
Projected at 4x / year
4x / year
2.8x / year
U.S. Internet Traffic
Source Dr. Roberts et al., 2001 (Caspian Net)
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The Geeks versus the Moguls
1 CD MP3 Music (55.0)
15 min Streaming Video (32.1)
24 Digital Photos (18.0)
Large PowerPoint File (8.0)
Large web page (0.1)
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Broadband the currency of change
Bandwidth power is growing at least three times
faster than computing power. - George
Gilder
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The Real-time Economy Dell-ize or die

• Over 90 of Ciscos and Dells sales are
  facilitated over the Internet
• Dells Austin manufacturing plant carries neither
  raw materials nor finished goods
• Cisco has used e-learning to train and certify
  over 300,000 networking specialists
• Dells return on investment is over 800, and has
  a negative 24-day float
• Cisco spends 6 on IT, almost twice the average

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B2B Explosion Still AheadIT will provide over
2 times the productivity in the next 10 years
than it did in the last 10 years. Bill Gates
2000
2005
B2B commerce (global) 131 billion 3-6
trillion IM users at Work (U.S.) 13.4
million 50 million /Sales spent on IT
(U.S.) 3.5 6 IT as a of GDP 20 30 Total
of IT spending 100 billion 1.6
trillion
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U.S. Businesses and Waves of Applications
Wave 1 In the Past 3 Years
Wave 2 In the Next 3 Years
Wave 3 2004-2011
45 of U.S. businesses currently working on Wave
1 applications
10 of U.S. businesses have moved on to Wave 2
applications
3 of U.S. businesses have completed more than
50 of Wave 1 and 2 applications

• eMarketing
• Customer service and support
• eCommerce
• Finance
• Human resources
• Note Prelminary data

• Procurement/MRO
• Sales force automation
• Supply chain management

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Smart Networks Productivity Boost
U.S. businesses adoption of network-enabled
applications is the single most important factor
on future productivity growth.
Productivity Growth
2.1
Accounting for .
40
1.2
1974
1995
2001
2011
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The Real-time Generation of Companies

• Real-Time Synchronization Software
• Access360
• Oblix
• Savant Technology
• Acxiom
• Microsoft
• Novell
• Real-Time Business Layer
• Groove
• Zaplet
• Blaze Software
• KnowNow
• Software Adapter Level
• Tibco Software
• Virtra Systems
• WebMethods
• Mercator Software

• Mobile Devices
• Apple
• Compaq
• Ericsson
• Handspring
• NTT/DoCoMo
• Noikia
• Palm
• Think Outside
• Real-Time Supply Chain Software
• SeeCommerce
• I2 Technologies
• Tillion
• PowerMarket
• Manugistics
• Real-Time Alert Layer
• KnowNow

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Betting on the anti-trends

• The best time to be an entrepreneur is when MBA
  applications are up
• The best time to be VC is in the middle of a VC
  shakeout
• Most costly investments in the webconsumer
  behavior conversionhave been made
• The best time to start a company is during a
  recession Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, H-P, and
  Disney
• Leading companys of new era go public after the
  bubble Dell, Compaq and Microsoft

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The new networked world order

• Innovation and entrepreneurial capitalism have
  gone international
• The rising paradox between new communities and
  new isolation
• Big brother becomes a reality
• The rise of cyber gangs and network thievery
• The emergence of the virtual nations and cults

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The authentic entrepreneur is our hero

• Innovative (Andy Grove/Jobs)
• Focused (Gates/Jobs)
• Cheap (Michael Dell)
• Competitive (McNealy, Ellison, Chambers)
• Risk Takers (all of the above)

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These overnight successes sure take a helluva
long time. - Steve Jobs CEO, Apple
Computer
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Turning Off - Will it be possible?
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To Recap - Tonys Top 10 Trends

• 1.      Cost of being a web entrepreneur is at
  all-time low.2.      The Always On Generation
  (12 to 19 year olds) will show us the way to new
  applications and services.3.      This year the
  number of non-PC devices hooked to the web will
  exceed PCs hooked to the web.4.      Consumers
  are increasingly downloading entertainment
  content over the web.
• 5.      B2B transaction over the web is still
  exploding.

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Tonys Top 10 Trends Cont.

• 6.      Networked enabled applications are
  continuing to drive productivity curves.7.     
  All numbers associated with the web are still
  moving up and to the right - including the
  number of surfers, data traffic, and average
  bits sent per user.8.      Great entrepreneurs
  are still the folks to bet on Steve Jobs, Bill
  Gates, John Chambers, Scott McNealy, Michael
  Dell and Larry Ellison.9.      The new
  networked world will increasingly present social
  and political challenges such as security and
  the rise of cyber-terrorism, creating new
  opportunities for entrepreneurs to solve.10.    
  Red Herring has become the media source of choice
  for those participating in the business of
  innovation.?